Jeff Bezos is scheduled to launch about in about 40 minutes as I type this. Blue Origin is planning to launch their New Shepherd rocket into space. This is intended to be a sub-orbital tourist vehicle in competition with Virgin Galactic Among the passengers are (assuming the flight is successful) Jef Bezos, his brother and the youngest and oldest people to go into space. The latter is Wally Funk, one of two surviving members of the Mercury 13 group of women that were sent through astronaut evaluation (and passed) in the late '50s and early '60s. This was not a sanctioned set of tests however, and the women did not go into space, which caused some understandable consternation as they had met or exceeded the requirements and had been told they were in the official program. This story has been somewhat embellished over the years, but Mrs. Funk is an exceptionally talented and experienced aviator and it is good to see her finally get to follow the ballistic trajectory she was told she would those many years ago.
One of the less appreciated aspects of this story is that it appears that, having heard snarky criticisms of rockets as Freudian symbols, Jeff Bezos decided to just roll with it and make it as dildoriffic rocket in the history of mankind.
A Few Questions About the Freedom Phone
There was a big stink last week about a new phone being marketed.
The Freedom Phone is advertised as prioritizing privacy and security. It comes loaded with several free-speech-oriented applications (and Gab) and has several privacy features including something called 'Trusty' which is advertised as a secure phone operating system.
Now there have been numerous criticisms of this endeavor...rather an awful lot, see here, here, here, here, here, here, and, here. That's a small fraction of the stories.
The phone itself appears to be a cheap Chinese model (Umidigi's A9-Pro) purchased in bulk from Ali-Baba for about $119 U.S.. Given the 500 dollar price of the Freedom Phone, this seems to approach the iPhone in mark up.
However, while it is noted that the same result could be had by jailbreaking, stripping out and reprograming an A9-Pro with Trusty and all the other free speech apps (and Gab) that skillset is beyond those who are not tech hobbyists.
For my part, I am a....I am a Mac user. Thus, the only thing I know about computers is that they require good industrial design to keep the magic smoke in the machines, enabling the sorcery to activate the magic mirror that sees through the tubes that interface with the ley lines.
That is, perhaps, an extreme example, but jaibreaking phones and selecting apps that enable privacy is beyond the ken of those for whom smartphones are essentially black box technology. An excellent argument can be made that people should have a basic understanding of the kit we use, but that is not the reality of the present for a great many people, which leads to my first question for the tech literate amongst my readership: Is 300 dollars reasonable to charge for jailbreaking a phone, stripping it of its data and OS and installing a secure OS and apps (as well as Gab) ?
Perhaps more importantly, are Trusty and the other apps really able to be considered in any way secure? I thought that passage through the ley lines was managed by the mighty warlocks, like AT&T or Verizon, meaning that one's data is passing through those that will sift through it.
I'm also curious how much HARDWARE vulnerability is inherent in a phone designed and built in China, as I understand it, for the domestic market. I understand that there is no capacity for domestic production of smartphones in the U.S. but the PRC is not the only place with that capacity, finland, India and Taiwan come to mind.
The notion that someone associated with 'Conservative Inc.' might be a squalid grifter is not beyond the scope of believability.
At all.
The idea that this might be a grift is a very believable one...and yet....
There is an AWFUL lot of what appears to be concern trolling on this matter. Tim Pool suggested that the people doing Freedom Phone are taking fire because they are over target, and the media fusillade against the project is reactionary. However, he has not examined one of these things.
I don't know enough to make a decision, so I ask you gentle readers, (well the tech savvy amongst you) what do you think of this thing are there any prticular red flags not mentioned in the numerous reports on it or can a Chinese phone (or any phone) be made so it will protect the user's data via software modifications.
And if that is the case, are there any horses left in that barn?
1
I don't know that anyone has actually proven that the hardware encryption available to that phone, and others that use various Chinese domestic chips, has backdoors or the like, but I also don't know anyone who truly believes they don't. At the very minimum, the level of encryption provided, even if not explicitly back-doored, is insufficient to stand against any determined attack.
