May 28, 2007
May 27, 2007
One of the Brickmuppet's crack team of science babes, seems a tad un-enthused at the prospect, but she does pass on a few alternate energy related tidbits and a dogeared copy of The Fountainhead.
Alternate energy is very much a religious type discussion with some people and they view various energy types as good or bad and are about as consistent and rational as a shrimp eating homophobe quoting Leviticus.
To them, nuclear power is almost invariably bad....hell...Greenpeace which is absolutely one of the groups that has dealing with global warming at the top of their priority list has just put out their white paper on energy policy....they recommend going to....natural gas...
The link has a thoughtful analysis by David Bradish read the whole thing.
(The Greenpeace paper without commentary can be found here.)
They are very down on nukes despite their stated belief that greenhouse gasses are the primary threat to the environment.
This is silly. Well, actually, it is tragic.
Natural Gas is a fossil fuel, and a mere subset of the total finite petroleum reserves....therefore as far as supply, it is a step back. If one is concerned primarily about anthropogenic global warming then it is still an issue...it is cleaner burning because of the lack of impurities, but the energy is released by the oxidation of the nearly equal amounts of hydrogen, carbon and oxygen yielding the production of CO2 and water.
More fashionable alternate energy schemes, such as hydrogen and biofuels, are not good energy producers. They are energy carriers.
Biofuels take energy to produce.
Organic matter is put into a reactor, in some cases it is fermented to produce alcohol of some type or it is rendered in the thermal deplymerization process....then it is refined to produce a usable fuel and other by products.
This takes power....even the fermentation process takes pressurization temperature control and a bit of "cooking". (Modern breweries still require electricity...which results in less poisoning and year round production.)
Some arrangements with exceptionally rich feedstocks can produce, after an initial start-up injection of power, near break even,or even a small surplus of fuel not used to ferment can be produced...but it is not a viable process for producing large quantities of fuel.
This holds doubly true for Hydrogen. Given the lack of a free H2 supply, one must crack hydrogen bonds....this requires a LOT of power (but less if your feedstock is not water, but hydrocarbons....ie...oil).
Thus, the power to create the hydrogen or refine the biofuel must come from somewhere else.Otherwise the scheme becomes worthy of the Underpants Gnomes...but in a chemical rather than business sense.
Note that given external power supplies these can become viable. (Hydrogen less so, given its handling issues and low density)
I've blogged like a broken record on thermal depolymerization before, and I'm blogging on it now because I think it has considerable potential for dealing with our waste and liquid fuel issues. Others talk about this here, here, here and here.
The process basically speeds up the earths oil production process by heating organic matter to break it down into something resembling petroleum which can then be refined into other petroleum products. There has been some criticism of the company because of smell issues and the limited output but the plant in Carthage uses its own processed fuel to run itself and sells the surplus. The ability to do this this is a function of its rich feedstock (poultry scraps) but it is in fact a big step forward.
Note that the other feed stocks such as plastics, raw sewage and other organic waste are unlikely to break even...but with external power this process has the potential to kill 2 birds with one stone, waste disposal, and fuel production. Even if the yield did not replace all petroleum it would be a big chunk and because its not digging up long buried carbon but using already extant hydrocarbons it is actually "carbon neutral". It can produce biodiesel which can run in regular vehicles with additives and thus is non disruptive of existing infrastructure.
Most of the opposition to the plans seem to stem from quasi-religious thinking and resentment that the pilot plant was facilitated in part by Bush2 (who is an avid supporter of the process..which is enough to make it irrelevant to some people)
"With external power"
Well what will provide that power exactly ?
Solar: Everybody loves solar, but it has all kinds of limitations. It's really impractical north of the Mason Dixon line and it only works in...um...daylight (duh) the cells are currently expensive and there are these things called clouds.
Space-based solar arrays were seriously proposed in the late 70'sand early 80's when it was believed that NASAs space shuttle would get launch costs down to a point where going to orbit would be like driving a truck from New York to LA. Satellites in geostationary orbit would beam microwaves down to earth, preferably in deserts, which would be converted into electricity and distributed.
There are 3 problems with this.
1:The microwaves are orders of magnitude more powerful than is currently allowable forexposureto humans. If the health issues do prove to be bogus the luddites are likely to kill it out of paranoia.
2: The frequencies are already used for Wi-Fi networks...something that was unforeseen when this tech was proposed.....we may have waited to long since people like their Wi-Fi and would have to give it up if the current designs were built.
3: Launch costs are greater in adjusted dollars for the "reuseable" space shuttle than disposable boosters...and those aren't currently cheap either.
It may well become practical in the future and could well provide power to a moon or mars colony using relay satellites or Lagrange point orbits....but as much a sit pains me to type this I don't think it is viable right now or in the near future.
OTOH, ~25,000.00 dollars will buy you a kit that will include solar arrays, a windmill generator, a backup diesel generator, batteries for nighttime use and get you off the grid!
This is cool!
If I can, I plan to do this eventually, it will not pay for itself for a decade or more but it is freedom and individuality personified (it's also work as one must fix ones own stuff).
This is good not just for raving milquetoast individualists like myself but for the nation as a whole as it takes a load off the grid and decentralizes power production and reduces individual dependence. Politically its a win for a righty like me as it reinforces individualism... Also, it is very low in emissions (and if you use biodiesel in the generator...is in theory carbon neutral).
