March 07, 2009
Perfect
It was perfect.
It was perfect.
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March 04, 2009
Exams Upon Me
Posting has been light due to 17 credits worth of midterms and papers. Tomorrow is a cram day. The rest of the week is exams. Light posting will continue, so here is a pic of Yuki Nagato as compensation.
Pic is by Toshihide Sano
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March 03, 2009
Lumberjack Lass Keeps Us From Hitting Bottom....
Of all the stupid stories to have been reported lately, few hit as close to home as this one about certain extreme greens advocacy of...
reuseable
toilette
wipes
Oh...MY...Gawd.
In related news, one reason Colleen Doran is a professional writer is that while one result of this is that I am without words... she is not. So go and see as she responds to this affront to all that is decent with her rapier like pen...and her chainsaw.
toilette
wipes
Oh...MY...Gawd.
In related news, one reason Colleen Doran is a professional writer is that while one result of this is that I am without words... she is not. So go and see as she responds to this affront to all that is decent with her rapier like pen...and her chainsaw.
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February 28, 2009
State Department Band Names
The Skeptical Bureaucrat mulls over potential names for any garage bands state department employees might want to start.
The Black Passports
Immunity
Chargé d'Soul
Headbangin' Cookie Pushers
The Band Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary
Attachés of Funk
Foreign Policy Fever
Rage Against the Démarche
Dipnotes N' Roses
The Red Hot Vice Consuls
CD/DC [that stands for Corps Diplomatique from the District of Columbia]
D.C.M. [Diplomatic Corps Musicians]
Pea and Gee'd
Back-channel Blues Band
Constructive Ambiguity
Smart Power and the Bilateral Experience
The Foggy Bottom Boys [for a Bluegrass group]
Reclama!
Heh...
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February 22, 2009
Sea Services...What Should we Build? What CAN we Build?
So what sort of ships should we be building the Navy, Coast Guard and Army Transport command to meet their future challenges?
This has been a point of interest on this blog off and on for some time, but the circumstances we are in and the challenges we face have both changed for the worse in the last month.
While I think the Bush administration gets a bit of a bum rap on many things, one area where they certainly did not cover themselves in glory is in the realm of military procurement, particularly on the shipbuilding front. Focused on the various awful conundrums and unpalatable choices the administration was presented with, they chose to leave the shipbuilding policies virtually rudderless in shoalwaters for 8 years, with the predictable result that the surface shipbuilding program is now on the rocks.
This is exacerbated by the fact that the US is in a rapidly deepening financial crisis. With the US having the worst January since the Panic of '96 (That's 1896 btw). Whatever optimism about a short recovery period there may have been dashed...just as we are now saddled with an ill-conceived orgy of spending that will stretch our budget terribly, the challenges facing the current administration in this area are considerable. Money is tight, so tight that the repairs to a cruiser after a recent grounding may affect the preventive maintenance of many other ships.
But wait! There's more! The development of the EMALS catapult system is reportedly in doubt this actually jeopardizes the whole carrier program right now. Other new ships are massively over budget and riddled with quality control problems. The congress wants to saddle the Navy with insanely expensive nuclear escorts that not only cannot be built in any numbers in the best of times, but are problematic from public relations and diplomatic standpoint, as they have a difficult time doing goodwill port calls as they will likely attract luddite green protesters like flies.
All this adds up to the fact that the most vexing questions facing the military may well be not what ought we to be buying...but what can we afford?
We may have to cease carrier procurement for a decade if the 25% defense budget cut desired by many in congress is passed. Hell, destroyers may be off the table too (though that is not as big an issue near term as we have quite a few first class underage units).
Minesweeping, antisubmarine warfare, inshore work, antipiracy operations as well as various subsidiary duties are currently slated to be performed by the Littoral Combat Ships. These ships are designed to be fast, and are fitted to take a mission pack dedicated to whatever mission the ship is assigned at any one time. This was intended to make them cheap enough that a large number (70+) could be bought.
Unfortunately, the new kit cost a lot to develop and the hulls, designed for speeds approaching 50 knots (!?) require very high levels of skill to manufacture. One result is that they cost 450 million apiece with the modules to provide their "teeth" still under development (all that innovative cost-savings doesn't come cheap). They are interesting vessels, not without utility, but they are probably too expensive to acquire in the numbers needed.
Those numbers are not entirely clear but they are fairly large, as all of these procurement calamities coincide with a vast expansion of the number of submarines being operated by nations more or less unfriendly to the US, plus a worldwide increase in piracy as well as an international situation which places a premium on soft power efforts such as disaster relief, "showing the flag" and operations like Continuing Promise and Pacific Partnership....the high tempo humanitarian/diplomacy operations pioneered by the Bush administration .
All of this requires a large number of ships...just as our budget is busted. With many of our vessels at the end of their lives, speed is also of the essence, so it is probably not a good idea to start designing a vessel from scratch or fitting it with groundbreaking technologies.
