"Welcome to Beacon"
In the last episode of RWBY, the plot advanced a bit before being interrupted by spectacular action that was basically gratuitous albeit entertaining. By contrast, this episode is a series of quiet conversations interspersed with teenagers playing something akin to Risk. This was the better episode.
They've really come a long way from last season with both the animation and in particular the pacing....
More Worries
Another, slightly less disturbing map. This time via Moe Lane.
I was initially skeptical since I know that Virginia's number one cause of death in the above category is Chessie, however it occurred to me that the map does not necessarily contradict that.
1
Ebola is extremely scary, but not very infectious. The main way it spreads it via unsafe handling of late-stage victims and corpses. Standard medical and mortuary procedure in the West would go a great way to preventing it spread even if it wasn't immediately identified.
Influenza kills more people each day than this entire months-long outbreak of ebola. Doesn't that make you feel better?
Posted by: Pixy Misa at Fri Aug 1 05:48:43 2014 (PiXy!)
2
I've seen this described as the most "virulent" outbreak ever, which would be a cause for concern except that I'm not sure the reporters quite understand what virulent means.
I do note that a number of top flight doctors have gotten it in spite of PPE. The Nigerian Ebola specialist certainly knew what he was doing and I know some people working for Samaratain's Purse and they are professionals. OTOH having done HAZMAT response for 12 years, I can well imagine that full PPE all day in Senegal or Nigeria could cause mistakes to be made.
But yes, unless this bug mutates goes airborne, the much greater likliehood of dying by suffocation or heart failure from Influenza is indeed reassuring, and both possibilities distract from the possibility of a general war breaking out, a Carrington event, or, of particular concern to me, those damnable dragons.
Thanks Pixy.
Posted by: The Brickmuppet at Fri Aug 1 13:01:18 2014 (DnAJl)
Railgun S First Thoughts
Having watched episode 1 of A Certain Scientific Railgun SI have a couple of very preliminary observations.
First, I'm struck by the fact that this does not feel like a different series at all. This episode is following right on the heels of the finale of the previous series, for instance Uiharu and Saten still have Haruue as their roommate and the three of them have enlisted Misaka to help them respond to one aspect of the previous show's aftermath. This series is NOT a standalone purchase.
Misaka thus far remains one of the more likable anime heroines I've seen.
On the other hand the episode introduces Shoukuho Misaki and in 2 minutes manages to establish her as of the most repulsive and genuinely scary antagonists I've ever seen.
This girl needs to die a lot.
She's arrogant, presumptuous, cruel, has no respect for personal space, thinks of people as objects for her amusement, and, being absolutely gorgeous, has a fawning cadre of "retainers". It's unclear if her fans are simply poor judges of character or are victims as she is a level 5 mind controller. She seems particularly upset that Misaka is immune to her talent and in a momentary fit of pique demonstrates that "Level 5" and "Mind Control" should never be allowed to overlap.
Which begs the question. What the hell were the people who study and train these kids thinking? Gracious!
Beyond that the premiere is a standard Railgun episode establishing what decent people Misaka and most of her friends are and why they tolerate Kuroko...because she is very useful to have around when Misaka needs to do something gratuitously awesome.
The good news is that Misaki (aka "Mental Out") doesn't show up again in the series except for a cameo in the last episode.
Which is good because in the canon she eventually does something really foul to Mikoto, which they didn't include in this series. I thought Mikoto would kill her for it, but I guess that's a step too far for Mikoto, who seems to be the only Level 5 who isn't a sociopath.
Misaki is a sociopath, and there's a strong implication that she is too old to be in middle school, but stays there by using her power to change everyone's memory, including administrators. (And if you think Misaki is a monster, wait until you see Accelerator.)
Her fawning cadre aren't that way because she's beautiful. She uses her power to rewrite their memories to make them that way.
The first 16 episodes this time are the Sisters arc, which is dark dark dark but has a good ending. The rest of the series (beginning ep 19) is the SIlent Party arc, which is great from start to finish.
2
I don't buy the party line on the protags in Railgun. In my opinion they are pretty awful [1], with lower ranks being less so. Railgun's lesbian friend is the only anime character ever who made me consider how I should kill her (my answer is the poison: can't teleport out of that). Of course, any such thinking is pointless and the main character magic will make them triumph. For that reason I'm not going to root for any antagonists like the girl pictured in the post: they are all puppets of the screenwriter, made to be sacrificed.
At least Naruto and Goku used the main character magic for good.
[1] (with the exception of a techer woman that seemed human)
Posted by: Pete Zaitcev at Thu Jul 31 14:38:26 2014 (RqRa5)
3
Oh you get no arguments from me on Kuroko. She's a rotten human being. In an earlier post I lamented
(*She tries (and fails spectacularly) to drug and presumably molest Mikoto at least twice...I mean good Lord, she's pretty much horrible. The only reason she's a "good guy" is because she feels personally invested in her identity as a Judgement officer, likes the power she gets from the job and is the vector for getting Mikoto and the others involved in the larger story. Yes she's comic relief, but.... )
However, I think Mikoto is pretty decent. She's not perfect but just the fact that she's fairly she's down to earth is a major accomplishment given that everyone else we've seen on her level is corrupted by their power and they do not seem to be discouraged from that.