The windmill allows this system much farther north as the wind blows more in the winter. Some of them even operate in Alaska, but given the loong winter nights there I'm not sure that its practical that far north.
Most of the continental US might be able to do this and with the costs of durable solar panels plummeting, it may become cheaper, and more popular outside of the circle of geeky hobbyists like myself.
(the solar panels are only part of the cost, the batteries, windmill, dynamo, and backup generator cost a lot as do the DC appliances and converters, which is why it costs roughly 25 grand.)
But for the actual grid....not so much...solar has some potential in the southern sun belt, but it is not a national solution.
There have been some recent developments in geothermal power.These are exceedingly interesting but not fully developed.
Hydroelectric has a niche to be sure, but it has its own set of issues. And requires lots of water so it is only available in certain areas...most of which, at least in this country, have it already.
Coal...even if you are completely unconcerned with CO2 coal is filthy, and terribly polluting....its also an excellent source of carbon for industrial applications.
Sorry guys...the future of energy, even if we switch to electric cars...is going to be ATOMIC!!!
Pebblebed nuclear reactors and other "intrinsically safe" designs have a huge potential for development and don't pollute to any great extent...if we allowed breeder reactors (particularly thorium breeders )they would pollute even less and sip fuel.
For isolated locations and the developing world a class of "portable" low cost safe and nonproliferative reactors are being developed in Japan and South Africa.
The Japanese reactor, built by Toshiba is being considered for installation in the town of Galena Alaska in 2010. The reactor would seem to be a good fit for the small isolated community that now relies on a diesel generator. A similar project has been proposed by Kirk Sorensen, of the "Energy From Thorium"blog using cheaper and safer thorium as a fuel. The interesting liquid salt reactor he has designed can be seen here in both word and power point with some informed discussion.
These two are geared for small communities and developing countries as well as backup power sources in cities...Like the off-grid residences mentioned earlier, these small reactors have the potential to make our energy grid far more decentralized and robust...not only against terrorism or foreign attack but natural disasters and human screw ups as well. A good overview of recent reactor designs can be found here well as here at the NRC which is currently reviewing for approval a record number of reactor types.
Nukes can make many of the silly sounding biofuel ideas actually work...if battery tech makes high yield non-toxic electric cars practical, (batteries are currently hard to dispose of due to toxicity) nukes can charge them...with out nukes...there aren't any real alternatives to the status quo, which is running out. Those who are rabidly anti nuke...probably don't need to be taken terribly seriously on the environment.
We need some real incentives for nuclear power, which, much as it pains me to say it are unlikely to come from.....
"BIG L" LIBERTARIANISM
The Libertarian party was formed in 1971 and has been tilting at windmills ever since. In theory, they share a lot with Goldwater conservatives like myself but their view of the role of government has gotten progressively narrower to the point that many seem to favor a governmental structure similar to the unsuccessful Articles of Confederation note that under the constitution there are some things that congress is supposed to do...
The Congress shall have power to lay and collect taxes, duties, imposts and excises, to pay the debts and provide for the common defense and general welfare of the United States; but all duties, imposts and excises shall be uniform throughout the United States;
To borrow money on the credit of the United States;
To regulate commerce with foreign nations, and among the several states, and with the Indian tribes;
To establish a uniform rule of naturalization, and uniform laws on the subject of bankruptcies throughout the United States;
To coin money, regulate the value thereof, and of foreign coin, and fix the standard of weights and measures;
To provide for the punishment of counterfeiting the securities and current coin of the United States;
To establish post offices and post roads;
To promote the progress of science and useful arts, by securing for limited times to authors and inventors the exclusive right to their respective writings and discoveries;
To constitute tribunals inferior to the Supreme Court;
To define and punish piracies and felonies committed on the high seas, and offenses against the law of nations;
To declare war, grant letters of marque and reprisal, and make rules concerning captures on land and water;
To raise and support armies, but no appropriation of money to that use shall be for a longer term than two years;
To provide and maintain a navy;
To make rules for the government and regulation of the land and naval forces;
To provide for calling forth the militia to execute the laws of the union, suppress insurrections and repel invasions;
To provide for organizing, arming, and disciplining, the militia, and for governing such part of them as may be employed in the service of the United States, reserving to the states respectively, the appointment of the officers, and the authority of training the militia according to the discipline prescribed by Congress;
OTOH that is in theory IT ...period....all other powers being the purview of the states as per the10th amendment....a topic for another time.
Note that infrastructure (postal roads) is specifically listed as is INTERSTATE commerce but this is a far smaller list than we have now....
The libertarians have a big problem running for congress because they don't run for dog catcher first,(believing there is no role for government in dog catching) they tend to think that those "other powers are intrusions". Trash collection in cities, sanitation and various other things that are supposed to be local the Libertarians tend to be opposed to too.
Note that it is THEY, not the Democrats who are the closest to Thomas Jefferson and Madison in political outlook, and like those two their view are both laudable and problematic. Jefferson as president conducted the Louisiana purchase....a constitutionally fuzzy action under the Jeffersonian ideal...but acceptable to the Federalists.
Personally, I am much more a Federalist or Whig, I think the
congress should be limited in what it does to the limits of the
constitution, but that giving the list above, this should not preclude
setting energy policy, (carbon taxes for instance) or Hamiltonian
financial initiatives like the now defunct US Bank. Likewise, immunizations can certainly be considered part of the common defense against communicable diseases.