There seem to be two schools of though amongst navy types as to what sort of vessel we need.
One school advocates something akin to a small frigate, another, a fast attack craft 5-600 tons.
A proposal like the latter (inexplicably called Streetfighter) was the genesis of the Littoral Combat Ship, which, as mentioned, grew in both size and expense.What the FAC/Corvette advocates there fore are proposing is to do the LCS program again, but apply the lessons learned to get it right this time. The benefits perceived are as follows...
Finally, putting all these systems on a small hull is unlikely to involve any significant cost savings over a frigate sized vessel. The hull is the cheapest part of a warship. The missiles, fire control, C4I, ECM and ECCM systems all cost a lot and getting them to work on a small hull is problematic due both to having antennae mounted close together and the fact that a small hull pitches more. There are certain navies whose needs are met by such a tight design particularly if they use (like Sweden does) armored docking facilities, but for us, especially given the forced financial parsimony we face its probably better to go with a frigate sized vessel perhaps acting as a "leader"to carry helicopters and more elaborate systems.
One option is to modernize the remaining Oliver Hazzard Perry class, perhaps along the lines of the Australian's upgrade. This is potentially troublesome as the Perry's have been run very hard and likely have microcracks and other difficult to repair wear and tear. Also, the Australian upgrade has not been without problems, but at least the lessons have been learned. If an upgrade and refurbishment can be done cheaply then the vessels could have their life extended a decade or so which might get us over the financial hump. Reinstalling the MK 13 launcher would give the ability to 40 or so land attack versions of Harpoon and ESSM would take care of the AAA requirement.
As for new build frigates any such construction must have economies ferociously enforced as was done with the Perry (FFG7) class. Happily, there is actually a US design that is viewed favorably and while it has had some minor problems these have already been found out and are being fixed*. The Coast Guards National Security Cutter is extraordinarily seaworthy, reasonably fast and has very good helicopter facilities. It is lightly armed but there appears to be a space reserved for a VLS or something behind the 57mm gun....Put a VLS nest there. A 16 cell unit would look to be the maximum. That gives you 32 ESSM and 8 ASROC or 64 ESSM. As for sensors, on the high end, fit SPY1-K (an austere export version of AEGIS). Bolt on HARPOON or PENGUIN to taste.
Fit a towed array sonar in the area used for boat handling aft or modify it to a working deck for handling various mission kits and supplying the aforementioned little gunboats.
Fit as hull sonar a development of the same sets on the old FFG7's or refurbished FFG7 sets.
You then have a low end but still capable replacement for the FFG7s with more capability than they ever had.
This has been a point of interest on this blog off and on for some time, but the circumstances we are in and the challenges we face have both changed for the worse in the last month.
While I think the Bush administration gets a bit of a bum rap on many things, one area where they certainly did not cover themselves in glory is in the realm of military procurement, particularly on the shipbuilding front. Focused on the various awful conundrums and unpalatable choices the administration was presented with, they chose to leave the shipbuilding policies virtually rudderless in shoalwaters for 8 years, with the predictable result that the surface shipbuilding program is now on the rocks.
This is exacerbated by the fact that the US is in a rapidly deepening financial crisis. With the US having the worst January since the Panic of '96 (That's 1896 btw). Whatever optimism about a short recovery period there may have been dashed...just as we are now saddled with an ill-conceived orgy of spending that will stretch our budget terribly, the challenges facing the current administration in this area are considerable. Money is tight, so tight that the repairs to a cruiser after a recent grounding may affect the preventive maintenance of many other ships.
But wait! There's more! The development of the EMALS catapult system is reportedly in doubt this actually jeopardizes the whole carrier program right now. Other new ships are massively over budget and riddled with quality control problems. The congress wants to saddle the Navy with insanely expensive nuclear escorts that not only cannot be built in any numbers in the best of times, but are problematic from public relations and diplomatic standpoint, as they have a difficult time doing goodwill port calls as they will likely attract luddite green protesters like flies.
All this adds up to the fact that the most vexing questions facing the military may well be not what ought we to be buying...but what can we afford?
We may have to cease carrier procurement for a decade if the 25% defense budget cut desired by many in congress is passed. Hell, destroyers may be off the table too (though that is not as big an issue near term as we have quite a few first class underage units).
Minesweeping, antisubmarine warfare, inshore work, antipiracy operations as well as various subsidiary duties are currently slated to be performed by the Littoral Combat Ships. These ships are designed to be fast, and are fitted to take a mission pack dedicated to whatever mission the ship is assigned at any one time. This was intended to make them cheap enough that a large number (70+) could be bought.
Unfortunately, the new kit cost a lot to develop and the hulls, designed for speeds approaching 50 knots (!?) require very high levels of skill to manufacture. One result is that they cost 450 million apiece with the modules to provide their "teeth" still under development (all that innovative cost-savings doesn't come cheap). They are interesting vessels, not without utility, but they are probably too expensive to acquire in the numbers needed.