She's also a "good guy" for the right reasons, as opposed to Kuroko who is on a power trip.
Posted by: The Brickmuppet at Thu Jul 31 16:46:37 2014 (DnAJl)
4
What were they thinking? Something like this. (spoilers for Index, also quite dark...)
"The supernatural exists, including literal angels and literal demons. Some of these supernatural entities have as their objective the complete extermination of humanity. Those are -angels-, the demons are considerably worse. Disaster has so far been staved off only by the intervention of a power-mad church willing to plumb any depths of sin in order to preserve its own secret mastery. Humankind is at the precipice over a sea of horrors where the living would envy the dead.
We have discovered a method by which psychic powers can be induced in test subjects. The method only works on children. Our theories for why it works at all, and exactly what it does, are incomplete and patchy.
We do not have the luxury of time. We require that this potential be developed into weapons - weapons stronger than nukes. Your mission is to deliver those weapons in time to save the world. Any means will be tolerated. Balk at no ethical considerations. The only unacceptable outcome is failure. Get to work, Dr. Mengele."
No, of course not literally. But that's essentially a good description of the situation - in Index, the world is literally one Touma away from apocalypse at one point. If you were the sort of person who can be a nuclear strategist, this is kind of the ultimate nightmare scenario. Threats you do not understand, popping up according to logic you do not understand, responsive to no pressure you can bring to bear, some of which are pinpricks and some of which are mortal blows, and your only defense is an organization who won't talk to you and is willing to kill you just to hide its own existence...
In that situation, the existence of Academy City can be understood - a kind of Manhattan Project that refines little kids instead of uranium, ghastly if you have the right details, but happy enough on the surface that most people can fool themselves into thinking that everything is all right. Of course the scientists are evil - who else would, or could, do what they do? Yet if you believe that those things must be done, then all you can do is tell them to get to it and try not to watch how much fun they're having.
Railgun is about Academy City itself; Index sets it in a world that almost, almost justifies how monstrous it is. It's a shame that Railgun is just a much better show; by itself it's incomplete, but getting through enough Index to get the background means, well, slogging through Index...
Posted by: Avatar_exADV at Thu Jul 31 18:33:28 2014 (zJsIy)
Railgun S pretty much overlaps the first Index series in time. Ep 15 of Railgun S covers the same event as ep 14 of Index. (Though there's a bit of Rashomon difference in the telling.)
I watched the first Index series but didn't watch the second one. And I didn't have any trouble keeping up with events in either Railgun series.
7
My headcanon for Index/Railgun (not having read the books), is that they live in a lesser creation - one in which the Creator left a crazy number of backdoors in his code, which angels, demons, and people have been using to run amuck throughout history. Touma is a "reset" - his Imagine Breaker is identical with the intent of the Creator, which means only reality survives his touch. All the various hacks, backdoors, and cheats, which the espers and magicians and so forth are using to work their will on the world, are egotistical alterations to the Creation as intended, perversions of the literal will of god, and are negated by his right hand.
He's pretty much a walking relic, a saint. It's a hell of a thing to hang on a teen protagonist, aligning him with the original will of god. And people complain about "Jesus Yamato"!
Posted by: Mitch H. at Fri Aug 1 09:21:03 2014 (jwKxK)
8
They discuss that in pseudo-scientific terms in Index, actually. Essentially, the theory is that the esper generates a "personal reality" in which their power can function, and that the strength of the esper is largely related to how successful they are at superimposing that reality on consensus reality.
By extension, Touma is either extremely powerful, OR his power just has a much easier time of it (because he's not really modifying base reality, just reasserting it or disrupting the modifications to it that are made by others). Difference between pushing the boulder uphill and pushing it down, maybe?
Of course, that might not be what's actually going on (and, frankly, it's not directly contradicting your theory either, just couched in different terms.)
Posted by: Avatar_exADV at Fri Aug 1 17:47:04 2014 (zJsIy)
9
So (says The Brickmuppet, oblivious to the grammatical error he is committing), there's this new character that's been introduced (says The Brickmuppet with a hint of unease in his voice), and her first job is to clean up a "mess"in the testing room (says The Brickmuppet with a rising intonation). Oh my God, this just got grim (says the Brickmuppet unimaginatively blaspheming to emphasize his discomfort.)
Posted by: The Brickmuppet at Sat Aug 2 01:04:27 2014 (DnAJl)
1
He said it appeared the containment system worked. "It limited the problem to one faulty cell. It contained the problem and vented the fumes outside the airplane, as designed," he said, basing his comments on Japan Airlines' initial statements about the incident.