What I'd like to see, but am unlikely to, is the federal government eliminate
most federal programs, but give block grants to the states and
territories instead of said programs apportion them as per population
and then we'd always have 55 little experiments going on to see how
best to do things, personalized to the specific local, cultural, and
economic needs of each state. (there is more diversity than people
realize, Delaware and Rhode Island are both small northeastern coastal
states...yet their economies, culture and demographics are quite
different....the differences between other states are fare greater) ....but I digress.
Note that if it were not for their foreign policy in the current crisis, I could easily put aside my quibbles and vote for the Libertarians, they are far closer to my ideals than the democrats, who are socialists with Maoist tendencies, or the Republicans who are once again moving away from their ideals that Goldwater and Reagan helped them rediscover.
In foreign policy, the Libertarians are, I fear, quite naive. Note though, that their former presidential candidate Ron Paul was unfairly maligned and rather misquoted for pointing out that many of the worlds issues come from us having meddled in international affairs.
He is actually partly right, but those issues that aren't the result of Islamism or the fallout from the collapse of the colonial powers stem from our involvement in WW1....which we've been dealing with ever since. The Libertarian view is that if we simply come home, cut all foreign aid and become as neutral as Switzerland peace will break out all over.
It will not.
Like it or not we are a great power and that carries international obligations, ethical as well as military ones. The current situation is unpleasant but it is a war the Islamic world has been waging since long before this young republic existed. (and indeed our unexpected and unavoidable involvement in it was our first foreign war...which still has some relevance) The fact that we are trying to get the people in Iraq, Afghanistan and other places on their own two feet is not just a noble thing, it is also enlightened self interest...wait that dovetails nicely into....
(I don't even pretend to understand psycho-epistemology.)
However, I do think that the ideals and concepts are deeply important, especially in an age filled with a pervasive sense of entitlement and resentment of success.
I also think that Objectivism gets a bit of a bum rap as a result of its most enthusiastic adherents who treat Rand's work as gospel...literally....and thereby utterly miss the point.
Full disclosure...I have been non objectivist in having been the recipient of charity in that I got my very first computer from a friend who was throwing away what became the first of my...
I like Mac's they're easy to use, even for computer un-savvy people like me.
I'm not knowledgeable enough about computers to really compare their benefits....but....
...I like Mac's....
May 26, 2007
Over in lab 5, (a refurbished Batman villain hide-out) one of the Brickmuppet's crack team of science babes explains to a rapt audience that while people of good faith certainly believe that Global Warming is a transcendental threat, for crying out loud, calling skeptics of Al Gore's fear mongering "denialists" is downright Orwellian. It associates them with truly evil people....the holocaust deniers. It does not reflect well upon those who use the term.
Now to be sure, we are entering a warming period...and have warmed rather dramatically since the early 20th century.
That's Niagara Falls...That's people walking across Niagara Falls in 1911...the last year it froze, note that in the early years of the Republic it froze solid several times.
We do have a huge amount of warming and CO2 levels are noticeably higher than they seem to have been in preindustrial times. Now the science of measuring these is less precise than some would like to admit, but we are, nevertheless, talking about a 20 to 37% increase in CO2 depending on the study...which is likely outside even a considerable margin of error.
CO2 is a greenhouse gas...it is not a very efficient one compared to water vapor and methane, but it does work and much of the CO2 being added to the atmosphere is being released from deposits that were sequestered in...say...the carboniferous period when swamps turned to coal.
So why am I not working to draft Gore?
Because I don't think this is the end of the world.
Climate has varied dramatically over the last 8000 years alone. The polar bears survived...as evidence... polar bears.
Despite some disruptions...like the submergence of several coral atolls in the Pacific (which may have precipitated the migration of the Maori to New Zealand.) ....the shifting of arable bands and whatnot.
Civilization tended to do better during warm periods....
This is not to say I'm as unconcerned as this guy... good grief.
Jerry Pournelle's comments on the first Greenland barley crop in 600 years are instructive.
Russell Seitz called yesterday to tell me that Greenlanders brought in the first barley harvest in over 600 years. That's global warming.
Viking settlements in Greenland endured if not exactly thrived between approximately 1000 AD and 1300 AD. From 1330 to 1410 they dwindled and died. While there are more detailed accounts and explanations, the simple fact is that before 1325 it was warm enough to support the colonies, and after 1330 it got cold and they died.
Note that the west coast of Greenland is not part of the Gulf Stream climate system. It is not closely coupled with Northern Europe, which also enjoyed a Medieval Warming from somewhere before 800 AD until 1330 when the Little Ice Age began. Kyoto addicts have dismissed that warming period as weather, not climate, a local phenomenon and not an indication that the globe was warmer in historical times.
The "hockey stick" theory is that global temperatures have been flat until recently and how are headed higher and higher in a dramatic manner. The long period of flat temperatures is inferred from ice cores, lake sediments, tree rings, and other such data. The algorithms for converting these data into temperatures is the critical item, and there is considerable controversy over its validity. The hockey stick theorists long resisted publication of their algorithm.
In computer science, Garbage In -- Garbage Out is an axiom; but of course if I can manipulate the algorithms in a secret fashion, I can get any output from any input.
The bottom line of all this seems clear enough: there is global warming. As Arrhenius told us about the turn of the Century, increased levels of CO2 can contribute to that warming, and there is no reason to suppose that is not true. The warming trend began before CO2 levels rose enough to cause it; the warming trend began early in the 19th Century as the Little Ice Age ended.
