June 04, 2023

Peter Zeihan has Been Saying This for Years

Now,  Next Big Future, which looks at future trends is noticing that demographic collapse is a real thing...and a very bad thing to boot. 




Art by Tokyo-Genso. Buy his art book here!

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May 20, 2023

Addressing the Irrelevancies In a Knowledgable, Erudite Manner


Peter Zeihan is a smart guy. He has a profound understanding of global trade, the shipping industry and various factors that are generally overlooked by not only laymen, but policy makers. He is someone whom one should listen to as he has great insight into second and third order effects of various disruptions on global shipping that many would just call "Black Swans". Do follow him. 

However, he also frequently wears a man-bun.



And that is a warning sign, as can be seen in this video where he exudes a pitch perfect, high-pitched blue-county-sneer as he relates in fantastic, and knowledgeable detail the process of accession into NATO. 
He does this to explain that Russia cannot possibly feel threatened by NATO expansion because the process is democratic. 

While the process is a good one, I think that in this context the actual process is irrelevant. 

The Russians, especially the current Government (who are totalitarian assholes) do not care one whit about "process". Totalitarians care about results and the result of the process is that Nato has moved closer to Russia's border. Russians are, as a people, clinically paranoid. This stems from the fact that the history of Eastern Europe over the last thousand and a half years has been written in Slavic blood. 

The thugs who run Russia are especially paranoid because they live in constant fear of court intrigues. He takes the argument of the stupidest , 2-digit-IQ, Russia-simps ("Ukraine is a conspiracy run by gay-Jewish-NAZIs"1) to dismiss the concerns of a very large number of Americans. 

The idea that this situation couldn't have been handled better in any way is simply not defensible, and his dripping, Aristocratic contempt for those who do not support neo-lib foreign policy is poor form coming from a guy as well read and used to looking at all sides of an issue as Zeihan is. 

I say this as somebody who generally supports the idea of arming the Ukranians if they are willing to fight and who sees this as the closest we've come to an actual "Munich moment" since, well, 1938. 

I'm GLAD Europe is standing up to aggression in this case, but the people who are justifiably concerned about Russias 5,889 nuclear weapons are also the people who WILL NOT be talked down to anymore by the man-bun wearing laptoppers who, as a class, have made the world a far worse place for  working and middle class Americans. 

Zeihan is a smart guy, but his dripping contempt and strawmanning people's concerns risks the exact sort of backlash that led to the disengagement of the U.S.A. from the world in the 1930s and facilitated one of the worst wars in human history. 

There is GENUINE AND WELL FOUNDED CONCERN that the war and the immense human suffering it is causing is being extended by Western leaders who want to just take out Russia, rather than allow the Ukranians to negotiate.  Even Finland, which famously ground Stalin to a halt in the Winter War had to give up Corellia

Zeihan has made the case elsewhere that Russia sees this as a response to an existential threat and I find his reasoning on this to be sound. Given that postulate, as well as the obvious paranoia of Russia's executive branch ( I don't know what the situation in the Duma is) it is not unreasonable to suggest that we don't allow the sort of mission creep that causes us to go from propping up the Ukraine to "Bear Baiting" when the bear has almost 6,000 nukes. 

Few things are more dangerous than a wounded bear that feels it is cornered. 

There's a lot of blame to go around regarding how we got here because we started on this course back in the late '90s. However, lacking a Tardis or Time Tunnel, we must deal with the world as it is and not let the pencil pushers in Foggy Bottom and Brussels start World War Three.

It's probably an equally bad idea to piss off and scare Middle America so bad that the U.S. Government is forced to abandon Ukraine and bring Russia to the Polish and Romanian frontiers. 

A sneer is not an argument. 



1: Yes...that is an actual argument that some people are making because the world is stupid. 

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May 01, 2023

This is FINE!

Everything is OK. 

There is nothing to see here. 

This is normal. 

