Despair has a certain utility. Hopefully clinging to hopeless ideals or delusions leads to nothing but failure. Recognizing reality, ie: despairing of the idea that the Blue Pill (for example) is valid, can be quite liberating.
How that freedom is expressed is another issue entirely of course.
Posted by: jabrwok at Wed Sep 2 11:49:23 2020 (BlRin)
1. Unsurvivable storm surge with large and destructive waves will cause catastrophic damage from Sea Rim State Park, Texas, to Intracoastal City, Louisiana, including Calcasieu and Sabine Lakes.
This surge could penetrate up to 40 miles inland from the immediate coastline, and flood waters will not fully recede for several days after the storm.
2. Hurricane-force winds are expected tonight in portions of the hurricane warning area, with catastrophic wind damage expected where Laura's eyewall moves onshore. Hurricane-force winds and widespread damaging wind gusts will spread well inland into portions of extreme eastern Texas and western Louisiana early Thursday.
3. Widespread flash flooding along small streams, urban areas, and roadways is expected to begin overnight tonight into Thursday from far eastern Texas into Louisiana and Arkansas. This will also lead to minor to moderate freshwater river flooding. The heavy rainfall
threat and flash and urban flooding potential will spread
northeastward into the middle-Mississippi, lower Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys Friday night and Saturday.
I don't recall ever seeing the word "unsurvivable" in a forecast before.
A full assessment of the damage wrought by the Category 4 system was
likely to take days. But initial reports offered hope that Laura,
despite leaving entire neighborhoods in ruins and more than 875,000
people without power, was not the annihilating menace that forecasters
"It is clear that we did not sustain and suffer the
absolute, catastrophic damage that we thought was likely," Louisiana
Gov. John Bel Edwards said. "But we we have sustained a tremendous
amount of damage," he said.
Actually, I'm much more concerned about the inland path of this storm as it's following a path very similar to Camille. This is reportedly a wet storm and the potential for unpleasantness in Appalachia due to orographic precipitation is high.
Good Lord, that Wells Fargo story is horrible!
WF are scum. I had a car loan through them and my payment was due a couple days before payday. I called about 5 times asking them to send me a form to move my payment date and they never sent one, so I spent a couple of years getting hit with $25 or so late payments every month.
Posted by: Rick C at Mon Aug 24 09:16:39 2020 (Iwkd4)
Yep, WF definitely should have outlined that policy to you. It's either bad training or a backdoor way into additional fees. Not telling you how things work when you explicitly were asking for something outside of policy kinda leans me towards the latter (or maybe a combination based on which level of personnel you're talking about). If your loan statements and/or receipts were giving you a "your next payment will be due on xxxx" date that was getting further and further into the future...you may have a decent UDAAP case.
That said, this is an interesting case study in how "reasonableness" and "in the best interests of the consumer" are nebulous concepts to hang regulation on. I can see where you're coming from in terms of trying to get several months ahead to guard against unforeseen events. I argue that, for the general person at least, if not you personally, it is at least as reasonable to get 1 month ahead and put the rest towards principal in order to reduce the total payment amount. The short version of the argument being that 1 is as arbitrary a cutoff as 2 or 3 would be*. In an ideal world, an even more optimal strategy might be to get 1 month ahead, put 1-2 months of payments into a some sort of interest bearing near-cash*, and then put the rest towards principal. This preserves ~3 months of cushion which maximizing the total payment reduction. I suspect that you'd have landed on a process something like that if WF had actually told you that you couldn't be 13 months ahead.
*YMMV here, mostly my argument is that it's not facially unreasonable to argue that the cushion provided from 1-3 months is approximately the same.
**I recommend against the stock market for this, btw. The risk that something causing a hit to the market would cause a hit to short term personal income at the same time is quite high. I'm not saying that anything that might cause you to access that safety net would force you to sell a dip, but rather that something that forces a significant stock market dip would probably cause you to need to sell the dip to access those funds. The fact that the long term zero interest rate policy is driving up the cost of liquidity for the general pubic is, sadly, a separate problem.