How much CO2 contributes to the present warming trend is unknown. It did not contribute to the Medieval Warming. There is considerable evidence that during the Medieval Warm period the Earth's temperature was higher than it is at present.
We survived the Medieval Warm, as we survived the Little Ice Age. Civilizations thrived during the Medieval Warming Period.
It would be useful to know just what is happening, and whether we can do anything about it. One thing we could do is paint all our roofs white. For some reason there is no national panic about dark colored roofs.
Note that while he might be called a "denialist "Dr. Pournelle is not denying global warming and he agrees that it is important to study it.
Also, the white roof idea is not as silly or flippant as it might sound....I think it is quite a good one...urbanization has drastically changed the albedo of the planet...a study of mitigating that might be useful....
If, as some believe, we are in a natural period of warming, due to solar activity or other causes, and if (as seems very likely) the CO2 levels are much higher due to pulling out long lost carbon, then we could see a really fast disruptive warming.
However, these in my mind are not as worrisome as some other threats...and given the fact that people, polar bears and kitty cats weathered the changes just between Roman times and now (Roman Warm Period/ Dark ages Cold Period/ Medieval Warm Period/ Little Ice Age...scary current spike)
the concern over climate change seems overblown
What, you may ask, are these far more pressing issues?
This is terrifying. Heavy metals like mercury, cause nervous system disorders, insanity and death. They are introduced into the environment mainly by disposal of electronics, batteries and the burning of coal. In theory this should be mitigated by curbing CO2 emissions given that a big percentage of the mercury release into the oceans is via coal. But the focus on CO2 is as much about socialist leveling schemes as the environment. Kyoto...which Bill Clinton , not Bush2 rejected BTW...gives heavily polluting 3rd world countries a pass to catch up to the US Europe and Japan. all the while chugging away...since the only thing Kyoto worries about is CO2 their far worse records on other pollutants get a pass.While the FDA link is scary enough....look what mercury poisoning did to Minamata Japan. This stuff concentrates through the food chain (like any pollutant) and is very hard to get out. This is insidious but is lost in the Global Warming buzz. Mitigating strategies in the short term are things like the Presidents Clear Skies Initiative
which was much maligned but facilitates reductions of up to 70% in non CO2 emissions. The singular focus on CO2 has caused this to go virtually ignored when not outright opposed. It also reduces pressure for more of this sort of thing not just here but abroad where it is really needed. Massive increases in the size and number of batteries for hybrid and electric cars and an increase in the use of mercury vapor containing bulbs...as individually benign as they may be...contribute to this problem....but they (in theory) reduceCO2 so they are loved by the Greens.... focus on the wrong thing is actively counterproductive.
Plastics in the Ocean
In the North Pacific, plastics now outweigh plankton. Besides the slow leeching of toxins into the sea, plastics....which often "behave" like jellyfish or other plankton...are ingested by whales, sea turtles and other already stressed organisms which then choke, starve, or are poisoned. There isn't ANY correlation between this and CO2 reduction....so it is not getting near the attention it deserves. Mitigation might involve simply adding cornstarch to most plastics, bounties for plastics recovered....(if theres more of it than plankton, a few hears of trawling for it might be profitable...especially if sold to recyclers)....and a ban on some types of plastic products. It would be dealing with a far more alien threat than CO2 and warmth....but....no...
I have little respect for the Greens....but here is where my respect resides, because this is one of the few things they were well and truly right about....and thanks to them much has been done to mitigate this...more than anything in fact, but emissions (especially from those 3rd world nations that get a pass from Kyoto) are still wiping out whole swaths of continents and destroying areas never touched by it before. In the US, the advent of ultra low sulfur diesel and the aforementioned Clear Skies initiative promise vast improvements, but the lack of credit we get does nothing to encourage the nations with far worse records than us on this...and the attention sucked up by global warming makes this issue seem...well so damned '70s...
Actually getting some attention because of the blinkered notion that forests are efficient carbon sinks, deforestation is a tremendous eco-nightmare in the nations that get Kyoto passes. The US is doing better than anyone in this regard, and now has far more trees than we had 150 years ago...though, cropland alone, not to mention development make it unlikely we will approach the tree #s of 1800. Tree farms, hunting preserves and nature preserves are good ways of mitigating this, but the first two are anathema to the anti-capitalist Greens. The developing world needs anything that will add rather than detract from their economies....the first two do. Tree farms if used with old growth hedgerows can be fairly good for biodiversity, and the success of bringing game species back from extinction has been demonstrated in the US with the alligator....and rather too well with the white tailed deer. In African countries where poaching is controlled good results have been obtained with elephants...deforestation contributes to a myriad of other issues , desertification, ground water depletion, erosion/runoff related pollution amongst them....but in the eyes of many the front line of the fight for the environment is harassing a family in an SUV and not the shaving of other nations forests...
Deep Sea Ecosystem depletion
Deep sea species take decades to mature, so any sustainable fishery is unlikely, yet this is the area getting massively exploited right now... this is getting reported, but the claims of total oceanic biosphere collapse sound so far fetched that they are, due to the 'boy who cried wolf' effect, put by many on the right in the global warming file...and on the left taken as a call to action on global warming...which is tangentially if at all related to fish at that depth. And so this problem is all but ignored....particularly when the Sea Shepherd assholes become the face of that issue. The bitch of it is, total ecological collapse of the oceans may not be much of an exaggeration....we simply don't know much about that band of life and what we do know supports rather than detracts from this awful scenario,
I haven't even talked at length about water issues, ozone depletion, killer asteroids, emerging diseases, robot uprisings, or nuclear or biological terrorism....