Note that Tim Pool is literally advising people to invest in crypto, so remember that those who report problems don't necessarily have any insight into solving them.


Still...



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November 15, 2022

Seriously, What Could an Attack on Poland POSSIBLY Escalate Into?

Party like it's 1939 guys


A (probably errant) missile has landed in Poland, killing at least 2. Poland has scrambled jets (as one does when one is hit by missiles) and there is a lot of talk and nattering on about Articles 4 and 5 of the NATO  charter, but as I type this it is ALL talk and nattering. 

Lots of people are saying lots of things but nobody seems to know anything. 

So don't panic...yet.

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August 29, 2021

Fingers Crossed

While all eyes are on the debacle in the Hindu Kush, another calamity may be forming in the Gulf of Mexico.



The storm is expected to strengthen quite a bit, it is already stronger that Katrina and Rita were when they hit, and unlike them, as I type this is is looking like this storm will make a direct hit, at hight tide.
  


The National Weather Service alert is grim reading, especially for those who remember the events of 15 years ago today.



In about 18 hours, we will know how bad this is. The Federal Government has sent dumptrucks full of dollars to the city for them to fix the levees, pumps, and other infrastructure that failed, causing the calamity 15 years ago . But there are already reports of pump failure and the levee system seems likely to be overtopped by this storm, so it seems that not all of that money was well spent. Though this has been known for at leas three days, the order to evacuate was given too late and people are now being asked to shelter in place


This could be very, very bad.


The storm is expected to be between category 2 and 5 when it makes landfall. Katrina hit as a category 1 or 2.

All we can do now is wait and hope that the levees hold.

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August 13, 2020

Oh No

Oh no no no no.




The issue of China's food security is a problem that's been simmering for some time. However, as we pointed out back in January,  "What we can be reasonably confident of is that the Chinese Communist Party, being a totalitarian state, is going to try to cover-up or minimize the situation to the maximum extent possible and even rather beyond credulity."

As we observed at that time with Corona-Chan, the fact that this grave blunder was being acknowledged and the public was not only being informed but enlisted to help deal with an issue, is a leading indicator that the Chinese government is scared of said issue. That proved a prescient observation regarding the beer-bug. This is why Xi's exortation to not waste food is so concerning. 

On the face of it, one's typical reaction to troubles for a brutal, totalitarian,  genocidal state might seem to fall somewhere between, "So!? We've got other problems....mostly Chicom problems.", and "feel good story of the day". 

However it should be remembered that the Politburo is not going to miss a meal. Over a billion people will suffer and many of them will die horrifically if this famine comes to pass. But there is more to ponder than that.

'Fear not the angry man nearly so much as the hungry man.'

That applies to people mobs and nations.The politburo will do anything stay in charge and protect itself, and will go to insane lengths to alleviate, or at least distract from its people's suffering. China is a nuclear power...in possession of most of our manufacturing capacity. A short sharp war to distract from famine of capture some crops might seem like a good idea to scared officials holding angry mobs at bay. 

As Seneca said: "A hungry people listens not to reason, nor cares for justice, nor is bent by any prayers, or pleas for mercy."

Keep an eye on this situation. It may ultimately be the most consequential of this years curveballs. And keep a month of two's worth of food in your home at all times. 

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March 18, 2020

Meanwhile: In New York City

Things are possible now that ordinarily aren't. 


Watch on Bitchute. Clip originally from here I think.

It may be that only those of us in driving distance of New York or at least a "Chinese Bus" stop fully appreciate the implications of this video. 

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February 26, 2020

Good News: Bad News

UPDATE: More Good News... There are Still ZERO Coronavirus Cases in Antarctica! Yay!

Corona-Chan is quite the cosmo-girl..