Posted by: Steep Series at Tue Feb 10 13:31:52 2015 (jD0ud)
2
that's one of the more impressive spam non sequiters I've seen.
2
Note to self: When Pixy says not to click on something...
Pixy is always right. Pixy is always right. Pixy is always right.
Pixy is always right. Pixy is always right. Pixy is always right.
Pixy is always right. Pixy is always right. Pixy is always right.
Pixy is always right. Pixy is always right. Pixy is always right.
Pixy is always right. Pixy is always right. Pixy is always right.
Pixy is always right. Pixy is always right. Pixy is always right.
Pixy is always right. Pixy is always right. Pixy is always right.
Pixy is always right. Pixy is always right. Pixy is always right.
Pixy is always right. Pixy is always right. Pixy is always right.
Pixy is always right. Pixy is always right. Pixy is always right.
Posted by: The Brickmuppet at Tue Jul 29 15:30:05 2014 (DnAJl)
3
I thought at first that was what the series of tweets was leading up to - at the end of the story would be the reveal - AND IT ALMOST HAPPENED!
But no, it's just a case of art being 15 minutes behind life.
100 Years Ago July 28, 1914
Kaiser Wilhelm the Second's compromise proposal was presented to Emperor Franz Joseph at noon.
At 11:00 AM Emperor Franz Joseph had signed a declaration of war against Serbia. Just before midnight, the Austrio-Hungarian river gunboat SMS Bodrog fired the first shots of World War 1.
SMS Bodrog The oddity on the bow is a mine-sweeping device.
SMS Bodrog today after service in 4 navies and three wars.
Love Lab
A 13 episode CGDCT series from last year, Love Lab passed beneath my radar though I became tangentially aware of it when I tracked down the source of some animated .gifs I had appropriated for some posts. I initially avoided it like the plague because I looked at the poster and drew the erroneous conclusion that it was based on a dating sim.
Realizing my error, I recently gave it a shot and discovered that it is...different.
Not a vampire...honest.
Meet Riko. She is an athletically inclined young lady from a modest middle class background. While not naturally gifted academically she has worked her butt off and through sheer force of will succeeded in transferring into the prestigious Fuji Girls School. She's got a couple of things going for her, she's extremely athletic and has that "mysterious transfer student" vibe, and as such a number of the student body are in awe of her. Our heroine is oblivious to this or her nickname "Wild Rinko" in part because she has never been popular. As a kid she hung out with the boys, who she frequently beat up and earned a reputation as demonic horror wench...the fangs probably exacerbated this.
In any event, one day she is instructed by a teacher to drop some papers by the student council office, where, having forgotten to knock, she makes a horrifying discovery.
First some background...Maki, the student council president, is extremely good at her job, a straight "A" student and greatly admired by the student body and teachers alike, so to walk in on her and find her making out with a comfort pillow named Huggy in the student council office is officially scandalous.
Well it gets worse. It seems that Maki has been using the student council to conduct experiments, and role playing sessions (with Huggy). She's turned it into a Love Lab in order to prepare herself for...romance.
She's already mastered the dramatic bloody cough
The fact that any contact with boys is grounds for expulsion only makes this abuse of school facilities more scandalous and dark secrets must be kept. Riko is drafted into being the POTSC's aid, partly in order to keep Maki's secret and partly to give a non-pillow perspective on Maki's ideas. When Riko points out that most of Maki's notions are stark-raving cuckoo for Cocoa Puffs, Maki gets the impression that Riko's extensive experience with boys is actually extensive EXPERIENCE with boys. Riko's failure to clarify this complicates everything further and hilarity ensues as several other oddball students are drawn into this dark circle of depravity.
Love Lab breaks no new ground but it has very high production values and is a thoroughly pleasant show. The soundtrack is minimalist but surprisingly effective. I laughed and enjoyed it though the series has very limited rewatch value as most of the humor is based on surprises. It does get sappy towards the end as things begin to come to a head and some late series developments are not really resolved, I'm not sure if it was cut short or ran an episode too long. Nevertheless, I did not feel robbed or insulted and the show is upbeat, amusing and double entendres notwithstanding, not at all vulgar.
A spirited discussion on this topic has sprung up in the comments. My latest reply went long so here are a couple of random observations and opinions on the topic..
Russia is being a jackass in the Ukraine. However, their interest in Crimea and Sevastopol in particular is of vital importance to their nation. The Crimea is overwhelmingly ethnically Russian and Cossack so even if we were going by Wilsonian as opposed to Westphalian doctrine the ethnic self determination angle might give Russia a defensible position in that case.
We don't HAVE a doctrine at the moment , Wilsonian, Westphalian or even Carteresque, so that's irrelevant.
Which is one reason the parallels to 1930's Chekoslovakia cause concern.
Ukraine has grievances against Russia that are numerous and legitimate, including a large swath of their country that's uninhabitable for extended periods and mass graves filled by by Stalin with their brethren.