As for solutions to GW and the more pressing problems, well, the BMCTOSB's are on the job, looking at nuclear power, biofuels, geothermal and niche elements like solar, and debunking some silly ones. Rest assured though, if anyone is the least bit serious about this....nuclear is on the menu.
The science babes, will,of course be giving periodic reports here.
I'm off today....I've still got lots of work to do around the yard but I'm taking some time off to do some blogthings I needed to do before now.
Blogging will be limited after Monday as I'm going on active duty for 3 weeks and the Coast Guard is the strictest service regards bloggers.
Thus I need to get the various blogthings I haven't figured out yet....er....figured out. I'm really not at all computer savvy and the idiot-pruuf system at blogger rather concealed this fact....hell....I'm unsure of what a ccs is
anyhoo I'm poking about testing stuff below the fold.
May 22, 2007
...until now...thanks to You Tube.
...and part 2
Keep in mind this was done by fans...painting cells the old fashioned way....with little or no computer assistance. It is actually a pretty damned impressive accomplishment.
UPDATE: It actually compares well in animation quality to this early Daicon video by what became the Gainax people.
May 21, 2007
Well, with my active duty stretch coming up in 7 days, I've got a ton of chores to do over the next few days...I'll likely not be around much...and I'll certainly not look as good doing said chores as Chun Li here.
UPDATE: Formatting cut off the watermark of this cute piece. It's Crimson Jassic .
UPDATE2: Yikes! a lot of it is beyond NSFW!
UPDATE Final: Formatting fixed.
The BBC reports on how overreach pushed the Japanese away from the negotiating table on the whaling ban.
Reagan agreed not to precipitously eliminate Japanese fishing rights in US waters...which because of the myriad of small islands still under our protection at the time was a huge swath of the Pacific.
This would reduce the hardship upon the Japanese fishing fleet associated with the ban of whaling.
.......Again, it seemed that an end to Japanese whaling was in sight. However, the court action continued, the NGOs claiming the administration had no right to make a deal with Japan.
Eventually, in June 1986, the Supreme Court ruled in favour of the administration. The deal, apparently, was sealed; in return for keeping its fishing nets full, Japan would hang up its harpoons for good.
The next month, Japan formally withdrew its objection to the whaling moratorium....
Of course the greens then did an end run around this, making short term common cause with US fishermen, they managed, in a series of court battles, to get the Japanese barred from all US controlled territory...a huge swath of the Pacific.
The greens seem, by and large, to not be interested in win/win solutions or compromise. Their environmentalism is their religion, those who disagree with them are infidels, and those who council reason and compromise are their heretics...all must be destroyed...or at the least degraded and humiliated.... It seems they can countenance no face saving or non degrading option for those they oppose (who are beneath contempt in their eyes).
I see this attitude in school a lot, (and, in some ways, even civil society) this is not surprising.Some years ago, I (an undeclared undergraduate) was explaining to a grad student at school the potential that thermal depolymerization had for waste disposal and energy independence and that buzzword of the 2000s...carbon neutrality. The person in question knew the basics and was very enthusiastic...until...he found out that this did not mean that the oil companies would be put out of business...in fact since the biofuel product was chemically similar to petroleum they could, in theory, adapt their existing physical plant in some cases to refining biofuel...
This was a terrible heartbreaking disappointment to the guy, who was even more horrified that a Thermal Depolymerization plant had gotten a grant from the Bush administration for basic research.
It was much more important that the oil companies be hurt...be destroyed...have those who worked for the unclean tainted companied cast out....this precipitated a rather scary rant in which he renounced the technology as a "trick" and condemned what he had earlier been quite enthusiastic about...he had had a grasp of how it worked, but the potential for NOT PUTTING THE PEOPLE HE DIDN'T LIKE OUT OF JOBS delegitamised it for him.
Now in fairness this is college and as such well insulated from the realities of day to day life NGOs are in theory (very tenuous. unsupported theory) supposed to be adults who interact outside academia.
They are not of course and in turning this black and white religiosity into policy proposals they are counterproductive in the extreme.
Well upon Wonderduck anyway....
We do have some big cicada outbursts in select counties every 13 to 17 years. This year we are supposed to get a very localized big one (up near Luray I think).
Actually we have cicadas every year in Virginia because of staggered hibernation periods and these "dog day cicadas" are bigger than most!
BUT THAT'S NOT ALL!! Here in Virginia we also get jellyfish infestations!
Hundred degree heat with 100% humidity in August! We have icestorms, snowstorms and we're just far enough north to get some of the worst 'Nor'Easters'! We get hurricanes! We get tornadoes! We even get earthquakes! (YES WE DO TOO!) In the fine clay soils of the mountains we get frost heaves, we get avalanches and like everyone, we get floods, and forest fires and we've got six species of poisonous snakes (OK 4 are rattlesnakes...but one, the cottonmouth, is one of the most aggressive venomous snakes in the world!) , yellow jackets, alligators, sandspurs, PeTANs black widows, brown recluses and fire ants plus we occasionally get red tides!
So I would not get all worked up about the return of the cicadas...if ...
.....If it didn't coincide with the return of Rachel Lucas to blogging, where she gives unsolicited advice to guys who use dating sites....which I'd think is a lost cause, but....)