83 people being quarantined in Long Island.
Northern Italy is Quarantined....The shelves are empty.
300 are being quarantined in London after one Chevron employee developed Covid-19 at their office building in...Canary Wharf, where, presumably, he/she has talked to LOTS of people in the last 14-27 days.
Corona-Chan has now knocked South America off her bucket list.
San Fransisco has declared a state of emergency.
China is reporting that its rate of infections is going lower. This should be taken with a grain of salt, but given the extreme proactive measures that China has implemented (quarantines work after all), it's not at all impossible.
In what is surely completely unrelated news, leaked documents indicate China's Covid-19 cases are 52 times higher than officially reported.  (~80,000 x 52 = oh dear)

In fairness China's government is concerned about other things.



There is some good news. Despite considerable institutional inertia and red tape, The U.S. company Moderna has sent off its first vaccine for testing. Human trials could start as soon as July, but getting it in bulk would probably take at least until the fall, if, in fact , there are no problems. Besides the normal pitfalls in developing a vaccine in a crash program, it should be noted that China did NOT allow other countries to collect samples from the source in Wuhan, so this must be based on samples the Chinese have provided and patients evacuated from Wuhan. How that may effect the matter is unclear.

Several American companies are fast on the heels of Moderna and an Australian company is working on a different approach that shows considerable promise.

Anyway, fingers are crossed.

When, not if, it catches fire here is the question now, with the CDC predicting severe disruptions.


"Disruption to everyday life might be severe," Messonnier, who is the director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, told reporters Tuesday.

Messonnier said she told her children over breakfast that they will need to begin preparing for an escalated outbreak. Parents and caregivers, she said, should ask officials at their children's schools about plans for school dismissals, closures, and teleschool in case the virus spreads in their school districts.



Don't panic.
Most of us will get through this OK. However, water treatment, power, and shipping require trained people who will probably spend a few weeks in quarantine, or on their backs miserable. Things could get unpleasant for a few weeks. Have some means to get or purify water, and several weeks worth of food, all the cold medicine you can store and and some books. If you develop breathing problems, then go to the hospital, but only then. The window an all the things except the books is rapidly closing.

Keep of good cheer and remember that despair is a sin.
Most of us will get through this as long as we keep our heads.


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February 16, 2020

Gell-Mann and Other Things

In an earlier post we noted that there were a lot of coincidences surrounding the virology labs in Wuhan.

Well, today the news is that..
Oh screw it'
Let Tim Pool rant about it...



So yeah....some news outfits are now saying it came from a lab.

Note that there is no confession or direct evidence of this, but, unlike earlier speculation, which just noted the existence of the virology labs in the city and the virus modifying resume of the large lab's lead scientists, today's headlines come from a research paper put out for peer review. A research paper from a University within China. It does not appear to be on Research Gate any more but it exists here, at least until the Chinese nuke Niue.
 

While I knew there were two virology labs in the city, I was unaware of the fact that one of them was less than 1000 feet from the fish market.


I was also unaware that the local bats are hibernating now, the bats that carry the coronaviruses live 450 miles away from Wuhan,  that no bats were on sale at the market and that bat soup is not "a thing" in Wuhan.

From page 3 of the report:

The bats carrying CoV ZC45 were originally found in Yunnan or Zhejiang province, both of which were more than 900 kilometers away from the seafood market. Bats were normally found to live in caves and trees. But the seafood market is in a densely-populated district of Wuhan, a metropolitan of ~15 million people. The probability was very low for the bats to fly to the market. According to municipal reports and the testimonies of 31 residents and 28 visitors, the bat was never a food source in the city, and no bat was traded in the market. There was possible natural recombination or intermediate host of the coronavirus, yet little proof has been reported.



Good grief.

It's not just that it wasn't bats...it's that there WEREN'T bats. 

Of course this is from a paper from a Chinese University, and these same news outlets were saying two days ago that the scrutiny of the labs were a conspiracy theory.

This should probably cause a reassessment of some premises.

Nothing so exemplifies how much we are like Descartes' hypothetical brain in a jar in the way we get info from our telescreens via the magic-smoke tubes.


