Brickmuppet Blog 2.0

July 28, 2014

100 Years Ago July 28, 1914

Kaiser Wilhelm the Second's compromise proposal was presented to Emperor Franz Joseph at noon.

At 11:00 AM Emperor Franz Joseph had signed a declaration of war against Serbia. Just before midnight, the Austrio-Hungarian river gunboat SMS Bodrog fired the first shots of World War 1.

SMS Bodrog The oddity on the bow is a mine-sweeping device.

SMS Bodrog today after service in 4 navies and three wars.

Posted by: The Brickmuppet at 07:08 AM | No Comments | Add Comment
Post contains 73 words, total size 1 kb.

July 27, 2014

Love Lab

A 13 episode CGDCT series from last year, Love Lab passed beneath my radar though I became tangentially aware of it when I tracked down the source of some animated .gifs I had appropriated for some posts. I initially avoided it like the plague because I looked at the poster and drew the erroneous conclusion that it was based on a dating sim.

Realizing my error, I recently gave it a shot and discovered that it is...different.

Not a vampire...honest.

Meet Riko. She is an athletically inclined young lady from a modest middle class background. While not naturally gifted academically she has worked her butt off and through sheer force of will succeeded in transferring into the prestigious Fuji Girls School. She's got a couple of things going for her, she's extremely athletic and has that "mysterious transfer student" vibe, and as such a number of the student body are in awe of her. Our heroine is oblivious to this or her nickname "Wild Rinko" in part because she has never been popular. As a kid she hung out with the boys, who she frequently beat up and earned a reputation as demonic horror wench...the fangs probably exacerbated this.

In any event, one day she is instructed by a teacher to drop some papers by the student council office, where, having forgotten to knock, she makes a horrifying discovery.

First some background...Maki, the student council president, is extremely good at her job, a straight "A" student and greatly admired by the student body and teachers alike, so to walk in on her and find her making out with a comfort pillow named Huggy in the student council office is officially scandalous.

Well it gets worse. It seems that Maki has been using the student council to conduct experiments, and role playing sessions (with Huggy). She's turned it into a Love Lab in order to prepare herself for...romance.

She's already mastered the dramatic bloody cough

The fact that any contact with boys is grounds for expulsion only makes this abuse of school facilities more scandalous and dark secrets must be kept. Riko is drafted into being the POTSC's aid, partly in order to keep Maki's secret and partly to give a non-pillow perspective on Maki's ideas. When Riko points out that most of Maki's notions are stark-raving cuckoo for Cocoa Puffs, Maki gets the impression that Riko's extensive experience with boys is actually extensive EXPERIENCE with boys. Riko's failure to clarify this complicates everything further and hilarity ensues as several other oddball students are drawn into this dark circle of depravity.

Love Lab breaks no new ground but it has very high production values and is a thoroughly pleasant show. The soundtrack is minimalist but surprisingly effective. I laughed and enjoyed it though the series has very limited rewatch value as most of the humor is based on surprises. It does get sappy towards the end as things begin to come to a head and some late series developments are not really resolved, I'm not sure if it was cut short or ran an episode too long. Nevertheless, I did not feel robbed or insulted and the show is upbeat, amusing and double entendres notwithstanding, not at all vulgar.

No really...

That is a matter of personal opinion.

Posted by: The Brickmuppet at 08:35 PM | No Comments | Add Comment
Post contains 549 words, total size 5 kb.

A Few Random Thoughts About the Ukraine

A spirited discussion on this topic has sprung up in the comments. My latest reply went long so here are a couple of random observations and opinions on the topic..

Russia is being a jackass in the Ukraine. However, their interest in Crimea and Sevastopol in particular is of vital importance to their nation. The Crimea is overwhelmingly ethnically Russian and Cossack so even if we were going by Wilsonian as opposed to Westphalian doctrine the ethnic self determination angle might give Russia a defensible position in that case.

We don't HAVE a doctrine at the moment , Wilsonian, Westphalian or even Carteresque, so that's irrelevant.

Which is one reason the parallels to 1930's Chekoslovakia cause concern.

Ukraine has grievances against Russia that are numerous and legitimate, including a large swath of their country that's uninhabitable for extended periods and mass graves filled by by Stalin with their brethren.

However, Ukraine is not a bunch of angels, with some very vocal members of their polity having anti-semitic and even neo-nazi ties. They have been using the Balkan conflict as a how-to manual rather than a cautionary tale. They are also pretty much a failed state.

We (the US) have, in the 20th century, normally supported self determination as a matter of national policy and a big chunk of eastern Ukraine is ethnically Russian.