Those numbers are not entirely clear but they are fairly large, as all of these procurement calamities coincide with a vast expansion of the number of submarines being operated by nations more or less unfriendly to the US, plus a worldwide increase in piracy as well as an international situation which places a premium on soft power efforts such as disaster relief, "showing the flag" and operations like Continuing Promise and Pacific Partnership....the high tempo humanitarian/diplomacy operations pioneered by the Bush administration .
All of this requires a large number of ships...just as our budget is busted. With many of our vessels at the end of their lives, speed is also of the essence, so it is probably not a good idea to start designing a vessel from scratch or fitting it with groundbreaking technologies.
There seem to be two schools of though amongst navy types as to what sort of vessel we need.
One school advocates something akin to a small frigate, another, a fast attack craft 5-600 tons.
A proposal like the latter (inexplicably called Streetfighter) was the genesis of the Littoral Combat Ship, which, as mentioned, grew in both size and expense.What the FAC/Corvette advocates there fore are proposing is to do the LCS program again, but apply the lessons learned to get it right this time. The benefits perceived are as follows...
With a shallow draft, and small physical size, a FAC sized warship can, in theory, maneuver inshore easily. The physically smaller ship would be cheaper in theory, and because of this and its smaller crew could be more readily risked. For anti-piracy, ASW, patrol or minesweeping, 10 little vessels can be in 9 more places than 1 super-whamodyne Dreadnought. They would not be front line vessels but neither were the destroyer escorts of World War 2.
To be affordable in numbers, any vessel of this size will likely have to be given a rather more austere fit of weapons and sensors....which it is argued, should be fine for peacetime gunboat duties. If a helicopter hangar is not considered a necessity (a dubious notion IMHO) there have been numerous FAC designs from various countries over the years.
Italy in particular produced a family of light attack and patrol craft for export in the 70's and 80s of which the Ecuadoran Esmereldas , the high end of the series, is probably the most well known.
The ones presented here were never built but are included because all three are fairly austere but potentially useful.
They are also basically the same hull and thus show the potential of modular weapon and equipment swaps.
Patrol boat pics via the Secret Projects Board.
The rather precarious helicopter deck in the third design could just as easily be filled with ISO containers full of, relief supplies,some of the minesweeping or ASW modules intended for the LCS or....hospitals.
These are all 25-30 year old designs but still give a ballpark idea of what can be done on 5-600 tons.
The problem with this is that these 5-600 ton designs seem lightly equipped in comparison with their counterparts, particularly their Ecuadoran half sisters. This line of reasoning can lead to diminishing returns.
The temptation to add "stuff" is strong. AAA missiles are nice to have and some sort of antiship punch seems silly not to include. Also, a helicopter hangar is high on the want list. This line of thought can easily bring us to what is probably the most extensively equipped FAC design right now, the French Combattante BR 70 and BR71 (article in French but also see here).
French naval architects at CMN are justifiably proud of this most pimped out of FAC's. For 800 tons, these are impressive (if tight) designs, carrying a helicopter hangar, a 3 inch gun, up to 8 Exocet's, as many as 32 Evolved Seasparrow AAA missles and 21 RAM point defense missiles at over 32 knots. Note that this is an export design though...and as such is likely to stress visible features ( the armament of a frigate) over less obvious ones (habitability, maintenance, redundancy, durability, seaworthieness ect.). Note also that the Marine Nationale is not buying the design. This vessel has little if any space for the sort of cargo one would need for disaster relief and no ASW capability. To be affordable in numbers, any vessel of this size will likely have to be given a rather more austere fit of weapons and sensors....which it is argued, should be fine for peacetime gunboat duties. If a helicopter hangar is not considered a necessity (a dubious notion IMHO) there have been numerous FAC designs from various countries over the years.
Italy in particular produced a family of light attack and patrol craft for export in the 70's and 80s of which the Ecuadoran Esmereldas , the high end of the series, is probably the most well known.
The ones presented here were never built but are included because all three are fairly austere but potentially useful.
The rather precarious helicopter deck in the third design could just as easily be filled with ISO containers full of, relief supplies,some of the minesweeping or ASW modules intended for the LCS or....hospitals.
These are all 25-30 year old designs but still give a ballpark idea of what can be done on 5-600 tons.
The problem with this is that these 5-600 ton designs seem lightly equipped in comparison with their counterparts, particularly their Ecuadoran half sisters. This line of reasoning can lead to diminishing returns.
The temptation to add "stuff" is strong. AAA missiles are nice to have and some sort of antiship punch seems silly not to include. Also, a helicopter hangar is high on the want list. This line of thought can easily bring us to what is probably the most extensively equipped FAC design right now, the French Combattante BR 70 and BR71 (article in French but also see here).