Posted by: Really Bored at Mon Aug 24 13:23:04 2020 (7vK48)
The problem with WF was that unlike, for example, BofA, they refused to play along with "voluntary" excommunication of firearm-related businesses. So, they were the last refuge of various LGS-type people, and cannot easily be disposed of. My own company banks at BBVA by keeping a low profile and registering as "miscellaneous parts manufacturing".
Bored: no, what happened was simply that my payment due date happened to be, say, on the 10th, and my pay schedule was such that I got paid (semimonthly) on the 15th, and at the time, since I paid the rent with my other paycheck, and didn't have a lot of extra money, I couldn't really make the payment on time. Lots of companies are willing to shift your due date around a few days here or there over the phone. WF was in theory willing to--but you had to call them, and ask them to mail you a paper form to fill out and mail back to them. Incredibly stupid. I asked them 5 times to do so and never received it, so my payments were late every month for just about the entire loan period, which probably hurt my credit rating, too, in addition to the late fees. That wasn't the only problem I had with them; every time I needed a new debit card, either because the current one died or expired, I would go into my local branch and ask for a new one, and it would never appear, so a few weeks later, I would have to go in again and ask a second time. That happened to me three separate times over several years.
Posted by: Rick C at Mon Aug 24 22:01:35 2020 (Iwkd4)
Rick C.: Sorry, I was talking about the Muppet's woes specifically. Yours were/are standard lender douchebaggery, yeah. Tho usually there's a grace period (by law) before they can charge a late fee, so again...might have a UDAAP case (IANAL, etc, etc).
Pete: Yep, I fled BofA because of that. And cited that decision in writing on the "why are you leaving?" question. I skipped over to a credit union (DCU) to avoid the general big bank problem.
Posted by: Really Bored at Tue Aug 25 17:03:54 2020 (7vK48)
I used to use Wells Fargo because they bought the bank I used before that. They encouraged people to use their Debit cards, and I was in the habit, then they announced that they were going to "Experiment" with charging you a $3.00 fee if you used your Debit card any month.
I decided to "Experiment" with a different bank and went with a local credit union loosely affiliated with my employer (but actually only requiring that you live in this state). I got interest on my checking, a much lower rate on my cards, and ATMs if I was so inclined actually at work.
WF eventually decided not to kill the goose, but the goose left anyway. I keep the credit card and only use it when they threaten to drop it for inactivity just for the cost of maintaining the account.
Posted by: Mauser at Wed Aug 26 23:36:47 2020 (Ix1l6)
This is extremely disappointing. They previous 3 hurricanes were a big fat nothing: 2 out of 3 failed to land, and the one that did barely sprinkled around around Corpus Christi. I think the winds in the eye of that were 80 mph. Pathetic! The global warming was supposed to make us many strong storms, but absolutely nothing is happening! And now they promised that 1 of these 2 next storsm was going to pass over my house, but it's now canceled?! It seems to be turning to New Orleans now. Outrageous.
Well, we actually had 1.36" this morning, and it got all my rain barrels filled, but still. People really need to buy more SUVs or something.
Marco was a great big nothingburger. But I've got my eye on Laura. She just keeps edging west and looks to be strengthening...
Posted by: Ubu at Tue Aug 25 07:37:02 2020 (UlsdO)
I hope Laura doesn't do too much damage, as I'm moving to Galveston in two weeks.
Posted by: Rick C at Tue Aug 25 08:58:15 2020 (Iwkd4)
Galveston? Meh, it's safe.
We're a night away from Laura's landfall and I went to Skyvector for a quick look at Houston area TAF (Terminal Aerodrome Forecast). Sugarland promises gusts of 24 knots, Ellington - 45 knots, Bush Intercontinental - 25 knots.
There may be some storm surge but I think 3-4 feet at the most.