As for as what your network provider can get, you can generally assume that the encrypted content of what you send is safe, but that what kind of data you're sending, and to whom, is not. The protocols to support hiding even who you're talking to are gaining encryption support, but it's not there in usable terms yet.
My thinking on where we are vis a vis the whole encryption vs government and big tech spying, at least here in the US, is that you can't effectively keep Amazon, Google, etc from knowing way more about you than you'd like, in terms of who you talk to, where you go, what you read, your source of news, etc. The govt simultaneously knows both more and less, but has huge problems knowing who and what to actually look at, so unless you do something that raises red flags, it's more a concern in principle than in actual fact. And of course, "trying to encrypt everything you do while displaying thought to the right of Mao" is a very large red flag.
Posted by: David Eastman at Tue Jul 20 14:09:36 2021 (t/97R)
2
No such thing as absolute security. It is always a test against what people are willing to put into breaking in. If you are not carefully considering physical security, hardware, software, etc., you are overlooking a vulnerability. Media fire is because the PRC cannot afford to have it realized that they can and will dick around with the hardware they supply, even though they are known to be doing so. Smartphones are basically a bad idea. Assume anything on them is compromised, and put nothing important on them.
Posted by: PatBuckman at Tue Jul 20 15:40:27 2021 (6y7dz)
3
I'm curious about this phone and like the idea of it. Even if it is a generic smart phone, I don't mind the kind of markup discussed - it would be worth it to me since I lack the time & knowledge to 'jailbreak' a phone on my own. I don't mind letting a capitalist make extra money from me. The deal-breaker for me is 'made in China'. We know they mess with the hardware. I'd be willing to pay more for a phone made in a less adversarial country (assuming the chips aren't imported from China).
Love your blog. I've probably been reading over 10 years now.
Cheers,
Steve S.
Posted by: Steve S at Wed Jul 21 18:37:35 2021 (wcJ16)
Season five of My Hero Academia starts off really strong for two episodes....then slips in to a tournament arc that last for no less than10 episodes. For those of you unfamiliar with the tropes of Japanese young men's comics, tournament arcs are a carryover from Japanese sports comics where the protagonists find themselves in some gladiatorial style duel that last multiple episodes during which the heroes tend to wax poetically about fighting, deliver snappy one liners and generally provide the audience with writing and character development akin to watching paint dry. This seems to be demanded by tradition and marketing and is particularly a signature of the IPs at Shounen Jump, which produces the MHA manga and anime. For example, Tite Kubo's quirky and enjoyable series Bleach went to hell in a handbasket after editors demanded he pad out the story with tournament arcs and marketable side characters after season/volume one.
However, this show has avoided a full fledged tournament arc since season two, and KÅhei Horikoshi used that one to develop the lore and establish characters and their limitations, so it was not just padding. This season's tournament at first blush seem drawn out with 10 episodes dedicated to three training matches in superhero school, but those 10 stories advanced the plot and characters a surprising bit....and at no point in the process did anyone ever say "And now the fight TRULY begins." so it was not a complete waste of time.
More importantly, this is not a 12 episode season, but appears to be full length...
....and with the de rigueur gladiatorial shenanigans out of the way, My Hero Academia is proving to be exceptionally good this season, with a story that delivers surprises, both horrifying and heartwarming in rapid succession. It does this without subverting expectations for their own sake with cheap gotchas. This is a solid superhero story done straight and done right.
One of the questions Horikoshi is asking in this series is "What does it mean to BE a hero?" and, well, heroism is a tough thing. This series is kind of deconstructing a very Japanese trope of boys comics where the motivation is to be the very best because..."BEST!" Being a hero really requires motivations beyond min-maxing one's stats and achievements. There are successful heroes in the typical Shounen mold, and there are lessons to be learned from them, but this series explores the role superheroes play in this society in surprising depth and it's clear that more is needed than just badassery. Nietzsche's admonition to not become the monster one fights, while not directly referenced, looms large here. While this story is VERY Japanese in tone (superheroes, are not vigilante's but licensed, bonded professionals) the story explores the implications and definition of heroism we haven't seen in the genre since Ditko was looking at the subject in earnest.