However, Ukraine is not a bunch of angels, with some very vocal members of their polity having anti-semitic and even neo-nazi ties. They have been using the Balkan conflict as a how-to manual rather than a cautionary tale. They are also pretty much a failed state.
We (the US) have, in the 20th century, normally supported self determination as a matter of national policy and a big chunk of eastern Ukraine is ethnically Russian.
Russia, like us, is fighting islamic extremists and would be a natural ally in this endeavor. In fact Russia has given a lot of assistance in that regard including overflight privileges to facilitate our fighting in Afganistan and providing intel on Chechen terrorists in the US which we ignored, thereby facilitating the Boston Bombing.
The plane shoot-down was a dreadful calamity, but the airline ignored warnings not to fly over a FRICKKING WAR ZONE where 3 transports had already been shot down. I don't think that Russia intentionally shot down an airliner. I cannot conceivably have gained them anything.
Is this patch of black earth which is a huge ethnic and political mess a place we want to really get involved in?
No.
But there is a problem with that.
We guaranteed The Ukraine that we would protect their territorial integrity if they acquiesced to our demands that they give up their nukes. So we actually do have an obligation to do something. It is a matter of global interest that we encourage non-proliferation. this is not achieved if a country that gives up its nukes is dismembered by others that did not.
Like, you know, Libya, who we promised not to poke at if they gave up their nuclear program. A promise we honored until the president leveraged the fact that the UK and France wanted to pay less for oil to support Muslim Brotherhood affiliated revolutions. Now North Africa is awash in weapons, thousands of MANPADS are in the hands of terrorists and Boko Haram is spreading pain and woe with weapons they got from Quaddaffi's arsenals. OTOH the oil is not flowing near as much now.
So the "We gave our word" and "nonproliferation" carts have left the barn. The sort of brinksmanship necessary to protect Ukraine's integrity would be fraught with opportunities for catastrophic, 1914 style miscalculation and tragedy even if we had level-headed, grounded professionals running our foreign policy.
We don't have that. We have the crew that threw away an admittedly phyrric victory, in the process giving Mesopotamia to ISIS, set North Africa aflame, and has been making fools of themselves in the Levant.
Given that the Libyan fiasco has pissed away any non-proliferation mojo that might be preserved by an adventure in Ukrania, poking the bear* does not survive even the most cursory cost benefit analysis. The moral calculus is dubious at best.
The only realistic way to deal with the destabilizing and dangerous situation that is our shattered credibility is to wait two years and say "Sorry...he was a fluke. We're back now".
Even then, our policy in this squalid European mess probably ought to be to bolster our newest NATO allies and provide humanitarian aid.
1
Basically agreed. The Ukraine makes a crappy ally, giving us no additional security or benefits, but legitimizing Russian fears that the US is happy to push the supposedly-not-aimed-at-Russia-anymore NATO alliance right up to Russia's doorstep everywhere.
That said, Russia does plenty of other stuff to tick off the US. Backing Syria, for example, doesn't really give Russia any internal benefits, other than keeping the US and other Western nations occupied with the resulting mess.
So, we can't effectively stop Russia from doing dastardly things in its near abroad, we don't really want to associate ourselves with the people those things are being done to, and we've got other things to worry about with them. Can't we even manage a little quid pro quo? You know, troll hints that we'll happily sell the Ukranians a thousand MBTs at a discount, then say "you know, if you guys let Syria swing in the wind, we'll back off this one", kind of thing?
The alternative is to quit pretending that Russia is a friendly nation at all - at best an unfriendly rival, at worst still an enemy despite the fall of the Soviet Union. Treat 'em accordingly. Freeze them out of markets, disrupt their supply chains, isolate them politically, maybe even the sort of low-level sabotage that we used to get up to (good luck defending those pipelines, Putin...) Make it clear that pissing us off has a cost and that we're perfectly happy to go on screwing with them. If "well, we don't want to start World War 3" can be used to deter us from taking drastic action, surely it works in the other direction - and if the Soviet Union couldn't manage to win the Cold War, there's zero chance the Russians can pull it off on their own.
If we're not going to go that far, why piss them off at all?
Posted by: Avatar_exADV at Sun Jul 27 21:47:43 2014 (ZeBdf)
2
Another basic unfairness that pisses me off is that we're perfectly willing to sell our best allies, Poles and Czhechs, while sticking our neck out for the useless bloody Ukrainians. It's as if all those Eastern Yrpians are one and the same for the sophisticated oafs in State Dept. and they can't tell them apart.
Posted by: Pete Zaitcev at Tue Jul 29 16:07:35 2014 (RqRa5)
3
The basic issue there is that the basic mindset of the administration is that we don't have any enemies; any country that doesn't like us either has legitimate grievances caused by past imperialistic behavior (and thus can be appeased via good will and understanding). The security situation of the US is an artifact of past imperialistic actions and is thus shameful, yet also a basic fact of life which requires absolutely no effort to maintain and in fact draws money away from desperately needed social services for destitute women and children and toward corrupt white men in charge of defense industries.