BUT THAT'S NOT ALL not one but 2 posts by Bill Whittle who's not been blogging for months! He gives another of his literate, rational and inspirational screeds ...er...and then suggest we move into virtual reality and start a utopian community to get away from the bad people.....I'll...er...think about that...
As if that wasn't disturbing enough.. in comment 5 to this post Habib explains EVERYTHING!!
(thanks to Phil Bowmeister for the last pointer)
Something is up...
(duck, cover, all that)
May 20, 2007
Theoretically I just got off my CG drill weekend....sort of...I may have one more task to perform around 5 AM, in the meantime, I have been toying with templates....and embarassing myself!
I'm trying to change the width of the sidebars and a few other things....to no avail.
I'm till learning the ropes here a mee.nu
I'm not exactly computer savvy so this not a reflection on the host...who rocks BTW.
In the meantime....Eagle Speak covers a bit of Coast Guard History and does a superb job marking the anniversary of the international ice patrol.
May 19, 2007
Nope...not time lapse...it's really moving that fast! More on this here.
Hat Tip: Zooilogix...via Jerry Pournelle
May 18, 2007
A RAMPAGING GORILLA!!
AMSTERDAM, Netherlands — A 400-pound gorilla escaped from its enclosure and ran amok in a Rotterdam zoo Friday, biting one woman, dragging her around and causing scenes of panic among dozens of families before being subdued, zoo officials said.
My life is now complete.
Maxim Popenker, who runs an excellent military firearms reference site, has just added a page on civilian firearms.
His first choices are interesting to say the least.
The Coast Guard's patrol boats are getting long in the tooth and are desperately in need of a replacement.
The immediate problems go back to the '80s.
The Coast Guard had large numbers of 82' and 95' patrol boats. All were slow but useful. The 95 foot boats had been designed in WW2 and produced over several years in different batches, their hulls were quite worn out, the 82'Point class had been built in the '60s they were cramped but useful vessels though a large number had been given to Viet Nam to assist that nation in its attempt to stave off the evil that ultimately consumed it.
As a stop-gap, the Island class patrol boats were ordered in small numbers in fits and starts in the early to mid 80's. Congress was unwilling to fund the CG and they were collateral items in drug war legislation with some actually being bought for the CG by the Navy! The design was (by congressional order) not an American one but an off the shelf Vosper export design. Now the Brits have nothing to learn in the field of shipbuilding, but this was an export design that put paper performance ahead of operational characteristics. The Coast Guard knew this but they needed something fast to catch drug smugglers, the ships could be built very quickly and anyway, they were just considered a stopgap until the Leopold Class was to be commissioned in the early '90s.
The Leopold class was an interesting design. A very strongly built 120 foot patrol boat the craft would have been capable of 30 knots or more despite far stronger construction than the lightly built 110's. They embodied every lesson learned in Patrol Boat ops for the last several decades. They would have had a secondary coastal ASW capability in wartime. These cutters were much needed replacements for a hundred small cutters that were at or past the end of their service lives and the USCG had high hopes for them.
Alas, the Congress canceled them around 1990. A few more 110's were ordered, but the Coast Guard has had a patrol boat deficit since the late '80s. Leopold was laid up incomplete and ordered scrapped.
In the mid 90's a different Congress financed the 87' Barracuda class.
These are quite small cutters. They are NOT replacements for the seagoing 95's and 110's. They are really revenue and law enforcement boats. In those tasks they excel, especially as they are small enough and have a shallow enough draft to get into nearly all small boat stations, and patrol and conduct rescues inshore (an important and little appreciated requirement).
In the late 90's and early 'naughts the first batches of 110's were coming up on the end of their design lives and generating harrowing sea stories for their crews. The Coast Guard began looking at replacements and began designing the ideal cutter of the future.
The ICOF involved a lot of design work as it was to have a composite hull for long life, high speed, high fuel efficiency, a high degree of automation, be operable in any sea state and generally be a mass of conflicting requirements....all under 150 feet in length.
The composite hull took time to develop and the materials science did not progress as planned. The CG wanted to integrate the new Deepwater C4I systems into the new vessels from the start and wanted a homogeneous class for ease and inexpensiveness of maintainability.
The solution to this delay was to completely refurbish the 110's into 123's adding the safer and manpower-saving stern launching arrangements of the 87's. The vessels were stretched 13 feet, their hulls were refurbished and prototypes of the new communications system were installed. This was a logical choice to compensate for the delays in the new design. The planned future vessels would come online as the 123's were wearing out and machinery and equipment in the maintenance pipelines could be switched at once.
Unfortunately the 110' hull did not stretch well.
Unlike a certain-other-debacle this does not seem to be the result of failure to do ones job, but rather a genuine marine engineering learning experience. The stretched hulls were extensively computer tested, but certain choppy seas cause stresses that were not foreseen in the lightly built hulls. The result was yet more harrowing sea stories and the laying up of the refitted ships.
Now there is a problem....the CG needs patrol boats....like yesterday.
But what should they buy, the ultimate cutter design is still decade or 2 off and we have got to get something in the water now.
I'm not an engineer nor a Boatswains mate. I'm certainly not an officer, but this is a BLOG! So keeping in mind my stock disclaimer, here are my thoughts on the matter as I commence tilting at windmills far above my paygrade!
First thing! No more surprises....off the shelf designs only for now.