For instance, there's a whole redemption arc going on now with one of the background heroes, who has achieved his life's goal, and find's it tastes like ashes.
Endeavor, Todorokie's father and the villain of his backstory, is shown to have been an effective hero who has saved thousands, despite being a bit of an asshole. His current self reflection is pretty interesting. Also a subset of the 'dark conspiracy' seem to be heroes, who have adopted an accelerationist philosophy for at least superficially noble reasons. I was actually enjoying the season during the tournament cour, but the last three episodes have taken it to a whole new level.
American superhero books seem to be in a bit of a nadir at the moment, with a number of today's writer's mocking the whole concept via seemingly endless deconstructions. There are suggestions that the genre is played out , and this suggestion is not without merit as U.S. comics have been recycling storylines since at least the '80s. However, with My Hero Academia, KÅhei Horikoshi has shown that the genre can still be fresh and surprising, without sacrificing the idealism of the old works or descending into cynicism.
The standard the show sets for superheroes, All Might, is a sort of combination Captain America and Superman, idealistic, conscientious, and both morally and physically brave. The show's protagonist (Dekku) is striving hard to meet that goal and be worthy of the mantle he's been entrusted with. Moreover, this show's protagonists, even the very idealistic ones, aren't a bunch of Dudley Do-Rights, they're smart, usually punching above their weight, and get by on their wits.
My Hero Academia continues to opine on the importance of not loosing one's idealism, or courage, a reminder that has special significance today.
1
a) I like tournament arcs. b) Zombie Powder is evidence that Kubo Tite never knew how to end a story. The early mass combats in Bleach were weirdly good, but I can see why them, and the shift from before, are where it went down hill for some people.
Posted by: PatBuckman at Mon Jul 19 08:17:53 2021 (6y7dz)
1
<i>Despite my having gotten "the poke" twice, I still have to wear masks at
work, in part for liability reasons because we don't have a high enough
percentage of people vaccinated yet. </i>
Damn, I'm sorry to hear that. By luck, my profession has been pretty insulated from the Covidiocy (I can work from home a lot). It bothers me that in the critical physical jobs that make our world work, the workers are underpaid, overworked, and treated like shit. It's not good, it's not smart, and it's one of the reasons why I'm "off-libertarian" these days. It seems to me like market forces aren't really fixing these problems, and how society really decides how to reward people have little to do with them, and a lot to do with caste systems and social dominance games.
Machinists and engineers are the example I'm most familiar with. The caste divide, and the devaluation of their critical work bothers me.
Posted by: MadRocketSci at Thu Jul 15 13:06:27 2021 (hRoyQ)
2
I'm not particularly underpaid and the company I work for tends to treat is personnel pretty well. But we are working unbelievably hard right now and the inability to get help is causing a cascade effect as people, especially young people get to the end of their rope and let go.
The 'caste' divide you mention, while not as applicable to me, is quite real though and getting worse. It gives a sobering look at the neo-feudalist arrangement many of out anointed are trying to bring about.
Posted by: The Brickmuppet at Thu Jul 15 15:41:40 2021 (5iiQK)
3
Corporate is making a lot of Sam's Club fresh department employees continue to wear masks in states that are mask free. After jab. So people complained, and suddenly corporate starts leaning on everyone to wear masks again! So. Freaking. Dumb.
Posted by: Suburbanbanshee at Thu Jul 15 16:32:24 2021 (sF8WE)
4
Those girls in the foreground need to watch out, because surely there is a pot of petunias incoming.
Posted by: Mauser at Thu Jul 15 23:04:10 2021 (Ix1l6)
5
I don't know how you manage the shift. When I work on any projects like making garden footpaths, planting, or even making a knife at my workbench, it's 2 hours and a long break.