Given that we don't have any enemies, nothing is an actual threat, and actually fighting is just an unjustified and barbaric use of our illegitimately-gained imperialistic power anyway, we don't actually have any use for allies. Unlike those who are opposed to us, who have legitimate grievances which we can appease, allies have interests in common with us and thus are fellow illegitimate imperialists, and also at fault for communism not taking over the world and even failing in Russia, where it would have worked except that we were too busy fighting it in order to preserve our own illegitimate imperial power. Furthermore, allies often have their own grievances which, while illegitimate, get in the way of us appeasing those who mistakenly think themselves our enemies except that they just haven't been fully appeased yet.
Eastern European allies are the worst, because their specific grievance is against communism, which is the worst of both worlds - their anti-communist attitude works directly against the idea that communism was a voluntary alignment which its peoples were happy with, and implies that other countries besides the US and its allies can be illegitimate imperialists instead of perfectly rational actors with legitimate historical grievances against Western imperialist offenses. Further, their embrace of Western capitalist values and forms of government and subsequent success can be taken as an implied endorsement of responsible and frugal government, and of capitalism as superior to communism, and is thus bad and shameful.
The Ukrainians don't have this issue because their government is hopelessly corrupt and a perfect example of why democratic and capitalist values are bad. But having them conquered by Russia is bad, because an expansionist Russia (despite having a historic grievance) makes our Eastern European neighbors nervous and they start demanding less appeasing and more concrete actions, which might put us in a position where appeasing the perfectly legitimate historical grievances of others would be politically difficult. Further, armed conquest of the Ukraine begs the question of why the Ukraine broke away in the first place, which goes to all sorts of places no liberal of good understanding wishes to pursue (especially as they relate to atrocities committed by the USSR and resolutely ignored by the left since). How much happier if the Ukrainians were to merely appease the Russians by simply ceding their entire territory, which would both appease the Russians and allow the spread of Putin's regime to additional area, further discrediting capitalism since everyone already knows how corrupt it is.
Furthermore, it's drawing political attention away from Israel, where the Palestinian tactic of using civilians to screen its rocket attacks will only work if people pay attention to the dead civilians that pile up after, and since the Palestinian cause is of course the world's Super Most Important Historical Legitimate Grievance, that's bad in and of itself. How can the evil Israelis, who of course have no legitimate historical grievance because they're allied with the West, possibly be pushed into the sea if nobody is paying attention to their atrocities while studiously ignoring the morality of firing unguided rockets vaguely in the direction of civilians due to your simmering legitimate historical grievance?
Good lord, that hurt to write.
Posted by: Avatar_exADV at Wed Jul 30 03:48:08 2014 (ZeBdf)
4
Avatar - basically, it's a case of "No worse friend, no better enemy."
The appalling thing is that what you say isn't an over-the-top parody of government incompetence; it's how the present administration (and a significant proportion of the Western world) seems to think.
One Hundred Years Ago Today
On July 27, 1914 the German Kaiser returned from his cruise earlier than planned. Below is an excerpt from page 103 of Daniel Allen Butler's Burden of Guilt.
Well....
The British sent another offer to moderate the dispute. It was passed along by Germany, but the German foreign secretary deliberately omitted a key bit...an addendum by the Kaiser endorsing the peace plan and stating that the Serbian agreement to most of the demands removed the legal case for war. . In Austria-Hungary, Emperor Franz Joseph's "top men" were therefore unaware that the return of the Kaiser meant the German's public pronouncements that they desired peace were suddenly sincere.
Russia, taking a less bellicose tone, offered a counterproposal to Austria-Hungary. It did not get past the Austrio-Hungarian foreign minister, who was more concerned that the window for war might pass without an invasion.
Also that evening, the British parliament became quite aware that something really bad might be imminent on on the continent and began debating what to do about it. First Lord of the Admiralty Winston Churchill did not wait. Having kept the reservists at their stations the previous day and rescinded the order to disperse the active fleet, he ordered the Royal Navy to go to full military alert and rig for battle. The magazines were filled with live ammo, and the ships were stripped for action. This caused the German stock exchange to collapse.
Through the night of the 27th the Kaiser drafted a compromise proposal whereby Austrian troops would temporarily occupy Belgrade alone in substitution for having police powers in the whole country. He gave it to his foreign minister to deliver to the Austrians...
1The British sent another offer to moderate the dispute. It was passed along by Germany, but the German foreign secretary deliberately omitted a key bit...
That blows my mind completely. First the German foreign secretary (along with the chancellor) lied to the Kaiser about the severity of the situation, then he lied again, by omission, to the Austro-Hungarian emperor, effectively torpedoing the last chance to avoid the carnage. What the hell was he playing at? Did he want a war?
People are complaining (and rightfully so) at the antics that some high-ranking members of the Obama administration have been engaging in lately. As bad as those high crimes and misdemeanours are, though, they pale in comparison to helping to trigger a global war. Never mind impeachment--IMO, the German foreign secretary deserved to hang.
