February 05, 2020

Tenuous Data, but Worrisome (UPDATED)

There is a report in a Taiwanese newspaper that Tencent (the umbrella corporation that owns Blizzard) accidentally posted actual Coronavirus numbers for a few hours Saturday.

Tencent is managing the official info distribution for the Corona Virus situation. IF this report is accurate and IF the numbers posted were not a data glitch, then TENCENT is likely keeping two sets of numbers, one for the CCP and one for the plebs. This is of concern because the numbers posted were:
INFECTED 154,023
DEAD 24,589 which makes for an interesting contrast to the official figure yesterday of  around 300.
It's unclear to me if the dead are a subset of infected in this tally, that data point, of course, having a significant effect of the actual mortality rate.
Note that as per Zero Hedge, these numbers jive closely with the predictions of UK epidemiologists from 10 days ago.

Note too that even if one dismisses this out of hand because Zero Hedge in in the source list, the official death toll screencapped above as I type this has jumped by about 60 percent since yesterday when it was just north of 300. However, the 5 digit number jives disturbingly with  other reports from Hubei Province.



Coronachan is a BitChute channel that is aggregating videos regarding  the Coronavirus, many of which have been banned or have vanished.  The BitChuter in question seems to be an interested layperson and is unsure of the provenance of some of the videos, but is up-front about that and is asking for info in that regard. The channel links to sources in the video descriptions when available.

The channel could have perhaps chosen a less edgy avatar.

Gallows Humor Artist is Unknown

In other news, it looks like Bat-Soup Belle of Balefulness is vacationing in the Wisconsin Dells.

Posted by: The Brickmuppet at 10:05 AM | Comments (8) | Add Comment
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1 154023+79808=233831 v. 24589.
That's a mortality rate of 10.5%.  The Spanish Flu was 2.5%.
If correct that means a planetary extinction event. I'm going to the liquor store to disinfect myself from the inside out.

Posted by: Clayton Barnett at Wed Feb 5 14:16:13 2020 (ug1Mc)

2 The reports that have been coming out of China, with cities basically completely shut down, nobody on the streets, people being physically barred into their homes, etc lend a certain credence to the scarier numbers, those measures are way out of line for what the official numbers present as not really that big a deal.
On the other hand, if this really is a pandemic with a mortality rate of 10.5%, and China is lying to everyone to hide that, that's almost literally inconceivable, even for China.  If there end up being tens or hundreds of thousands of deaths, or God forbid, millions, outside of China, because China didn't get out the warning and let the rest of the world take appropriate actions, it will basically destroy China as a member of the world community.
On the plus side, you would think they must know that, and if it really was that bad, even if they weren't admitting it publicly they'd be back-channeling and we'd see a lot more precautions being taken around the world.

Posted by: David at Wed Feb 5 16:34:48 2020 (A/T0R)

3 Well the official mortality rate right now seems to be bouncing between 2.2% and 2.3% so we're already in the 1918 ballpark.

However, The Black Death killed 30-60% of Europe (mortality was probably much higher as not everyone contracted it)  so even a 10% mortality is not an extinction event. It's just really really bad.

One thing we DO know about this bug is that it has the Chinese government terrified. They probably don't care about being pariahs for some years as much as they care about holding on to power and maintaining order. If the rest of the world is brought low too then the CCP may assume that their world position in the aftermath might be fairly tenable.

Posted by: The Brickmuppet at Wed Feb 5 16:58:39 2020 (5iiQK)

4 I dunno, when Spanish Flu hit in 1918, it didn't hurt Bolsheviks' ability to retain power and maintain order. Heck they probably killed more people than the flu, just because it's in the nature of socialists/communists/fashists. In short, I don't see a threat to the CCP rule in China. They may be just acting randomly like any large bureaucracy that faces a serious crisis after decades of stagnation and degeneracy.

Posted by: Pete Zaitcev at Wed Feb 5 19:08:35 2020 (LZ7Bg)

They may be just acting randomly like any large bureaucracy that faces a serious crisis after decades of stagnation and degeneracy.

Yes, however, this could be like Chernobyl, if it breaks the confidince. The CCP's support may well be more brittle than imagined and a preference cascade could tip it over the edge, I'm not saying that's overwhelmingly likely, just possible.

I'm also not saying it would necessarily be a good thing. Despite the odious nature of the regime, given China's tendency to devolve into warlord phases between dynasties a party implosion could be a much less benign thing than the evolution of the U.S.S.R. into the R.F.

Posted by: The Brickmuppet at Wed Feb 5 19:32:30 2020 (5iiQK)

6 BM:  the percentage matters for who dies.  A 10% mortality rate in east Asia cripples the world economy.  A 10% mortality rate in EUrope/US brings it to its knees as the other 90% stay home.
A 10% death rate is enough to stop the motor of the world in the modern East and West.  And if it stops, the free-food-and-money from North to South stops.  Then the death toll is in nine figures.
PZ:  retain power? Maybe.  Order?  I'd a PolSci prof back in the 1980's say that he and his Boy Scout troop could have taken power in Moscow in 1918.  We know Sidney Reilly was within days of it but for the stupidity of the SR's.

Posted by: Clayton Barnett at Wed Feb 5 19:39:19 2020 (ug1Mc)

7 The screenshot was probably just fake.  You can change any page to say anything with a couple of minutes in the Chrome dev tools.


That said, the official numbers are almost certainly fake as well.

Posted by: Pixy Misa at Wed Feb 5 20:08:56 2020 (PiXy!)

8 I actually wonder if you can use either the Black Death or Spanish flu as a good comparison, given the different context that they happened in increased their impact (See Nutrition - Level of Intake, Middle Ages; World War 1.).  The Coronavirus, at the very least in the PRC, is occurring in populations who are largely not suffering from malnutrition or the exigencies of war, but are suffering from active meddling by their government and slipshod medical care...Oh wait...

As an example that small indicators can be more telling than large ones, Sky News posted a video over a week ago about how villages in the PRC were isolating themselves from the outside world (Some were literally walling themselves off, with brick walls.), without and probably in spite of government injunctions.  That kind of behavior would not happen in the West unless the very structures of society and government were about to finish their collapse.  That it is happening in the PRC right now is very telling.

Posted by: cxt217 at Wed Feb 5 20:49:10 2020 (LMsTt)

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