Note: Probably did not happen.

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February 14, 2020

More Effective Than Coffee

We've mentioned Coronachan before. It's a Bitchute channel that is aggregating videos from inside China that pertain to the Coronavirus situation. Some are collections of short cellphone videos devoid of context, some are produced by reporters and citizen journalists with meticulous citations and a very few are produced by the channel itself regarding the disappearances of various Chinese individuals who have tried to keep the world informed of the situation.

Even with the very clear statement by the website that some of the content is of uncertain provenance, this is high octane nightmare fuel that will keep you up at night.

In related news, there's this...


Twitter account is still here as I type this.

Sulphur Dioxide emissions from Wuhan spiked Sunday morning. It is being suggested to be likely that animals or people  (or both) are being burned in great numbers, which precisely jives with what is suggested by some of the Coronachan videos.

Again, we don't know what we don't know.
Is this basically NORMAL industrial emissions for Wuhan and Chongqing? Could they be burning the animals at the
How reliable is this satellite info? 

In other news:

Zhengli Shi, the administrator of the Wuhan Institute of Virology, (one of the two(!) virology labs in Wuhan) was involved in a rather infamous 2015 experiment at the University of North Carolina to create a really virulent and deadly coronavirus. The idea seems to have been to figure out a worse case scenario and how to plan for it. One the one hand, preparedness is good...on the other hand virulent and deadly man-made coronaviruses are bad, m'kay...and on the gripping hand, the U.S. had just passed a law against that area of research because genetically engineered genocidal death plagues are a demographic that suffers from a robustly bi-partisan lack of support in Congress.  In any event, Dr. Shi went and filed a patent for genetically engineering coronavirus proteins. Kudos, to the loons over at  Zero Hedge who actually went and dug up Dr. Shi's patent...'cause I frankly never would have thought to look for patents being granted for genocidal death plagues.

It may be that this is nothing, Zero Hedge is hit or miss, but the intensity of the Chinese governments response indicates that they are quite terrified of the potential this disease has in a way they weren't about SARS.

None of this matters now, because it's here, some of us may already have it and don't know it. It kills 1-3 % so while it's scary, it's not the end of the world, but it is likely to make this a really really bad year. Don't panic, stock up some food and keep your spirits up, despair and panic are at least as deadly as this bug.


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February 05, 2020

Tenuous Data, but Worrisome (UPDATED)


There is a report in a Taiwanese newspaper that Tencent (the umbrella corporation that owns Blizzard) accidentally posted actual Coronavirus numbers for a few hours Saturday.

Tencent is managing the official info distribution for the Corona Virus situation. IF this report is accurate and IF the numbers posted were not a data glitch, then TENCENT is likely keeping two sets of numbers, one for the CCP and one for the plebs. This is of concern because the numbers posted were:
INFECTED 154,023
SUSPECTED 79,808
CURED 269
DEAD 24,589 which makes for an interesting contrast to the official figure yesterday of  around 300.
It's unclear to me if the dead are a subset of infected in this tally, that data point, of course, having a significant effect of the actual mortality rate.
Note that as per Zero Hedge, these numbers jive closely with the predictions of UK epidemiologists from 10 days ago.


Note too that even if one dismisses this out of hand because Zero Hedge in in the source list, the official death toll screencapped above as I type this has jumped by about 60 percent since yesterday when it was just north of 300. However, the 5 digit number jives disturbingly with  other reports from Hubei Province.


"Well...Crap"

********************************************
UPDATE:

Coronachan is a BitChute channel that is aggregating videos regarding  the Coronavirus, many of which have been banned or have vanished.  The BitChuter in question seems to be an interested layperson and is unsure of the provenance of some of the videos, but is up-front about that and is asking for info in that regard. The channel links to sources in the video descriptions when available.

The channel could have perhaps chosen a less edgy avatar.