Posted by: Pete Zaitcev at Fri Jul 16 12:20:09 2021 (LZ7Bg)
Ninaninin has been celebrating several streaming milestones and technical upgrades with a re-debut, amendments to her character design, additions to her lore, and, today, an AMA....where this profound thought showed up in chat.
You've got to be kidding me. I've been further even more decided to use even go need to do look more as anyone can. Can you really be far even as decided half as much to use go wish for that? My guess is that when one really been far even as decided once to use even go want, it is then that he has really been far even as decided to use even go want to do look more like. It's just common sense.
I am now truly old enough that I really don't understand these kids today.
1
I was in Mojave to see Spaceship One go to space in 2004. That was a remarkable achievement. Getting a slightly larger, more luxurious version to go not quite as high 19 years later... not so much.
Posted by: David Eastman at Mon Jul 12 02:22:10 2021 (t/97R)
2
Inventions are important. But being able to normalize and commercialize inventions is what makes inventions into practical parts of our lives.
Posted by: Suburbanbanshee at Tue Jul 13 10:54:56 2021 (sF8WE)
3
I've been in Mojave on June 21, 2006 too. I think I may still have a thick paper ticket, about postcard-sized.
Posted by: Pete Zaitcev at Tue Jul 13 13:57:56 2021 (LZ7Bg)
One of the sad epiphanies of my life is that if I'd not bought so many gun mags in the '80s and 90s I'd be much richer, and know much less that is wrong about guns. However, one individual, widely quoted in those magazines was their broken clock moment.
Massad Ayoob is an expert on both the tactical and the legal aspects of armed self defense. He is a national treasure who should be listened to.
Here (for no reason whatsoever, I'm sure) he is discussing the tactical and legal ramifications of having to deal with attacks by mobs in the U.S.A.
The 100th anniversary of the Communist Party is a great celebration for the entire Chinese nation. The power of the state is largely based on the success of its politicians. China's ruling leaders are wise politicians, experienced military leaders, and talented diplomats.
Since 1921, the Chinese Communist Party has successfully ruled the state. Under her leadership, the country has become one of the leaders in the international arena. China is feared, respected and admired. This is a country which many are eager to surpass.
Caviar iPhone 12 Pro Centenary - smartphone design in honor of the great anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party. Restrained and laconic, at the same time bright and full of strength - the appearance of the accessory successfully conveys the character of the party. The case is made of a lightweight composite material with shockproof properties in red and decorated with relief engraving, echoing the national geometric ornaments of China. Contrasting element - decorative frame, gold-plated of the highest standard, engraved with the emblem of the 100th anniversary of the Communist Party of China.
The design is presented in a limited edition of 68 pieces. The numbers 6 and 8 are sacred for China: 6 means luck and career success, and 8 means wealth and prosperity. The limited edition of the collection is engraved with a laser on the side of the smartphone: the name and serial number of the model are indicated.
No the CCP has NOT run China since 1921.
If you've got $25,370.00 and want to impress your progressive friends this ought to work better than an iPhone.
But beware, the bit about 6 and 8 is a superstition, something that the CCP will send you to a reeducation camp for perpetuating, but if you've got 25 grand to spend on a phone that indicates sufficient personal liquidity that one can afford the necessary bribes....at least until conditions change.
Its's good to remember that not only are things getting better, as people remember the founding principles of this nation is the following document, ratified 245 years ago today.
IN CONGRESS, July 4, 1776.
The Unanimous Declaration of the Thirteen United States of America
When in the course of human events, it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another, and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature's God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation.
We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.--That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, --That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn, that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security.--Such has been the patient sufferance of these Colonies; and such is now the necessity which constrains them to alter their former Systems of Government. The history of the present King of Great Britain is a history of repeated injuries and usurpations, all having in direct object the establishment of an absolute Tyranny over these States. To prove this, let Facts be submitted to a candid world.