Finally, putting all these systems on a small hull is unlikely to involve any significant cost savings over a frigate sized vessel. The hull is the cheapest part of a warship. The missiles, fire control, C4I, ECM and ECCM systems all cost a lot and getting them to work on a small hull is problematic due both to having antennae mounted close together and the fact that a small hull pitches more. There are certain navies whose needs are met by such a tight design particularly if they use (like Sweden does) armored docking facilities, but for us, especially given the forced financial parsimony we face its probably better to go with a frigate sized vessel perhaps acting as a "leader"to carry helicopters and more elaborate systems.
One option is to modernize the remaining Oliver Hazzard Perry class, perhaps along the lines of the Australian's upgrade. This is potentially troublesome as the Perry's have been run very hard and likely have microcracks and other difficult to repair wear and tear. Also, the Australian upgrade has not been without problems, but at least the lessons have been learned. If an upgrade and refurbishment can be done cheaply then the vessels could have their life extended a decade or so which might get us over the financial hump. Reinstalling the MK 13 launcher would give the ability to 40 or so land attack versions of Harpoon and ESSM would take care of the AAA requirement.
As for new build frigates any such construction must have economies ferociously enforced as was done with the Perry (FFG7) class. Happily, there is actually a US design that is viewed favorably and while it has had some minor problems these have already been found out and are being fixed*. The Coast Guards National Security Cutter is extraordinarily seaworthy, reasonably fast and has very good helicopter facilities. It is lightly armed but there appears to be a space reserved for a VLS or something behind the 57mm gun....Put a VLS nest there. A 16 cell unit would look to be the maximum. That gives you 32 ESSM and 8 ASROC or 64 ESSM. As for sensors, on the high end, fit SPY1-K (an austere export version of AEGIS). Bolt on HARPOON or PENGUIN to taste.
Fit a towed array sonar in the area used for boat handling aft or modify it to a working deck for handling various mission kits and supplying the aforementioned little gunboats.
Fit as hull sonar a development of the same sets on the old FFG7's or refurbished FFG7 sets.
You then have a low end but still capable replacement for the FFG7s with more capability than they ever had.
And they'd be prettier too...even if they were grey.
Another even less expensive option for frigate/corvette sized vessels is to have the Navy involved in the design of the more austere **Offshore Patrol Cutters and, perhaps, subsidize their cost the way they did the old 110' cutters, possibly buying more than 25 of them. This might involve adding some shops and underway replenishment capability to tend smaller cutters and the modern version of the gunboats mentioned above. Pirate fighting as well as many 'short of war' activities are a good fit for the Coast Guard (as has been mentioned here before).
Having the operational replacements for the Perrys current duties manned by the USCG would free their rather large crews for less subsidiary duties and ensure that bare bones Offshore Patrol Vessels not be counted on the navy list as full frigates or destroyers as some congresscritter would be tempted to do.
There are larger systemic issues involving the expense of getting things built in US shipyards that range from the cost-plus contracting system to limited competetion. These are topics for another post, but one potential benefit of the small 5-800 ton vessels is that they might be built in many more shipyards, thereby encouraging some competition and further cost savings.
There is a lot of stuff we can't afford in the near future, but if we avoid letting the best be the enemy of the good we can likely muddle through this period without loosing to much capability.
At least I hope so....
*The 2 main issues that the cutters have had both were rather overblown and I am ashamed to admit that I fell for the hype.As I understand it now, the issues stemmed from the fact that the Coast Guard changed the requirements after construction had started. First they went to a multi crew arangement so the cutter could stay at sea much more often....which consequently increased wear and tear and reduced maintenance time. This meant that the fairly extreme 30 year lifespan might not be achievable with the original design. Subsequent cutters are being built with reinforced scantlings and the lead ship will be refitted in due course. The ship is currently sound structurally...the newer ones will be better. The other issue involves the fact that TEMPEST grade electronics were fitted to a vessel not initially designed for it. Bertolf's comm systems are as good or better than any other cutter save perhaps the ex navy PC's. Subsequent vessels will be built to TEMPEST standards. There is more on that here....money quote TEMPEST is the most overrated problem in modern defense spending history, and it isn't close... and the facts prove it.
** A post from last year on the OPC is here.
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February 21, 2009
Yankee Sailor is Back
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I shall just leave this here....
It just gets better every time I watch it....I must know what this is for.
If you are confused...then your childhood was lacking.
UPDATE: Oh good grief...It's from a pachinko game...My hopes are dashed.
It just gets better every time I watch it....I must know what this is for.
If you are confused...then your childhood was lacking.
UPDATE: Oh good grief...It's from a pachinko game...My hopes are dashed.
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)February 20, 2009
Worry...
While I was focusing on being a good student, any children that I might conceive* were just indentured.
This post is a buzzkill and involves the P-word so I've moved it under the fold and put a sad girl in snow in its place...
more...