Gallows Humor Artist is Unknown

In other news, it looks like Bat-Soup Belle of Balefulness is vacationing in the Wisconsin Dells.


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September 19, 2019

Rain

Last time Houston got anything like this much rain Ubu Roi nearly got washed away.


Stay dry Ubu.

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March 17, 2019

Well THIS Has Slipped Under the Radar

While we weren't looking, Nebraska got wet.


Picture via AP

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November 11, 2018

100 Years Ago Today...



...the the carnage that broke the soul of the west ended. There was peace.


Yay.
























All those who fought in that war are dead, as are most who remember as children seeing everywhere the maimed and blind the shells and gas had produced.

The second, more well known world war that this miserable, pointless conflict gave birth to has likewise seen most of those who remember it firsthand pass on. A dwindling minority know what a real war, against a peer nation is. For all of the courage of the armed forces of the U.S. and our allies, we've been fighting foes that are clever, tenacious, and murderous, but nowhere near our peers. 

The conflicts that threaten to visit us, whether our opponents be foreign, domestic or both are nothing like the War on Terror. 

If these conflicts come to pass, they will find us on equal terms or starting at a disadvantage. This is an experience that few today can conceive of...which makes the actual war more likely as there is neither the institutional nor cultural reference for what a conflict between equals entails. We encounter no large groups of people with their eyes boiled out by Lewisite...



...or their limbs blown off by explosions. Even a later generation, with Keloids inflicted by a flash brighter than the sun has passed on, with their most poingniant testimonials having faded over time. 

So there is, all around, much bravado born in the special courage that comes from ignorance. 

Today is the 100th anniversary of an armistice that ended a terrible war. We would do well to remember not the victory parades, but why people had them and what they were celebrating the end of.

War is a dreadful thing. 

Of course Auschwitz and Dachau stand in mute testimony to the fact that war is, sometimes, VERY necessary. But we should look honestly at how perfectly dreadful a war between peers is, lest we step into the breach unnecessarily as the west did 104 years ago. 

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February 12, 2017

Yikes! (Multiple Updates)

 It appears that the tallest dam in the United States is about to fail. Evacuations have been ordered for 60,000 people. The Weather Channel briefly interrupted its ZOMG! THERE'S A BLIZZARD IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. IN FEBRUARY!1!! coverage to mention that there is a major issue with the evacuation due to an issue with the roads, though it is unclear what this issue is. Aside from that brief mention, I see nothing on any of the cable news networks which are running perecorded talking heads shows, prison dramas, The Grammys or Anthony Bourdain.


This could be a true catastrophe. Thousands may be about to die, some because they were watching cable news instead of skimming news feeds before going to bed.

Why do we have these 24 hour cable new networks?  This would seem to be news.

UPDATE: Live-Stream here via Ace's sidebar.

UPDATE 2: No dam break yet, and it is looking like if it happens it will not completely drain the lake! still this is a very dangerous situation. Sondra K's site was Instalanched into blogblivion earlier, but she is back up and running and the pictures she has of the dam are worth a look.

It looks like one of the big reasons for this debacle is that infrastructure maintenance is not sexy. Authorities were warned that there were issues with the spillway 12 years ago, but the state decided to spend money on other things (I'll assume it was hookers and blow.)

Of course, given the general unaccountability of government, it's unlikely we'll ever know any of the people personally responsible for nixing the needed repairs of the spillway...oh wait:
A filing on May 26, 2006, by Thomas Berlineran attorney for the State Water Contractors, and Douglas Adamsonan attorney for the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California, discounted the risk. It urged FERC to reject the request to require that the emergency spillway be armored, a job that would have cost tens, if not hundreds, of millions of dollars.
 