Russia, like us, is fighting islamic extremists and would be a natural ally in this endeavor. In fact Russia has given a lot of assistance in that regard including overflight privileges to facilitate our fighting in Afganistan and providing intel on Chechen terrorists in the US which we ignored, thereby facilitating the Boston Bombing.

The plane shoot-down was a dreadful calamity, but the airline ignored warnings not to fly over a FRICKKING WAR ZONE where 3 transports had already been shot down. I don't think that Russia intentionally shot down an airliner. I cannot conceivably have gained them anything.

Is this patch of black earth which is a huge ethnic and political mess a place we want to really get involved in?

No.

But there is a problem with that.

We guaranteed The Ukraine that we would protect their territorial integrity if they acquiesced to our demands that they give up their nukes. So we actually do have an obligation to do something. It is a matter of global interest that we encourage non-proliferation. this is not achieved if a country that gives up its nukes is dismembered by others that did not.

Like, you know, Libya, who we promised not to poke at if they gave up their nuclear program. A promise we honored until the president leveraged the fact that the UK and France wanted to pay less for oil to support Muslim Brotherhood affiliated revolutions. Now North Africa is awash in weapons, thousands of MANPADS are in the hands of terrorists and Boko Haram is spreading pain and woe with weapons they got from Quaddaffi's arsenals. OTOH the oil is not flowing near as much now.

So the "We gave our word" and "nonproliferation" carts have left the barn. The sort of brinksmanship necessary to protect Ukraine's integrity would be fraught with opportunities for catastrophic, 1914 style miscalculation and tragedy even if we had level-headed, grounded professionals running our foreign policy.

via

We don't have that. We have the crew that threw away an admittedly phyrric victory, in the process giving Mesopotamia to ISIS, set North Africa aflame, and has been making fools of themselves in the Levant.

Given that the Libyan fiasco has pissed away any non-proliferation mojo that might be preserved by an adventure in Ukrania, poking the bear* does not survive even the most cursory cost benefit analysis. The moral calculus is dubious at best.

The only realistic way to deal with the destabilizing and dangerous situation that is our shattered credibility is to wait two years and say "Sorry...he was a fluke. We're back now".

Even then, our policy in this squalid European mess probably ought to be to bolster our newest NATO allies and provide humanitarian aid.

*the actual bear

Posted by: The Brickmuppet at 04:36 PM | Comments (1) | Add Comment
Post contains 688 words, total size 5 kb.

One Hundred Years Ago Today

On July 27, 1914 the German Kaiser returned from his cruise earlier than planned. Below is an excerpt from page 103 of Daniel Allen Butler's Burden of Guilt.

Well....

The British sent another offer to moderate the dispute. It was passed along by Germany, but the German foreign secretary deliberately omitted a key bit...an addendum by the Kaiser endorsing the peace plan and stating that the Serbian agreement to most of the demands removed the legal case for war. . In Austria-Hungary, Emperor Franz Joseph's "top men" were therefore unaware that the return of the Kaiser meant the German's public pronouncements that they desired peace were suddenly sincere.

Russia, taking a less bellicose tone, offered a counterproposal to Austria-Hungary. It did not get past the Austrio-Hungarian foreign minister, who was more concerned that the window for war might pass without an invasion.

Also that evening, the British parliament became quite aware that something really bad might be imminent on on the continent and began debating what to do about it. First Lord of the Admiralty Winston Churchill did not wait. Having kept the reservists at their stations the previous day and rescinded the order to disperse the active fleet, he ordered the Royal Navy to go to full military alert and rig for battle. The magazines were filled with live ammo, and the ships were stripped for action. This caused the German stock exchange to collapse.

Through the night of the 27th the Kaiser drafted a compromise proposal whereby Austrian troops would temporarily occupy Belgrade alone in substitution for having police powers in the whole country. He gave it to his foreign minister to deliver to the Austrians...

Posted by: The Brickmuppet at 04:28 PM | Comments (1) | Add Comment
Post contains 283 words, total size 2 kb.

July 26, 2014

A Minor Tidbit...Scarcely Worth Mentioning

An interesting peek at what Disney is doing with the franchise.

Posted by: The Brickmuppet at 11:35 PM | Comments (2) | Add Comment
Post contains 16 words, total size 1 kb.

Creepy Horror Story Takes Unexpected Turn

Via Ace of Spades, we have a follow-up to that disturbing story about the dolls who appeared on the doorsteps of young girls (each bearing a resemblance to the girls in question). It has been solved. Astoundingly, the resolution did not involve dreadful discoveries in a basement or shallow graves.