This post is a buzzkill and involves the P-word so I've moved it under the fold and put a sad girl in snow in its place...
more...
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Onward if not Upward
more...
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February 15, 2009
Busy Busy Busy
The picture is unrelated to the text....
more...
photoshop by Wonderduck
...which involves utter banality and is therefore tastefully below the fold.more...
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Oh my....
I'll just leave this here....
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February 09, 2009
Obama's First Press Conference (tentative liveblog)
The speech was decent Obama boilerplate.
The first question was pretty decent, but Obamas answer is astonishing.
He is using Japans failed stimulus plan from the early 90s to SELL the stimulus plan.....making the argument that the Japanese didnt spend enough. He also dismisses the argument that FDR did more harm than good with the new deal saying something to the effect that "I thought these arguments were settled"...well they have been, FDR DID damage the economy.
Update: More here. Buy a good book on the subject here.
He is still talking...answering question one.
Question 2:
What is your policy towards Iran.
Answer: Iran is "unhelpful". (duh!)
There is little substance in the answer, but that is not necessarily bad. One does not lay ones cards face up.
Still talking....rambling really. Mainly "We are going to act differently"
Question 3:
Bipartisanship question "Where did you screw up?"....kind of silly question.
Answer : fairly rambling but decent...from a purely partisan perspective.
He does point out that there are substantive ideological differences.
He slams the Republicans on deficits...a fair cop to be sure.
Imperial "I" should be replaced with "We".
His infrastructure speech is still going on...no one is arguing about schools.
Question 4:
What should people do with the stimulus checks...spend or save. (actually a lucid if misdirected question)
Answer: Blames banks.....actually.. Obamas response here is pretty rational so far. If we don't make anything of value...people won't give us money. Of course he is not answering the question that was asked.
Oh good...he is answering the question now...bad habits like subprime mortages must stop in the long term....(well duh).
Question 4: How much more expensive will this get?
Answer: TARP 1 was underegulated. ramble..ramble...stutter...
Oh here we go..basically... 'We won't know till later'.
Question 5: How will we know if this is working?
Answer: 4 million jobs created...unemployment drops. (straightforward and to the point). Capital will thaw....again a straight answer. Housing values stop falling...again straightforward answer...but blinkered as the housing markets are still overvalued. Timetable...next year.
Question 6: 2 part:Will you rescind the "don't photograph the coffins" policy.
Do you have a timetable for Afganistan.
Answer: He dodges the photo question....
Re Afganistan:
He acknowledges the troops efforts in Iraq...finally. He has a laundery list but no timetable. He points out that Afganistan was a safe haven that brought the attacks of 9/11/01. Finally....He has no timetable...good.
Question 7: the NEXT bailout...what strings will be attached?
Answer: Mainly defers to his tax dodger treasury secretary.
Question 8: Garret reffers to a Bidenism I'm not familliar with. "30 percent likelyhood of failure"(!?!?) What do you do if it doesn't work?
Answer. They are trying to cove all bases and deal with the big complicated tasks.
Question 9: Baseball steroid use...
Answer: Sad...the POTUS is understandably caught flatfooted at first by this idiot question. Recovers quickly ....don't take shortcuts....(gee that could apply to the stimulus bill too)
Question 10: Helen Thomas.....Is Pakistan harboring "so called" terrorists. Does any nation in the Middle East have nukes?
Answer: Pretty logical and straight answer...no speculation on nukes. More nuclear disarmament.
Question 11: (Huffington Post has a WH correspondent.!?) Will you prosecute the Bush Administration?
He isn't going to answer as he has not seen the legislation in question. The intel community is painted with a broad brush...unfairly.
Question 12: How will you ever get the Republicans on board?
Answer: His answer seems to be its the DC culture...certainly a defensible point....but he is painting the differences as minor...they surely are not.
He is hitting the Republicans where they are most vulnerable...spending and deficits...but this in essence means that they behaved like Dems for a time.
WOW...he wants to fire bad teachers and use charter schools...we can certainly work with him on that point.
He is painting the economists position as near unanimous....it is not of course.
Post Speech....
I have to agree with the commenter who posted while I was liveblogging...we are screwed...The stimulus bill is a huge mess and likely to do terrible, terrible damage. Obama is from a social and educational background that is unable to acknowledge or even comprehend this. There were bright points to be sure, except for the HuffPo question he was about as straightforward in his answers as one could ask...even if his conclusions are worrisome and his blowing off the Huff Puffy leaves me hope that we will not descend into the politics of blood that the likes of Pelosi seem to want.
My head hurts.
The first question was pretty decent, but Obamas answer is astonishing.
He is using Japans failed stimulus plan from the early 90s to SELL the stimulus plan.....making the argument that the Japanese didnt spend enough. He also dismisses the argument that FDR did more harm than good with the new deal saying something to the effect that "I thought these arguments were settled"...well they have been, FDR DID damage the economy.