Posted by: Peter the Not-so-Great at Mon Jul 28 18:06:09 2014 (2eP1J)
2
One of the reasons the most recent post on the first shot fired is so short is that there seems to be some debate about what exactly was going on between the 27th and 29th.
It does appear that the German Chancellor and some members of the General staff considered this to be both the ideal opportunity and last chance to take out France and Russia, which having just signed an alliance would represent an existential threat n a few years should they attack at once.
Likewise, some in the Austrian court considered Serbia a threat out of all proportion ti its actual power because it was giving aid and comfort to ethnic secessionist movements in Bosnia that threatened to tear the empire apart. The big tipping point here was the Foreign Minister.
Emperor Franz Joseph was no pacifist. He'd fought in previous wars for long enough that he remembered when being commander in chief involved riding on a horse with a sword in front of the troops. However all those wars had given him a deep appreciation of how awful war was so he picked a very dovish man for foreign minister, a fellow named Berchtold (actually Leopold (Anton Johann Sigismund Josef Korsinus Ferdinand) Graf Berchtold von und zu Ungarschitz, Frättling und Püllütz 
. He was mister peace and love until the two Balkan wars and was deeply humiliated by the fact that his peace efforts had failed and was widely derided as a result. Franz Joseph kept him on precisely because he had worked so tirelessly for peace on the grounds that that was not a bad trait for head diplomat.
However, after 1912 Berchtold decided that peace with Serbia was a fools errand and the best way to secure stability was to completely conquer the Balkans, or at least Serbia. He secretly became a staunch ally of the most hawkish elements of the general staff. He worded the letter to the Serbs in such a way they had to reject it (Franz Joseph seems to have been appalled when he saw the final draft after the fact). The Emperor did not expect Mr. Peace to be the one who would conspire to bring about a war.
It does seem that Berchtold and the German chancellor were working to thwart any mediation offers. In fact the Austrian voices of restraint came mainly from members of the general staff concerned that an adventure in Serbia would bring about a war with Russia and possibly a far larger war. Berchtold ignored warnings about Russia, in part because of his monomaniacal focus on wiping out Serbia, which stemmed from his public ridicule for his pacifist views.
The petty pique of a bureaucrat can cause a great deal of grief.
(Interestingly Berchtold did not stop being pacifistic on non-Serbian matters. He later offered a non trivial chunk of Austrian territory to the Italians in exchange for their not reneging on their treaty and invading Austria. This exceeding of his authority as well as his total failure to stop total catastrophe got him sacked a few months after the war started).
Posted by: The Brickmuppet at Mon Jul 28 22:28:40 2014 (DnAJl)
Via Ace of Spades, we have a follow-up to that disturbing story about the dolls who appeared on the doorsteps of young girls (each bearing a resemblance to the girls in question). It has been solved. Astoundingly, the resolution did not involve dreadful discoveries in a basement or shallow graves.
It appears that the dolls were intended to be gifts from a woman who attended the girls church.
It was a scary story involving dolls, yet it appears to have just been someone being nice. Who on earth would have expected THAT!?
Emperor Franz Joseph of the Austrio-Hungarian Empire was reasonably satisfied with the Serbian response to his governments demands and ordered the Serbian Chief of Staff to be released with apologies. On the same day and perhaps in response to this act, his Army Chief of Staff and Foreign Minister quietly exchanged letters
Berchtold: "We should like to deliver the declaration of war on Serbia as soon as possible so as to put an end to diverse influences. When do you want the declaration of war? Conrad: Only when we have progressed far enough for operations to begin immediately—on approximately August 12th. Berchtold: "The diplomatic situation will not hold as long as that.†[/quote]
....Meanwhile, the diplomatic heads of both Austria and Russia rejected an offer by Sir Edward Grey (the British Foreign Minister) to mediate the dispute.
In July of 1914, the British Royal Navy was conducting a reserve mobilization drill. This once in a decade endeavor involved calling up reservists and bringing old ships out of reserve, getting them seaworthy and conducting training maneuvers with the active navy which was largely recalled to home waters for the affair. This drill was scheduled to end on July 26th, however, First Lord of the Admiralty Winston Churchill, ordered all hands to stand fast and the fleet to not disperse as planned. From this moment the RN was on a full war footing, something that would normally have taken months to achieve.
De-Escalation
I don't think that word means what some Russians think it does.
"de-escalationâ€â€”the idea that, if Russia were faced with a large-scale conventional attack that exceeded its capacity for defense, it might respond with a limited nuclear strike.
The gist of the article is that Russian policy is such that in the event of a major military confrontation in their immediate sphere of influence (Chechnya is specifically mentioned) , a very limited nuclear strike will cause the other side to pause and reflect., thereby defusing the situation. There is another, albeit rather dated, article on this policy here.