One obvious choice would be the NAVY/Coast Guard Cyclone class patrol boat. It's very highly regarded in Coast Guard service, uses the same diesels the CG 110's use, is fast and is already in service .
From Australia we have this well proven design from Tenix. Their 56 meter Search and Rescue craft is based on their stock 57m fast attack craft, but it has actually been built! Two were delivered to the Philippines a few years ago. The Philippine Coast Guard is so pleased with the design that they are ordering 6 more of these instead of buying more of the similarly sized Cyclone class ships (they operate 1 of those too). The design is interesting for a number of reasons. It is reasonably fast (26 kts). It has a large (enclosed) rescue deck for survivors (or migrants). It is very seaworthy and despite its small size it has a landing deck for a small helicopter. There is no hangar but the cutter seems to have a similar capability to the larger Reliance class cutters with 1 third the crew in a package 7knots faster and no bigger than the Cyclone class...ie one that can fit in many Coast Guard stations. It's 20-30 feet longer than the CG seems to want but its manning is reasonable (though admittedly 10 more than a 110'). It is likely more seaworthy than a 110' and it is very well adapted to SAR duty. In all likelihood its maintenance and operations costs are fairly low (these being of PARAMOUNT importance to the Philippine Coast Guard).
Versatility is the watchword of the Coast Guard, and few vessels are as versatile as Denmark's Flyvefisken class. These 35 knot vessels are nominally fast attach craft, but are fitted with modules for pollution control, search and rescue, oceanography as well as 4 weapons modules for SSMs, SAMs minesweeping gear, and torpedoes. The heavy weapons are superfluous in CG service but a case might be made for one or more of the neat 12 packs of Evolved Seasparrows or perhaps a SeaRAM on overseas deployments. Sooner or later an asshat is going to take a potshot at a cutter with a missile and a good point defense missile would be useful...especially onewith secondary antiship capability...decadent I know.... the point is the vessel is quite adaptable to a war situation if necessary.
The HUGE workdeck (used for mines and torpedo tubes in RDN service) would lend itself admirably to ATON (aids to navigation) work and pollution control in the rare cases the CG has to do that. Base crew without the big weapons (which the CG would rarely if ever use) is 19....very economical indeed. There are 4 modules for weapons or other kit. Forward the Danish models are fitted with a 76mm gun so the CG's superb 57mm weapon would be no problem, let alone the smaller guns we could actually afford to put on it right now.The hull is constructed of a fibre-reinforced plastic! Despite this, these ships are minimally ice strengthened (but NOT ice breaking) and designed to operate safely in some of the worst seas on the planet...the Atlantic between Denmark and Greenland. This is a VAST improvement upon the CG's 110's (which, with their hull plating about the thickness of a nickel(!) do not deal well with ice).
With a waterline length of 164 feet it is closer to what the Coast Guard says it needs. The speed is remarkable but depends on a gas turbine, (fuel hawg!) note that on cruising diesels alone the speed of these vessels is still 20 kts A Coast Guard version would likely make 26-30 kts on uprated diesels not optimized for cruising, or perhaps 4 diesels (possibly at the expense of one of the mission modules). I like this one a LOT.
Going a bit smaller we come to this Lurrsen design for the German Sea Rescue Service. Only 144 feet long, and drawing 10 feet of water, these ice strengthened vessels are capable of 26 knots, have a stern launched rescue boat, and are designed with north sea winters in mind. The big fire monitor on the bow could easily be replaced with a machine gun or light auto-cannon. Incredibly, they have a small helipad for light helicopters, and though this tiny platform might give airdales harrowing seastories, it is a useful emergency capability to have, extending the range of small choppers or allowing wounded rescuees to be medi-vacd. The German Maritime Rescue Service is a civilian organization that exists only by private donations therefore economy of operation is high on their priority list. These vessels were built in the 70's and are very highly regarded. Lurrsen still advertises being ready to build them and the company seems quite proud of the design.
Their likely replacements are represented by the very similar (but slightly larger ) Herman Marwede. A bit slower with a much higher superstructure, this vessels helicopter arrangements seem less....scary. The high focs'le looks to improve seakeeping but the moderate freeboard and flush deck of the Essberger might be better for some SAR situations (yes I'm way beyond my expertise here). I'm not sure if this ship is ice strengthened, but given the operating area I'd be surprised if it wasn't. The ship is still brand new so I don't know if it is as well regarded as the Essbergers.
There are myriad other designs as well by many very highly regarded naval architects, but these are in service, seem to be working quite well and are reasonably economical to operate.
So let's buy something!
Anyhow this concludes my un-liscenced foray into marine procurement.
UPDATE: Welcome Murdoc Online readers!
UPDATE2: Note that in referring to the 123s STRUCTURAL problems as unforeseen, I was not suggesting that the other issues that have been widely reported were as well. However the contractor related issues regards wiring and shielding, were, as I understand it, not nearly as serious as some reports suggested and were fixed almost immediately.
Also, while the work-deck of the Danish craft would make them useful as supplemental buoy tenders, the lack of both a full sized buoy hold and a true icebreaking capability would mean that the versatile "black hull fleet" would still be needed.
I dunno, I'm busy but here's a roundup....
Astro has thoughts on the new anime "season" I'm really looking forward to "Darker than Black".
Pete Zaitcev has 7 irons in the fire at the moment.
Pulp Junkie has reviews of All Quiet on the Western Front...the silent version of The Last of The Mohicans and is doing capsule reviews of TCM's programming.