Update: More here. Buy a good book on the subject here.
He is still talking...answering question one.
Question 2:
What is your policy towards Iran.
Answer: Iran is "unhelpful". (duh!)
There is little substance in the answer, but that is not necessarily bad. One does not lay ones cards face up.
Still talking....rambling really. Mainly "We are going to act differently"
Question 3:
Bipartisanship question "Where did you screw up?"....kind of silly question.
Answer : fairly rambling but decent...from a purely partisan perspective.
He does point out that there are substantive ideological differences.
He slams the Republicans on deficits...a fair cop to be sure.
Imperial "I" should be replaced with "We".
His infrastructure speech is still going on...no one is arguing about schools.
Question 4:
What should people do with the stimulus checks...spend or save. (actually a lucid if misdirected question)
Answer: Blames banks.....actually.. Obamas response here is pretty rational so far. If we don't make anything of value...people won't give us money. Of course he is not answering the question that was asked.
Oh good...he is answering the question now...bad habits like subprime mortages must stop in the long term....(well duh).
Question 4: How much more expensive will this get?
Answer: TARP 1 was underegulated. ramble..ramble...stutter...
Oh here we go..basically... 'We won't know till later'.
Question 5: How will we know if this is working?
Answer: 4 million jobs created...unemployment drops. (straightforward and to the point). Capital will thaw....again a straight answer. Housing values stop falling...again straightforward answer...but blinkered as the housing markets are still overvalued. Timetable...next year.
Question 6: 2 part:Will you rescind the "don't photograph the coffins" policy.
Do you have a timetable for Afganistan.
Answer: He dodges the photo question....
Re Afganistan:
He acknowledges the troops efforts in Iraq...finally. He has a laundery list but no timetable. He points out that Afganistan was a safe haven that brought the attacks of 9/11/01. Finally....He has no timetable...good.
Question 7: the NEXT bailout...what strings will be attached?
Answer: Mainly defers to his tax dodger treasury secretary.
Question 8: Garret reffers to a Bidenism I'm not familliar with. "30 percent likelyhood of failure"(!?!?) What do you do if it doesn't work?
Answer. They are trying to cove all bases and deal with the big complicated tasks.
Question 9: Baseball steroid use...
Answer: Sad...the POTUS is understandably caught flatfooted at first by this idiot question. Recovers quickly ....don't take shortcuts....(gee that could apply to the stimulus bill too)
Question 10: Helen Thomas.....Is Pakistan harboring "so called" terrorists. Does any nation in the Middle East have nukes?
Answer: Pretty logical and straight answer...no speculation on nukes. More nuclear disarmament.
Question 11: (Huffington Post has a WH correspondent.!?) Will you prosecute the Bush Administration?
He isn't going to answer as he has not seen the legislation in question. The intel community is painted with a broad brush...unfairly.
Question 12: How will you ever get the Republicans on board?
Answer: His answer seems to be its the DC culture...certainly a defensible point....but he is painting the differences as minor...they surely are not.
He is hitting the Republicans where they are most vulnerable...spending and deficits...but this in essence means that they behaved like Dems for a time.
WOW...he wants to fire bad teachers and use charter schools...we can certainly work with him on that point.
He is painting the economists position as near unanimous....it is not of course.
Post Speech....
I have to agree with the commenter who posted while I was liveblogging...we are screwed...The stimulus bill is a huge mess and likely to do terrible, terrible damage. Obama is from a social and educational background that is unable to acknowledge or even comprehend this. There were bright points to be sure, except for the HuffPo question he was about as straightforward in his answers as one could ask...even if his conclusions are worrisome and his blowing off the Huff Puffy leaves me hope that we will not descend into the politics of blood that the likes of Pelosi seem to want.
My head hurts.
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January 31, 2009
Another Job For Debris Section
Oh wait....we don't HAVE a debris section...that's just a cartoon.
More is the pity
Steeljaw Scribe posts on the unsavory fate of Cosmos 1818 an old soviet era nuclear powered satellite that has had what NASA euphemistically refers to as "a fragmentation incident".
It seems that the satellites reactor coolant system either ruptured due to wear and tear, or the satellite was hit by debris, possibly from the infamous Chinese ASAT test....in any event the satellite has excreted a cloud of stuff....most likely hardened coolant (it used a liquid metal coolant) forming a cloud of metallic pebbles of various sizes on various courses.
This satellite is causing some people concern because is a later version of the well known Cosmos 954 that rained radioactive scrap over several hundred miles of Canadian taiga back in 1978. However, the radioactive threat is limited. Actually it is negligible given that the vehicle is not in a decaying orbit.
What is worrisome is the fact that Cosmos 1818 is still up there and is in lots of little hard to track pieces on different vectors. This greatly adds to the navigational hazards of an orbital torus already very full of dangerous debris, and it can only add to the overall threat of collisions from orbital fragments.