Posted by: Ubu at Sun Aug 23 02:47:31 2020 (UlsdO)
It is not like they have ever had the moral high ground even on this topic, but the SJW/Progressive types have always been big on trying to legalize/normalize 'adult-child' love. The main differences are 1) They are a lot more open about it; and 2) Since people they don't like are against the 'love,' they automatically support it because 'bad people don't like it.'
Posted by: cxt217 at Sun Aug 23 15:27:10 2020 (4i7w0)
First world Problems That May Presage Larger Issues
Today I ran some errands and took the opportunity to stop at a hot dog joint that has turned itself into a drive-in due to COVID. I actually ordered a cheeseburger, as this is easier to eat on the road, and the burgers at the place are excellent.
Except this wasn't. It was not terrible but something was...off. It took a minute but I figured out what the issue was. The cheeseburger was actually a cheesewhiz burger.
Such supply chain disruptions are only going to get worse are only going to get worse after the recent derecho wiped out 10 million acres of cropland. That storm may be far more consequential than most hurricanes, though it's getting diffident coverage, perhaps because most of those affected were not in 'relevant' zip codes. However, the knock-on effects need to be looked at. A lot of that grain goes to animal feed. Beef is already pricy, because of disruptions due to COVID, but, for instance, with regard to chicken farming the next brood of chicks may not have enough grain in the pipeline.
In addition to this oddball storm, there is believed to be a La Nina event developing, those tend to have deleterious effects on the grain crops of the U.S., as well as the big South American grain producers like Argentina and Paraguay.
At this point we do not recommend taking a long position in grains until after the US harvest. It is possible that a developing La Nina could mean higher grain prices later in 2020 or 2021 if South American grain production is hurt.
Furthermore, a good portion of this years crop has actually been promised to the Chinese, who, with their own food security issues, are depending on the large shipments of grain they signed the trade deal in exchange for.
It's unclear how big an issue the lost crops are going to be in the long run. The U.S. has a lot of reserve capacity after all. However the recent supply chain disruptions may be a compounding factor, and in any event have demonstrated that our food supply chain is more vulnerable to disruptions due to non-intuitive domino effects.
Stock up on food. This is likely to be a rough winter.
Or this all could just be a hysterical overreaction to a bad customer service experience.
Nope. Didn't See THIS Coming.
France has deployed fighters, a Helicopter Carrier and a frigate to Cyprus in order to deter a feared Turkish invasion of Greece.
Turkey sent an oil exploration vessel into Greek territorial waters with a strong naval escort. The Greeks then sent a naval force to eject the trespassers whereupon hijinks ensued...exactly what sort of hijinks is unclear but it involved either an accidental collision or deliberate ramming between a Greek and a Turkish warship.
There's been weirdness going on on the Graeco-Turkish border for some time (not counting the fact that Greece fought many wars with Turkey from its independence 202 years ago to after WW1). As recently as May, Turkey invaded a 1.6 hectare piece of Greek marsh (yes, 4 acres). This was ostensibly in response to the meandering of the Evros river, which is on the border, but it raised tensions. The recent naval confrontations are not reducing those tensions, and given Turkish President Ergodan's expansionist rhetoric, the French have just put their foot down. This is a small force, little more than a tripwire, but it is good to see that the French at least are taking this situation seriously.
This is getting coverage, but it's very much back page coverage. I suppose that's to be expected. I mean really, who ever heard of some damned fool thing in the Balkans ever amounting to anything newsworthy?
I remember waking up and be relieved that I don't need to go to the university anymore for a few years after graduation. I think I might've also get off a wrong subway stop out of habit, too.
BTW, Wonderduck set me on a pathway of watching Japanese train cams. Apparently they have a train called "Commodore Perry's Black Ships Series".
The issue of China's food security is a problem that's been simmering for some time. However, as we pointed out back in January, "What we can be reasonably confident of is that the Chinese Communist Party, being a totalitarian state, is going to try to cover-up or minimize the situation to the maximum extent possible and even rather beyond credulity."