Over at Gorilla Daze, Allan Harvey has been blogging up a storm of comic book related reviews and history...and he has a very special cover of the week...well...at least the slash writes itself.
There are always gems at Chizumatic, but the fact that there are no permalinks there mean one must check in frequently to catch the fleeting, ephemeral goodness.
UPDATE: Wonderduck has posted thoughts on the news shows as well, with minimal overlap.
I hope you've picked up on the little secret in this story: It's all about saving. The people who end up better off take their financial situations seriously and plan ahead. They think about how to manage their money effectively, and they save. How do you fare in this department? Do you have an emergency savings fund?
Hat Tip: Transterrestrial Musings
I've certainly seen this in action.
Many acquaintances in fandom over the years who lamented their financial woes wore their IQ on their sleeve and pointed to people they believed were less intelligent (and therefore deserving) as proof of the unfairness of "the system".
As for myself, regards the things to keep you poor I've certainly done all of them except divorce, which requires marriage, and dating both of which are quite high risk activities for guys financially.
As to whether I'm an object lesson in 'poor smarty pantses' is best left for others to judge.
Though my 401 K is going marginally OK, I don't have much at all in short term savings, . (I know this latter comes as a terrible disappointment to a certain former Nigerian Finance Minister)
Much more comprehensive and down to earth discussion of this here....
Cassandra over at Villainous Company has posted a long and thoughtful missive on the challenges the Republic faces given the erosion of presidential power.
Yes, I said erosion...there are those who are convinced that this President is setting himself up as Emperor...While a worry for any Republic, regards this guy, I've always been skeptical of that....the non oppression of his most venomous critics being a case in point. Cassandra makes a very good (and worrying) case that the opposite is in fact happening
The office of the president has to be able to make deals, set strategy, and set some form of guidance in foreign policy with the general assurance that a course will be maintained at least until the next election. If the public does not like it....we have elections every 4 years.
This is one of the differences between a Republic and a Democracy. It is also getting very heavily eroded to the point that the office of the POTUS is having its hands tied in ALL things.
Read the whole thing...
And in a different but related vein...
(and I warn you, a rather more partisan one )
... read this too.
The failure of my tuition assistance to come through meant that I still owe the college some money, and therefore can't get my grades. Now I was reasonably confident that I did OK. The only possible shadow on my GPA was a history paper that I turned in late. Now given that the paper in question requires a book of primary sources that the bookstore did not get until AFTER the due date (and the Professor knew this) I was covered....and yet still I festered.
So, I open the mailbox hoping for...oh..the Tax Return..a card....coupon book...anything
But not a letter from academic continuance.
The people who kick people out if their semester GPA falls below 2.0.
When I came back to college, I was coming off probation from my stupid years. I came off probation a year ago, but was put back on it because of a screw up regarding classes I had to drop due to Coast Guard obligations....
I theory this was all resolved, but.....
In MY mailbox.
I looked at the envelope...I put it on my dash and drove to my folks to help them with yardwork....and offer assistance with my grandmother (who just had shoulder reconstruction).
I looked at the envelope....
I emptied the parents catbox...
I looked at the envelope....
I weeded the front bushes and moved limbs out of the parents yard.
No good ever came from a Academic Continuance envelope.....
The college won't let me know my grade until I pay them the last bit of money...the only reason they would let this be known is if....
7 years since I started back....working half hours when I was not on active duty.
7 years wasted.
No money in the bank....just my 401K
All for naught...
living in a trailer...
no prospects for a degree or any job outside the service sector...
I became ill...
I raked the yard....
I sat in my truck , and I held the letter.
I wondered what I'd blown....Had one (or more) my exams been an "F"....had the History paper not been accepted....
I opened the letter.....
I looked at the children playing down the street, their lives before them..I wondered how many would screw up their lives as I had....
All my past mistakes came down on me like a ton of bricks...I became queasy.
I read the letter....
" Your semester GPA is 3.7. You will therefore be permitted to attend Old Dominion University in the Fall. Bear in mind that should your cumulative GPA fall below 2.0 you will be placed on suspension......."
Update: Wow! Thanks for the kind words!
In the comments it was suggested that I'm an honors student. No.
My cumulative GPA is nowhere near as high as my semester GPA, a legacy of my stupid years. Honors students have enough discipline not to have stupid years and it is a disservice to them to assume I am one.
Well, I need a good laugh preferably involving grades....so lookee here....
Via Bits n' Pieces: we get a lesson in gambling.....
Every year I attempt to boost my students' final grades by giving them this relatively simple exam consisting of 100 True/False questions from only 3 chapters of material. For the past 20 years that I have taught Intro Communications 101 at this institution I have never once seen someone score below a 65 on this exam. Consequently, your score of a zero is the first in history and ultimately brought the entire class average down a whole 8 points.
There were two possible answer choices: A (True) and B (False). You chose C for all 100 questions in an obvious attempt to get lucky with a least a quarter of the answers. It's as if you didn't look at a single question. Unfortunately, this brings your final grade in this class to failing. See you next year!
May God have mercy on your soul.
Professor William Turner
P.S. If all else fails, go with B from now on.
B is the new C
And Via Rand Simberg comes this example of what happens when one does not study.
May 16, 2007
(A terrible alternate universe where Carl Macek and Lou Schiemer got the rights to Sailor Moon)
no...that was not bad...that was mildly clever....
As Don reports...something far worse almost came to be.
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