He has refused his Assent to Laws, the most wholesome and necessary for the public good.
He has forbidden his Governors to pass Laws of immediate and pressing importance, unless suspended in their operation till his Assent should be obtained; and when so suspended, he has utterly neglected to attend to them.
He has refused to pass other Laws for the accommodation of large districts of people, unless those people would relinquish the right of Representation in the Legislature, a right inestimable to them and formidable to tyrants only.
He has called together legislative bodies at places unusual, uncomfortable, and distant from the depository of their public Records, for the sole purpose of fatiguing them into compliance with his measures.
He has dissolved Representative Houses repeatedly, for opposing with manly firmness his invasions on the rights of the people.
He has refused for a long time, after such dissolutions, to cause others to be elected; whereby the Legislative powers, incapable of Annihilation, have returned to the People at large for their exercise; the State remaining in the mean time exposed to all the dangers of invasion from without, and convulsions within.
He has endeavoured to prevent the population of these States; for that purpose obstructing the Laws for Naturalization of Foreigners; refusing to pass others to encourage their migrations hither, and raising the conditions of new Appropriations of Lands.
He has obstructed the Administration of Justice, by refusing his Assent to Laws for establishing Judiciary powers.
He has made Judges dependent on his Will alone, for the tenure of their offices, and the amount and payment of their salaries.
He has erected a multitude of New Offices, and sent hither swarms of Officers to harrass our people, and eat out their substance.
He has kept among us, in times of peace, Standing Armies without the Consent of our legislatures.
He has affected to render the Military independent of and superior to the Civil power.
He has combined with others to subject us to a jurisdiction foreign to our constitution, and unacknowledged by our laws; giving his Assent to their Acts of pretended Legislation:
For Quartering large bodies of armed troops among us:
For protecting them, by a mock Trial, from punishment for any Murders which they should commit on the Inhabitants of these States:
For cutting off our Trade with all parts of the world:
For imposing Taxes on us without our Consent:
For depriving us in many cases, of the benefits of Trial by Jury:
For transporting us beyond Seas to be tried for pretended offences
For abolishing the free System of English Laws in a neighbouring Province, establishing therein an Arbitrary government, and enlarging its Boundaries so as to render it at once an example and fit instrument for introducing the same absolute rule into these Colonies:
For taking away our Charters, abolishing our most valuable Laws, and altering fundamentally the Forms of our Governments:
For suspending our own Legislatures, and declaring themselves invested with power to legislate for us in all cases whatsoever.
He has abdicated Government here, by declaring us out of his Protection and waging War against us.
He has plundered our seas, ravaged our Coasts, burnt our towns, and destroyed the lives of our people.
He is at this time transporting large Armies of foreign Mercenaries to compleat the works of death, desolation and tyranny, already begun with circumstances of Cruelty & perfidy scarcely paralleled in the most barbarous ages, and totally unworthy the Head of a civilized nation.
He has constrained our fellow Citizens taken Captive on the high Seas to bear Arms against their Country, to become the executioners of their friends and Brethren, or to fall themselves by their Hands.
He has excited domestic insurrections amongst us, and has endeavoured to bring on the inhabitants of our frontiers, the merciless Indian Savages, whose known rule of warfare, is an undistinguished destruction of all ages, sexes and conditions.
In every stage of these Oppressions We have Petitioned for Redress in the most humble terms: Our repeated Petitions have been answered only by repeated injury. A Prince whose character is thus marked by every act which may define a Tyrant, is unfit to be the ruler of a free people.
Nor have We been wanting in attentions to our Brittish brethren. We have warned them from time to time of attempts by their legislature to extend an unwarrantable jurisdiction over us. We have reminded them of the circumstances of our emigration and settlement here. We have appealed to their native justice and magnanimity, and we have conjured them by the ties of our common kindred to disavow these usurpations, which, would inevitably interrupt our connections and correspondence. They too have been deaf to the voice of justice and of consanguinity. We must, therefore, acquiesce in the necessity, which denounces our Separation, and hold them, as we hold the rest of mankind, Enemies in War, in Peace Friends.