Russia is not the only country that does not have a no first use policy. The same is true of the US and France for instance and US policy has been that if attacked with non-nuclear WMDs (especially a severe biological attack) nukes might be used. However, the Russian policy is odd in assuming that this will lead to a racheting DOWN of tensions. Once nukes start popping off, the potential for things to go completely pear shaped becomes very great indeed.
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USSR had no-first-use promises made, but after its collapse there was some rethinking done in Russia.
Posted by: Pete Zaitcev at Sat Jul 26 20:56:19 2014 (RqRa5)
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Indeed. There was also the Kosovo operation which really annoyed the Russians and brought US and Russian troops to the point of very nearly shooting at each other.
Posted by: The Brickmuppet at Sat Jul 26 22:40:54 2014 (DnAJl)
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The USSR had no-first-use promises made, but frankly, nobody believed them. Nor should have!
That said, frankly we are probably better off staying the hell out of the Russian near-abroad. Certainly we don't have the ability to project power into the Ukraine or Georgia, there's nothing we have at stake there except abstract principle, and Russia would probably feel better with a little bit of a buffer; it's easy to say "why worry about invasion?" when your neighbors are Canada and Mexico. (Not that Germany is going to get up to anything...)
I've got to say, the Israelis probably owe Putin a letter of thanks. Can't really hammer them for going into Gaza when Russia's also being fast and loose with fighters over the border...
Posted by: Avatar_exADV at Sun Jul 27 03:28:50 2014 (ZeBdf)
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Kosovo is interesting in that it was exacly the same thing that's happening in Donetsk right now: the government wanting to expel an ethnic minority that served as a base for its opponents. That's why, for example, you can see an Ukrainian tank driving down the street and shooting at every house. It's not like there was a rebel with RPG sitting in each of them. The point is to make everyone in town to run for their lives, or die. Same goes for insciriminate bombardment.
When Serbs expelled Kosovars, we went and bombed Belgrad. When Ukrainians are eliminating Russians, we do not bomb Kiev. Instead, we're discussing helping them.
The difference is that Russians supported the guys who were doing the depopulation back then, and they are supporting those who are being depopulated right now. It shows very starkly that U.S. gives no consideration to "humanitarian" concerns whatsoever.
This is possible in part because of absolutely astonishing levels of lies, propaganda, and denial. I saw a number of Internet comments by Americans, which flatly deny that Kiev government was committing all the atrocities that are well documented. It's like the Moon Landing Hoax for them, and anyone who brings it up is Putin's stoodge.
Posted by: Pete Zaitcev at Sun Jul 27 09:27:53 2014 (RqRa5)
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Yes, of course, how can we not have perceived that Kiev's taken the opportunity to engage in a bit of ethnic cleansing? Obviously the conflict was a matter of choice for them and not, you know, Russia snatching territory from a neighbor. Russia doesn't have any designs in the area and is completely content with the Crimea, any further Anschluss is mere rumor-mongering by a hostile foreign press!
I just re-read Shirer a month ago, and it's worrisome when someone uses that as an instruction manual.
It's completely fair to say that the US didn't really have any business mucking about in Kosovo; Pournelle has mentioned a few times that "there certainly hadn't been any legal immigration of Albanian Muslims into that region." It drove a wedge between the US and Russia that has colored everything since, and it took a hell of a lot of cheek for Hilary to claim a need to "reset" relations since the US participation in the conflict was largely prompted by her husband needing to displace his sex scandals in the news.
All that said, most Americans don't even realize that Ukranian is a separate ethnicity from Russian, so it's little wonder that they don't see it as an ethnic conflict.
Posted by: Avatar_exADV at Sun Jul 27 11:51:05 2014 (ZeBdf)
"The USSR had no-first-use promises made, but frankly, nobody believed them. Nor should have!"
Well, yes. It was along the lines of their commitment to world peace, with world peace defined as an absence of opposition to global communism. I put the same confidence in the USSR's commitment to that as I do China's, which is bragging about the fact that by the end of this year they'll be able to wipe out a third of our population in an hour. The point I made about Kosovo was that when we went into Kosovo the way we did and when we did, it caused a major reassessment on their part and they decided to openly proclaim that they were willing to use nukes to compensate for their conventional shortcomings, just like we did in the '70s.
Posted by: Brickmuppet at Sun Jul 27 12:05:22 2014 (DnAJl)
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I'd say that a lot of the actual reassessment came in the aftermath of the First Gulf War.
The Soviets had a quantity-over-quality strategy that called for a small number of top-of-the-line units backed by formidable numbers of outdated but pretty cheap units. This stuff was also the bulk of Soviet military aid to various ally nations/puppets/satellites. They weren't counting on it to hold off the best the US had to offer, but they WERE counting on it to be a serious threat in the kind of numbers that they could field.
Iraq had what had been regarded, at the time, as a decently-trained army. They got hammered, plowed under (literally, in some cases), humiliated. US forces attacked at a significant manpower disadvantage, not normally a recipe for great success, and... well, suffice it to say that it did not go well for the Iraqis.