It appears that the dolls were intended to be gifts from a woman who attended the girls church.

It was a scary story involving dolls, yet it appears to have just been someone being nice. Who on earth would have expected THAT!?

OK.

Who else?

Posted by: The Brickmuppet at 06:44 PM | No Comments | Add Comment
Post contains 101 words, total size 1 kb.

100 years Ago Today

Emperor Franz Joseph of the Austrio-Hungarian Empire was reasonably satisfied with the Serbian response to his governments demands and ordered the Serbian Chief of Staff to be released with apologies. On the same day and perhaps in response to this act, his Army Chief of Staff and Foreign Minister quietly exchanged letters

Berchtold: "We should like to deliver the declaration of war on Serbia as soon as possible so as to put an end to diverse influences. When do you want the declaration of war? Conrad: Only when we have progressed far enough for operations to begin immediately—on approximately August 12th. Berchtold: "The diplomatic situation will not hold as long as that.” [/quote]

(Quote via Wikipedia)

....Meanwhile, the diplomatic heads of both Austria and Russia rejected an offer by Sir Edward Grey (the British Foreign Minister) to mediate the dispute.

In July of 1914, the British Royal Navy was conducting a reserve mobilization drill. This once in a decade endeavor involved calling up reservists and bringing old ships out of reserve, getting them seaworthy and conducting training maneuvers with the active navy which was largely recalled to home waters for the affair. This drill was scheduled to end on July 26th, however, First Lord of the Admiralty Winston Churchill, ordered all hands to stand fast and the fleet to not disperse as planned. From this moment the RN was on a full war footing, something that would normally have taken months to achieve.

Posted by: The Brickmuppet at 03:47 PM | No Comments | Add Comment
Post contains 246 words, total size 3 kb.

De-Escalation

I don't think that word means what some Russians think it does.

"de-escalation”—the idea that, if Russia were faced with a large-scale conventional attack that exceeded its capacity for defense, it might respond with a limited nuclear strike.

It's probably just a translation glitch. Do read the whole thing.

The gist of the article is that Russian policy is such that in the event of a major military confrontation in their immediate sphere of influence (Chechnya is specifically mentioned) , a very limited nuclear strike will cause the other side to pause and reflect., thereby defusing the situation. There is another, albeit rather dated, article on this policy here.

Russia is not the only country that does not have a no first use policy. The same is true of the US and France for instance and US policy has been that if attacked with non-nuclear WMDs (especially a severe biological attack) nukes might be used. However, the Russian policy is odd in assuming that this will lead to a racheting DOWN of tensions. Once nukes start popping off, the potential for things to go completely pear shaped becomes very great indeed.

Posted by: The Brickmuppet at 02:28 PM | Comments (7) | Add Comment
Post contains 192 words, total size 3 kb.

1 USSR had no-first-use promises made, but after its collapse there was some rethinking done in Russia.

Posted by: Pete Zaitcev at Sat Jul 26 21:56:19 2014 (RqRa5)

2 Indeed. There was also the Kosovo operation which really annoyed the Russians and brought US and Russian troops to the point of very nearly shooting at each other.

Posted by: The Brickmuppet at Sat Jul 26 23:40:54 2014 (DnAJl)

3 The USSR had no-first-use promises made, but frankly, nobody believed them. Nor should have!

That said, frankly we are probably better off staying the hell out of the Russian near-abroad. Certainly we don't have the ability to project power into the Ukraine or Georgia, there's nothing we have at stake there except abstract principle, and Russia would probably feel better with a little bit of a buffer; it's easy to say "why worry about invasion?" when your neighbors are Canada and Mexico. (Not that Germany is going to get up to anything...)

I've got to say, the Israelis probably owe Putin a letter of thanks. Can't really hammer them for going into Gaza when Russia's also being fast and loose with fighters over the border...

Posted by: Avatar_exADV at Sun Jul 27 04:28:50 2014 (ZeBdf)

4 Kosovo is interesting in that it was exacly the same thing that's happening in Donetsk right now: the government wanting to expel an ethnic minority that served as a base for its opponents. That's why, for example, you can see an Ukrainian tank driving down the street and shooting at every house. It's not like there was a rebel with RPG sitting in each of them. The point is to make everyone in town to run for their lives, or die. Same goes for insciriminate bombardment.
When Serbs expelled Kosovars, we went and bombed Belgrad. When Ukrainians are eliminating Russians, we do not bomb Kiev. Instead, we're discussing helping them.
The difference is that Russians supported the guys who were doing the depopulation back then, and they are supporting those who are being depopulated right now. It shows very starkly that U.S. gives no consideration to "humanitarian" concerns whatsoever.
This is possible in part because of absolutely astonishing levels of lies, propaganda, and denial. I saw a number of Internet comments by Americans, which flatly deny that Kiev government was committing all the atrocities that are well documented. It's like the Moon Landing Hoax for them, and anyone who brings it up is Putin's stoodge.