If this was due to a debris strike then it is a mini example of the sort of thing that could easily lead to something called the Kessler Syndrome. That is debris hit satellites and other structures..thereby causing more debris...which in turn cause yet more collisions....this leads to a geometric increase in the generation of hyper-velocity projectiles orbiting in random directions until it is simply impractical due to the high likelihood of catastrophic collisions to continue in space. This sort of thing needs more attention...As it is, we are reinforcing the walls to our own prison.
More is the pity
Steeljaw Scribe posts on the unsavory fate of Cosmos 1818 an old soviet era nuclear powered satellite that has had what NASA euphemistically refers to as "a fragmentation incident". It seems that the satellites reactor coolant system either ruptured due to wear and tear, or the satellite was hit by debris, possibly from the infamous Chinese ASAT test....in any event the satellite has excreted a cloud of stuff....most likely hardened coolant (it used a liquid metal coolant) forming a cloud of metallic pebbles of various sizes on various courses.
Image of COSMOS1818 via Encyclopedia Astronautica
What is worrisome is the fact that Cosmos 1818 is still up there and is in lots of little hard to track pieces on different vectors. This greatly adds to the navigational hazards of an orbital torus already very full of dangerous debris, and it can only add to the overall threat of collisions from orbital fragments.
If this was due to a debris strike then it is a mini example of the sort of thing that could easily lead to something called the Kessler Syndrome. That is debris hit satellites and other structures..thereby causing more debris...which in turn cause yet more collisions....this leads to a geometric increase in the generation of hyper-velocity projectiles orbiting in random directions until it is simply impractical due to the high likelihood of catastrophic collisions to continue in space. This sort of thing needs more attention...As it is, we are reinforcing the walls to our own prison.
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January 28, 2009
20 Years Ago
Due to the presence of Christa McAulliffe, the first teacher in space, it was watched with rather greater interest than most launches, and around the country, thousands, if not millions of schoolchildren witnessed the explosion and death of 7 brave men and women.
This is a somber week for space enthusiasts.Yesterday was the anniversary of the deaths of Grissom, White and Chafee in Apollo 1 fire...
.... and 3 days from now will mark the anniversary of the deaths of Columbia's final crew.
17 of our best have risked and lost everything to open up for us a frontier of limitless opportunity. No words I can write will do these people justice.
There are choice words however for the visionless mandarins in congress and the federal bureaucracy whose venal machinations and lack of foresight have ensured that 20 years after the Space Shuttle Challenger we have done next to nothing to get us farther along in opening the frontier these brave people died to explore.
These same malevolent mandarins chose this somber day to virtually bankrupt the nation, and their priorities revealed in the stimulus package show that investments in our future and moving the nation forward rank far below their greed and visions of power.
It is not by accident that I call these people Mandarins, for the story we see unfolding before us has happened before, as I wrote in a previous post of what happened to China...
We are very close to repeating one of the most calamitous mistakes any nation has made. We have leadership that does not like free enterprise and due to today's events, we face a generation or more of severe parsimony on the government side as well....if we are not to completely bankrupt the nation.
There is hope of course.
Like a farmer facing drought we can muddle through this and prosper in the end, but only if we don't eat our seed corn. Technology investment is the seed corn of a modern nation. We would do well to remember that and see to it that future leaders encourage rather than stymie it.
Due to the presence of Christa McAulliffe, the first teacher in space, it was watched with rather greater interest than most launches, and around the country, thousands, if not millions of schoolchildren witnessed the explosion and death of 7 brave men and women.
17 of our best have risked and lost everything to open up for us a frontier of limitless opportunity. No words I can write will do these people justice.
There are choice words however for the visionless mandarins in congress and the federal bureaucracy whose venal machinations and lack of foresight have ensured that 20 years after the Space Shuttle Challenger we have done next to nothing to get us farther along in opening the frontier these brave people died to explore.
These same malevolent mandarins chose this somber day to virtually bankrupt the nation, and their priorities revealed in the stimulus package show that investments in our future and moving the nation forward rank far below their greed and visions of power.
It is not by accident that I call these people Mandarins, for the story we see unfolding before us has happened before, as I wrote in a previous post of what happened to China...
...In possession of the largest merchant fleet in history, the oldest and most advanced civilization on earth decided in the early 1400's to stop exploring and engaging the world. The nation rapidly lost the applicable technologies and did not become a world power again until the 1960's...and was not a serious economic power until the early 90s.
The lead in economics and power the US currently enjoys is infinitesimal in comparison to the lead in technology, knowledge, and both hard and soft power that China enjoyed in the 1400s. Other nations were literally centuries behind, and yet a group of visonless bureaucrats, for reasons of both well intentioned but short sighted idiocy, and the most venal self interest, stymied through legislation (or simply outlawed) not only emerging technologies, but existing ones as well. China was leapfrogged and became the plaything of the nations who had put her inventions to good use. In a last fit of bureaucratic group think, the descendants of those who had brought this about, ended the modernization efforts of the Tang Dynasty solely because they feared that the new ministries and corporations focused on technological development would threaten their power and relevance. The result was 70 years of blood, culminating in the worst mass murder humanity has ever seen.