This was extremely bad for the greater Soviet strategy. If second-line forces couldn't even inflict casualties or slow down attacking US forces, then the numerical superiority on paper was an illusion. Unable to afford first-line equipment in the kind of numbers it would take to match the Western democracies, unable to rely on the masses of second-line equipment for anything but mobile coffins, the Soviet armies just weren't a match for the West anymore, and effectively had no way out of that jam.
I've always felt that this was at least one factor in why the Soviet Union collapsed when it did. The army could have upheld the state for quite a lot longer, but with its self-confidence having taken that kind of beating...
(And, naturally, a Russia after the breakup has a completely different strategic situation from the USSR pre-breakup - very little international advantage to be gained from a no-first-use claim, false or otherwise, and at least some self-protection to be gained...)
Posted by: Avatar_exADV at Sun Jul 27 15:06:44 2014 (ZeBdf)
100 Years Ago Today
Austria-Hungary turned down a Russian proposal to extend the deadline on the terms previously presented to Serbia. Serbia, to everyone's astonishment, agreed to nearly all the humiliating demands by 5:58pm on the 25th. However they did not accede to the demand that Austria-Hungary be given legal jurisdiction and arrest powers inside Serbia's border. Their response was otherwise humble to the point of groveling. At 6:30pm, the Austrio-Hungarian consulate evacuated their embassy in Belgrade. The Serbian Chief of staff General Putnik, on his way back from consultations in Russia was arrested that evening in Budapest. Taking the hint, the Serbs voted on, and their monarch signed orders for a full emergency mobilization. Most of their government then abandoned the capital and relocated to the more defensible city of Nish.
It should be noted that Germany's Kaiser was on vacation during this time, golfing cruising on his yacht and was only gradually beginning to understand the gravity of the situation. Likewise, Franz Joseph returned from his retreat where he had been since the funeral of his nephew. He was 84...in 1914. Though he was aware of the negotiations with Germany and the seriousness of the Russian assurances of their Serb allies, he was reportedly quite surprised at the harsh language of the ultimatum sent to Serbia by his ministers.
The episodes are a bit longer this time around (14:45 with credits) and they really have upped the production values. There is also quite a bit of action, though not at ALL what I'd expected.
We do learn a few important things.
The preview trailer is somewhat misleading.
Soda cans in Vale are NOT made out of aluminum.
It's strongly implied that Blake is in a lot more trouble than has been apparent.
Turkey and scallions do not go together as well as I'd have thought.
The episode has everything, murder, intrigue and a bizarre and silly 7 minute food fight that is about as spectacular as anything they've done yet.
The voice acting is still uneven, but Jessica Nigiri does a very good job as Cinder (there was some speculation that her brief scene in last season's stinger was a fluke).
Also, as a catch phrase, "Don't play with your food." is wanting.
However, this was, all in all, a very promising kickoff for the second volume. This is definitely on the watch list.
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And the new bad girl, Emerald. My goodness she's hot.
Searching DeviantArt already turns up a ton of bad fanart, but then there's this : Emerald Turnaround
Posted by: Mauser at Sat Jul 26 21:56:49 2014 (TJ7ih)
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I agree that this first episode was very good. I hope they maintain the quality through the rest of this season.
However, Team Ruby is lucky that they were not serving breakfast in that last scene. If there had been any pancakes present, Team Ruby would have been toast...
Posted by: Siergen at Sun Jul 27 13:19:12 2014 (8/vFI)
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I dunno. It is not hard to imagine Ruby being able to weaponize toast.
Posted by: The Brickmuppet at Sun Jul 27 15:52:11 2014 (DnAJl)
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Turkeys, Watermelons, whole Swordfish, sausage links, soda the consistency of paint....
Fire the Chef.
Posted by: Mauser at Sun Jul 27 19:34:05 2014 (TJ7ih)
I'd seen this thing in some TV shows but I'd always thought it was a special effect.
The Williams WASP was designed to meet an Army from the 1970's. It actually fulfilled all the requirements but twas not adopted as the Army beleatedly decided that the requirements were ill-considered.
Good grief! With a range of 30 miles it's really not all that much more impractical than a motorcycle for commuting. It can fly above traffic and the fact that it flies means it's significantly less dorky than a Segway.
If Nightmare Fuel is a Nonrenewable Resource
...then perhaps we are pumping it at such a rate that our reserves will soon be exhausted!
This story (which i got via Ace) has me especially enamored of the 'peak nightmare fuel' idea.
Eight families in San Clemente have been targeted in a disturbing pattern under investigation by authorities: porcelain dolls have been left at their homes resembling young girls who live there.
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Two of my nephews were huge fans of Thomas the Tank Engine when they were little kids; I suppose I'll have to denounce them now. (BTW, both these nephews are now well into adulthood, and one has children of his own. Why yes, yes I do feel old...)
Posted by: Peter the Not-so-Great at Fri Jul 25 17:54:35 2014 (2eP1J)
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