Posted by: Pete Zaitcev at Sun Jul 27 10:27:53 2014 (RqRa5)

5 Yes, of course, how can we not have perceived that Kiev's taken the opportunity to engage in a bit of ethnic cleansing? Obviously the conflict was a matter of choice for them and not, you know, Russia snatching territory from a neighbor. Russia doesn't have any designs in the area and is completely content with the Crimea, any further Anschluss is mere rumor-mongering by a hostile foreign press!

I just re-read Shirer a month ago, and it's worrisome when someone uses that as an instruction manual.

It's completely fair to say that the US didn't really have any business mucking about in Kosovo; Pournelle has mentioned a few times that "there certainly hadn't been any legal immigration of Albanian Muslims into that region." It drove a wedge between the US and Russia that has colored everything since, and it took a hell of a lot of cheek for Hilary to claim a need to "reset" relations since the US participation in the conflict was largely prompted by her husband needing to displace his sex scandals in the news.

All that said, most Americans don't even realize that Ukranian is a separate ethnicity from Russian, so it's little wonder that they don't see it as an ethnic conflict.

Posted by: Avatar_exADV at Sun Jul 27 12:51:05 2014 (ZeBdf)

"The USSR had no-first-use promises made, but frankly, nobody believed them. Nor should have!"

Well, yes. It was along the lines of their commitment to world peace, with world peace defined as an absence of opposition to global communism.
I put the same confidence in the USSR's commitment to that as I do China's, which is bragging about the fact that by the end of this year they'll be able to wipe out a third of our population in an hour.
The point I made about Kosovo was that when we went into Kosovo the way we did and when we did, it caused a major reassessment on their part and they decided to openly proclaim that they were willing to use nukes to compensate for their conventional shortcomings, just like we did in the '70s.

Posted by: Brickmuppet at Sun Jul 27 13:05:22 2014 (DnAJl)

7 I'd say that a lot of the actual reassessment came in the aftermath of the First Gulf War.

The Soviets had a quantity-over-quality strategy that called for a small number of top-of-the-line units backed by formidable numbers of outdated but pretty cheap units. This stuff was also the bulk of Soviet military aid to various ally nations/puppets/satellites. They weren't counting on it to hold off the best the US had to offer, but they WERE counting on it to be a serious threat in the kind of numbers that they could field.

Iraq had what had been regarded, at the time, as a decently-trained army. They got hammered, plowed under (literally, in some cases), humiliated. US forces attacked at a significant manpower disadvantage, not normally a recipe for great success, and... well, suffice it to say that it did not go well for the Iraqis.

This was extremely bad for the greater Soviet strategy. If second-line forces couldn't even inflict casualties or slow down attacking US forces, then the numerical superiority on paper was an illusion. Unable to afford first-line equipment in the kind of numbers it would take to match the Western democracies, unable to rely on the masses of second-line equipment for anything but mobile coffins, the Soviet armies just weren't a match for the West anymore, and effectively had no way out of that jam.

I've always felt that this was at least one factor in why the Soviet Union collapsed when it did. The army could have upheld the state for quite a lot longer, but with its self-confidence having taken that kind of beating...

(And, naturally, a Russia after the breakup has a completely different strategic situation from the USSR pre-breakup - very little international advantage to be gained from a no-first-use claim, false or otherwise, and at least some self-protection to be gained...)

Posted by: Avatar_exADV at Sun Jul 27 16:06:44 2014 (ZeBdf)

Hide Comments | Add Comment

July 25, 2014

100 Years Ago Today

Austria-Hungary turned down a Russian proposal to extend the deadline on the terms previously presented to Serbia. Serbia, to everyone's astonishment, agreed to nearly all the humiliating demands by 5:58pm on the 25th. However they did not accede to the demand that Austria-Hungary be given legal jurisdiction and arrest powers inside Serbia's border. Their response was otherwise humble to the point of groveling. At 6:30pm, the Austrio-Hungarian consulate evacuated their embassy in Belgrade. The Serbian Chief of staff General Putnik, on his way back from consultations in Russia was arrested that evening in Budapest. Taking the hint, the Serbs voted on, and their monarch signed orders for a full emergency mobilization. Most of their government then abandoned the capital and relocated to the more defensible city of Nish.