We, therefore, the Representatives of the united States of America, in General Congress, Assembled, appealing to the Supreme Judge of the world for the rectitude of our intentions, do, in the Name, and by Authority of the good People of these Colonies, solemnly publish and declare, That these United Colonies are, and of Right ought to be Free and Independent States; that they are Absolved from all Allegiance to the British Crown, and that all political connection between them and the State of Great Britain, is and ought to be totally dissolved; and that as Free and Independent States, they have full Power to levy War, conclude Peace, contract Alliances, establish Commerce, and to do all other Acts and Things which Independent States may of right do. And for the support of this Declaration, with a firm reliance on the protection of divine Providence, we mutually pledge to each other our Lives, our Fortunes and our sacred Honor.
The Signatures.....
Georgia:
Button Gwinnett
Lyman Hall
George Walton
North Carolina:
William Hooper
Joseph Hewes
John Penn
South Carolina:
Edward Rutledge
Thomas Heyward, Jr.
Thomas Lynch, Jr.
Arthur Middleton
Massachusetts:
John Hancock
Maryland:
Samuel Chase
William Paca
Thomas Stone
Charles Carroll of Carrollton
Virginia:
George Wythe
Richard Henry Lee
Thomas Jefferson
Benjamin Harrison
Thomas Nelson, Jr.
Francis Lightfoot Lee
Carter Braxton
Pennsylvania:
Robert Morris
Benjamin Rush
Benjamin Franklin
John Morton
George Clymer
James Smith
George Taylor
James Wilson
George Ross
Delaware:
Caesar Rodney
George Read
Thomas McKean
New York:
William Floyd
Philip Livingston
Francis Lewis
Lewis Morris
New Jersey:
Richard Stockton
John Witherspoon
Francis Hopkinson
John Hart
Abraham Clark
New Hampshire:
Josiah Bartlett
William Whipple
Massachusetts:
Samuel Adams
John Adams
Robert Treat Paine
Elbridge Gerry
Rhode Island:
Stephen Hopkins
William Ellery
Connecticut:
Roger Sherman
Samuel Huntington
William Williams
Oliver Wolcott
New Hampshire:
Matthew Thornton
Make a special note of those signatures. When they signed they risked rather greater penalties than ostracism by upper middle class mean girls or even severe platforming and banking difficulties.
They did not give up on their quest for freedom, which took 8 years 4 months and 15 days, and involved more consequential deprivations than being excluded from parties. That long fight by our forefathers provided a different and better option for coping with those who seek to rule us, one that happily provides some small bit of security from even the minor torments that our malign ruling class provides for non-compliance.
After all; Karen can't report what you do in the voting booth.
Posted by: Rick C at Sat Jul 3 17:56:13 2021 (eqaFC)
2
With a flame thrower, but preference, but to each his own.
Posted by: Pixy Misa at Sat Jul 3 22:26:08 2021 (PiXy!)
3
1. Confusing Grandpa's potato masher grenade recipe with Grandma's potato salad recipe.
2. Having it too close when you are using the rocket engine stationary test stand for cooking.
3. Freezer has an operating defect.
4. Unwise experiments using liquid nitrogen for freeze drying.
5. LOX will work.
6. Chlorine Triflouride spill.
7. Saying that potato salad is terrible, in a particularly effective way.
Posted by: PatBuckman at Sun Jul 4 07:33:07 2021 (6y7dz)
4
8. Airbursting the special fireworks for 2021 low.
Posted by: PatBuckman at Sun Jul 4 07:36:01 2021 (6y7dz)
5
The opposite of making love to a porcupine - carelessly.