As we observed at that time with Corona-Chan, the fact that this grave blunder was being acknowledged and the public was not only being informed but enlisted to help deal with an issue, is a leading indicator that the Chinese government is scared of said issue. That proved a prescient observation regarding the beer-bug. This is why Xi's exortation to not waste food is so concerning.
On the face of it, one's typical reaction to troubles for a brutal, totalitarian, genocidal state might seem to fall somewhere between, "So!? We've got other problems....mostly Chicom problems.", and "feel good story of the day".
However it should be remembered that the Politburo is not going to miss a meal. Over a billion people will suffer and many of them will die horrifically if this famine comes to pass. But there is more to ponder than that.
'Fear not the angry man nearly so much as the hungry man.'
That applies to people mobs and nations.The politburo will do anything stay in charge and protect itself, and will go to insane lengths to alleviate, or at least distract from its people's suffering. China is a nuclear power...in possession of most of our manufacturing capacity. A short sharp war to distract from famine of capture some crops might seem like a good idea to scared officials holding angry mobs at bay.
As Seneca said: "A hungry people listens not to reason, nor cares for justice, nor is bent by any prayers, or pleas for mercy."
Keep an eye on this situation. It may ultimately be the most consequential of this years curveballs. And keep a month of two's worth of food in your home at all times.
Nerdette's Newstand has been fairly solid in her reporting, but she's hardly a firebrand and I did not expect this.
The scary part of this video is the video she tacks onto the end. I think it is a Jon Birch film. But that's not why it's scary. It's scary because things have gone so very pear shaped that the Birchers were actually right and laid out everything that's happened.
I haven't watched the video yet, but I'll note that the Bitchute link that was added previously no longer seems to appear on these posts.
Also, while I like the concept of Bitchute as an alternative to YouTube, most of the videos that I play fromt here these days come through at such a low resolution that wathing them is becoming annoying (I have a high bandwidth connection, but use a VPN which I think is causing downgrading). At least when YouTube does that, I can force the videos to highest resolution.
Posted by: StargazerA5 at Fri Aug 7 10:12:03 2020 (EYnmJ)
That link is manually added unless the blogger is an idiot and forgets it.
Fortunately I an a geniu...Oh.
Hampton Roads was on the eastern side of the thing as it ran north and its 20 to 35 mph forward speed was added to a wind speed of 60-70 mph when it arrived here. Add in a few tornadoes and the intense rain and the storm was able to make its passage known.
I do have a bit of advice for Americans who live in disaster prone areas. The day to order your 95-150 pound generators is not right after the storm comes and cuts your power. Also try to not order those on the same day that 30,000 other people did. Your UPS driver will thank you and your order won't risk being delayed by choking the system with huge boxes that fill up all the trucks.
Note that my center did get all the packages out without rolling over or delaying anything, but it was a near run thing and, anyway, it's the thought that counts.
I read the book at least twice, and I've seen the movie, and it would have gone over my head as well. Apparently I need to refresh myself on the finer details, as opposed to just the broad concept.
Posted by: David at Tue Aug 4 01:09:20 2020 (L65WS)
For something more recent than 1984, try the ST:TNG episode Chain of Command, where a Cardassian, trying to break Picard's will through torture, has four lights shining behind him and tries to get Picard to say there are 5 lights. It was a major theme of the storyline.
Posted by: Rick C at Tue Aug 4 09:41:43 2020 (Iwkd4)
So apparently this 2+2=5 thing is actually the latest bit of stupidity from the left, part of the weird idea that Math is Racist.
Posted by: Mauser at Sun Aug 9 03:13:07 2020 (Ix1l6)
This thing has stayed on track for almost a week. It's moved slightly west even. That is really unusual.
It's not a particularly bad storm, but it is looking to be rather wet, so while I'm not terribly concerned I expect problems with flooding. I'm actually more concerned about people in the Acela Corridor, Which this storm is straddling. It's going through areas with people who aren't familiar with how much flooding these things can cause.