In fairness to these two numbnuts, the many issues with infrastructure maintenance are not limited to unseriousness, corruption and the stupidity of bureaucracies...There's malice too!
 For a bit over a decade there has been a movement amongst the environmentalists to remove dams note this article which celebrates the removal of dams throughout the U.S.. Remember, these are the same people who demand that we generate power without burning fossil fuels, so their hostility to the only reliable and scalable non combustible, non fissionable energy source indicates...something...(In fairness it could be madness, malice, a lack of reading comprehension or stupidity)

Note too that the recent drought in California was not helped by a lack of reservoirs.

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October 23, 2015

200 MPH Sustained

Holy Crap!

This is the most powerful hurricane in history and is about to absolutely nail Manzanillo and Puerto Valarta as well as do a lot of damage to Guadalajara. Worse, the  west coast of the USM rarely gets hit by hurricanes, so a lot of the people there have no appreciation for what these storms can do. 



The flooding in Mexico is likely to be biblical when it hits the West Sierra Madre and again when it passes over the Eastern Sierra Madre but it will still be bad when it reaches Texas, where they are talking about 8-12 inches in Houston, which has already been hit by flooding this week and is thoroughly saturated. 



Hopefully, Ubu and Avatar are not in the low areas. 

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August 16, 2015

How Far Can He Go? How Long Will He Stay Free?

The videos of the massive explosion in Tianjin keep getting pulled from the internet. However, one brave reporter, a  He Xiaoxin, DID  get into the affected area and took some pictures. I don't expect this report to remain up much longer, but I'm linking to it.  I'm also posting his pictures below the fold to save them from the inevitable purge. I don't normally nick more than one pic from a news article and clearly identify the source via hyperlink and I certainly don't make a habit of nicking all the picture from a photo essay because that is, frankly, WRONG.


However, the likelihood of his work being bering deemed triggering to the Chinese government and sent down the memory hole moves me to do this. Fortunately, He Xiaoxin has extensively watermarked his work. If one reposts any of these, PLEASE make sure to credit He Xiaoxin and The China Digital Times. Also do read his whole article, not only to give the paper hits but because his text provides valuable context. 

However, if the article is gone then click on "more" and behold...the effects of a quarter kiloton blast....
more...

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August 12, 2015

The Sheer SCALE

 of the blasts in Tianjin made clear by the buildings in these videos. 



This looks to be at least as bad as Texas City or Black Tom

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December 04, 2014

Oh No...

Ruby is a category 5 storm and is going to hit approximately where Haiyan did. Where there are 15,000 people still living in tents.

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October 29, 2014

Snowflakes Can Help Spread Ebola!?

Actually, they have to be precious, special ones


The nurse who was quarantined after returning from treating Ebola patients in West Africa has given the State of Maine until Thursday to let her move freely, setting up what could be a test case of whether state quarantines are legal.
 

This is quite troubling. Ebola is not an unmanageable problem as Senegal and Nigeria have shown, but it is not to be trifled with.
It is said that doctors make the worst patients. Miss Hickox and her colleague in New York, (who lied to authorities about breaking quarantine ) are doing nothing to contradict that notion. 

Ace has some thoughts on this that are worth reading.

The reason we have coercive, non-voluntary quarantines is that we have learned through 4,000 years of recorded human history that people will not voluntarily self-quarantine, and will in fact act irrationally as willing agents of plague.

  It bears repeating that Ebola spread to Nigeria, and very nearly Minnesota because  an American named Patrick Sawyer decided that quarantine ought not to apply to his own special self. One of the problems America faces is a class of people who believe that they are above the laws they set for others. In the case of these doctors such aristocratic self indulgence could make a manageable problem a catastrophe. This would not be the first time political pressure screwed up a public health response, but it is far less excusable since this disease is far easier to screen for.  


The thing I like MOST about the United States is that the hypocrisy and sense of entitlement that some of its doctors have are almost indistinguishable from negligence and stupidity!

In other news: It appears that Ebola Tan's pet skull is named Wilhelm. How this information might be of use is unclear to me at this time. 

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