Posted by: cxt217 at Sun Jul 4 18:01:45 2021 (4i7w0)
This scoop is spreading like a prairie fire in the right-o-sphere now, but I think this story may well be bait. It's just too perfect for the sowing of discord. The black cop, with no trigger discipline, who is now alleged to have shot Babbit is allegedly the same chucklehead who left his sidearm in a visitor bathroom two years ago...and still had his job despite that. This bit of racial napalm just HAPPENS to be dropped on the day before the 4th of July.
As I said. It's just too perfect.
I really think somebody WANTS a racial incident for the cameras that isn't just another Smolletism.
It might be completely legit, but the timing of the revelation and the checking off of every racial box in the right wing point-of-order list causes me some concern.
1
The problem with all these cycle-of-history analyses is that most of human history happened pretty close to a bare minimum of population, wealth, range, and technology, and we're so far off the map that you couldn't perceive any ellipsoid stretched to include us as a "cycle".
Just like WWII was something the world had never seen before, atomic weapons are something the world had never seen before. 7 billion people dependent on the frictionless functioning of an overheated global technological system to eat has never happened before. Global communications have never happened before: The interaction of our brains with computer-mediated media, and the sheer hypertrophy of micromanagement, oversight and bureaucracy that computers enable have never happened to this extent before.
Pretty much every civilization up through 20th century continental Europe could die and people would pick up the pieces and restore some sort of order with little lost. This civiliztion is more than who parks what tolls on which roads: The machinery is necessary to sustain our population: If this civilization blows up, the die off could be unprecedented.
Posted by: MadRocketSci at Fri Jul 2 18:48:30 2021 (hRoyQ)
2
/One/ problem with all the cycle/trend of history analysis.
There's a more general category of error.
All of our observations of history are past.
This isn't a problem when we form theories about widgets, because it is usually safe to assume that a widget is not able to choose to change its behavior based on opinions about the observer, or what is going on. So a widget measured in the future doesn't know the date, and might have the same measured response to the test that a widget measured in the past would have.
Okay, some joker may start talking about smartphones, but the transistors are transistors, and cannot, for example, let out all the magic smoke and then decide to start working again.
So, a lot of time you look at humans, and they aren't motivated to screw around with you, so they aren't putting on much of a show for you. And you can take those observations, and formulate rules or a model that describes them, and it may even be useful predicatively. But mess with them, give them incentive to screw with you, or force them to dance for you, and you may then find yourself surprised.
You can look at people, maybe figure out their magical thinking, and then maybe use that magical thinking to manipulate people.
Manipulation is a somewhat common human behavior.
When a lot of people are doing it, it becomes obvious to some of those they are manipulating.
The manipulated people can in principle choose to avoid that magical thinking.
One remedy to that countermeasure is using force to scare people away from quitting the magical thinking.
Once a regime is deeply invested in using this to prop itself up, it becomes fragile. If it loses the force, it loses the magical thinking, and disappears.
This theory could explain the late bronze age collapse. Some group of failures cost that brand of kings their reputation for mojo, so people decided they no longer got anything for tribute/taxes.
Also, around 33 years ago in 1988.
For good parts of the historical record, the populations involved were not necessarily scholarly enough for magical theories derived from the historical record to take hold of the public consciousness. They had oral history, but that would ahve been 'my grand daddy said', and mostly not 'what this officially approved scholar said'. So, you were not having a lot of manipulative jerks trying for general consumption to appeal to magical theories of historical forces. China and some few other cases being more of an exception.
Marxism is currently a popular family of religions/heresies, and Marxism is definitely such a superstitious belief. We thus now have a lot of people trying to use this magical theory to manipulate folks.
We should expect a greater degree of such scams than were widespread pre-Marx, more such scammers, and much more frequent backlash as a result.
You should be careful how seriously you take any cycle of history/trend of history theory. The more people in power take it seriously, the more likely it is that they are gaming it for power. If they are gaming it for power, there is a risk they tick off enough people to prompt a behavior change that upends that theory.
Posted by: PatBuckman at Fri Jul 2 20:00:06 2021 (6y7dz)
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