It should be noted that Germany's Kaiser was on vacation during this time, golfing cruising on his yacht and was only gradually beginning to understand the gravity of the situation. Likewise, Franz Joseph returned from his retreat where he had been since the funeral of his nephew. He was 84...in 1914. Though he was aware of the negotiations with Germany and the seriousness of the Russian assurances of their Serb allies, he was reportedly quite surprised at the harsh language of the ultimatum sent to Serbia by his ministers.

Posted by: The Brickmuppet at 04:15 PM | No Comments | Add Comment
Post contains 221 words, total size 2 kb.

July 24, 2014

Well THAT was an Amusing 15 minutes.

RWBY is back and is simulcasting on Crunchyroll.

"Yay! We're back!"

The episodes are a bit longer this time around (14:45 with credits) and they really have upped the production values. There is also quite a bit of action, though not at ALL what I'd expected.

We do learn a few important things.

The preview trailer is somewhat misleading.

Soda cans in Vale are NOT made out of aluminum.

It's strongly implied that Blake is in a lot more trouble than has been apparent.

Turkey and scallions do not go together as well as I'd have thought.

The voice acting is still uneven, but Jessica Nigiri does a very good job as Cinder (there was some speculation that her brief scene in last season's stinger was a fluke).

Also, as a catch phrase, "Don't play with your food." is wanting.

However, this was, all in all, a very promising kickoff for the second volume. This is definitely on the watch list.

Posted by: The Brickmuppet at 10:04 PM | Comments (5) | Add Comment
Post contains 169 words, total size 2 kb.

I Had NO Idea This Thing Was Real

Do want!

I'd seen this thing in some TV shows but I'd always thought it was a special effect.

The Williams WASP was designed to meet an Army from the 1970's. It actually fulfilled all the requirements but twas not adopted as the Army beleatedly decided that the requirements were ill-considered.

Good grief! With a range of 30 miles it's really not all that much more impractical than a motorcycle for commuting. It can fly above traffic and the fact that it flies means it's significantly less dorky than a Segway.

This is the future we were denied!

Someone must make this happen.

Posted by: The Brickmuppet at 09:59 PM | Comments (2) | Add Comment
Post contains 111 words, total size 1 kb.

If Nightmare Fuel is a Nonrenewable Resource

...then perhaps we are pumping it at such a rate that our reserves will soon be exhausted!

This story (which i got via Ace) has me especially enamored of the 'peak nightmare fuel' idea.

Eight families in San Clemente have been targeted in a disturbing pattern under investigation by authorities: porcelain dolls have been left at their homes resembling young girls who live there.

Yikes!

The horror novel writes itself.

Posted by: The Brickmuppet at 06:25 PM | No Comments | Add Comment
Post contains 77 words, total size 1 kb.

Oh. I misunderstood.

I saw an excerpt from an opinion piece this morning and assumed it was satire.

Gay Patriot has analysis and perspective on the defenestration of Thomas the Tank Engine.

Posted by: The Brickmuppet at 05:58 PM | Comments (1) | Add Comment
Post contains 32 words, total size 1 kb.

100 Years Ago Today

In response to Austria-Hungary's ultimatum to Serbia and reports that Austria-Hungary was mobilizing, the Russian Duma ordered it's army to quietly begin preparations for a full mobilization.

Posted by: The Brickmuppet at 10:35 AM | No Comments | Add Comment
Post contains 31 words, total size 1 kb.

July 23, 2014

100 Years Ago

On July 23 1914 Austria-Hungary's head diplomat in Belgrade presented a series of demands to the Serbian government. At the same time the Austrian Army was ordered to 'open the War Book' that is, begin the mobilization of reserve units for war. Although Russia had sworn to defend their Serb allies, Germany had assured Austria Hungary that they would back them against Russia. Austria-Hungary was unaware that Germany's plan to help defend Austria-Hungary's northeastern frontier involved an invasion of France through Belgium. In fairness to the Austria-Hungarians. this method of bolstering them against Russia was admittedly somewhat non-intuitive.

Posted by: The Brickmuppet at 07:10 PM | No Comments | Add Comment
Post contains 101 words, total size 1 kb.

78kb generated in CPU 0.06, elapsed 0.149 seconds.
69 queries taking 0.107 seconds, 267 records returned.
Powered by Minx 1.1.6c-pink.

Search Thingy

Monthly Traffic

Pages: 314835
Files: 96850
Bytes: 66.0G
CPU Time: 151:43
Queries: 13888912

Content

Posts: 2320
Comments: 3614

Feeds