We are very close to repeating one of the most calamitous mistakes any nation has made. We have leadership that does not like free enterprise and due to today's events, we face a generation or more of severe parsimony on the government side as well....if we are not to completely bankrupt the nation.
There is hope of course.
Like a farmer facing drought we can muddle through this and prosper in the end, but only if we don't eat our seed corn. Technology investment is the seed corn of a modern nation. We would do well to remember that and see to it that future leaders encourage rather than stymie it.
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January 23, 2009
Battlewagon Blogging
CDR Salamander has a weekly feature called Full Bore Friday that deals with maritime heroism of both individuals and units. It's always worth a read. This week he focuses on the battleship USS Washington.
Washington saw more action than any other US Battleship in history and was for a time the only operational allied Battleship in the Pacific theater.
CDR Salamander has fine overview as well as the after action report of the second battle of Savo Island where Washington sent the IJNS Kirishima to the bottom.
Go read the whole thing and add CDR Salamander to your link list.
CDR Salamander has fine overview as well as the after action report of the second battle of Savo Island where Washington sent the IJNS Kirishima to the bottom.
Go read the whole thing and add CDR Salamander to your link list.
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January 20, 2009
Good Luck and Godspeed President Obama!
Fair winds and following seas President Bush.
Fair winds and following seas President Bush.
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January 19, 2009
More Heroes
Much has been written about the recent astounding landing and rescue of flight 1549 and with good reason. It should be remembered that on a smaller scale heroes do there deeds all the time.
Case in point two USN petty officers stationed in Yokuska who recently saved a Japanese citizen who had fallen onto a busy Yamanote line track with the oncoming train already in view.
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Some Quick Thoughts on the Outgoing Administration
My feelings on the outgoing administration are rather mixed to say the least. His actions have left us with a large deficit, a huge government intrusion into the private sector (though in fairness he did try to prevent the financial debacle, and was ignored).and he expanded government more than any president since Johnson.
He also was dealt several terrible hands which he played as well as could be expected. He did not have the benefit of 20/20 hindsight when making tough decisions with no happy solutions available. He recognized that a huge part of Americas vulnerability stemmed from the fact that we had given the impression that we had a glass jaw or would not fight at all. He has put that at least to rest.
I am largely alone amongst conservatives in concluding that Bush was right on the immigration reform idea and path to citizenship for those illegals willing to learn the language and integrate. (Where he failed on immigration IMHO was not there but in border enforcement.)
Bush also did more on the soft power front than any previous president, ranging from fighting AIDS and poverty in Africa to sending Hospital ships and Amphibious ships around the world to provide aid. He gets no credit for this as he is one of the most unfairly maligned Presidents in history.
There is much to disagree with this guy about, but the venomous, insane, fanatical hatred and contempt directed at him by the left is disgraceful, and very nearly as creepy as the near cultlike adoration and worship many of these same people have for his successor.
A mixed bag indeed but his failures can be fixed. If , on the other hand, he had not kept the country as safe as he did these last 8 years the cost would have been far greater than any of his missteps have been.
More thoughts, some rather less qualified in their praise, from the Anchoress, AJ Strata, CDR Salamander, Gay Patriot and....the Dali Lama.
He also was dealt several terrible hands which he played as well as could be expected. He did not have the benefit of 20/20 hindsight when making tough decisions with no happy solutions available. He recognized that a huge part of Americas vulnerability stemmed from the fact that we had given the impression that we had a glass jaw or would not fight at all. He has put that at least to rest.
I am largely alone amongst conservatives in concluding that Bush was right on the immigration reform idea and path to citizenship for those illegals willing to learn the language and integrate. (Where he failed on immigration IMHO was not there but in border enforcement.)
Bush also did more on the soft power front than any previous president, ranging from fighting AIDS and poverty in Africa to sending Hospital ships and Amphibious ships around the world to provide aid. He gets no credit for this as he is one of the most unfairly maligned Presidents in history.
There is much to disagree with this guy about, but the venomous, insane, fanatical hatred and contempt directed at him by the left is disgraceful, and very nearly as creepy as the near cultlike adoration and worship many of these same people have for his successor.
A mixed bag indeed but his failures can be fixed. If , on the other hand, he had not kept the country as safe as he did these last 8 years the cost would have been far greater than any of his missteps have been.
More thoughts, some rather less qualified in their praise, from the Anchoress, AJ Strata, CDR Salamander, Gay Patriot and....the Dali Lama.
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South Korea on Alert
While everyone else is awaiting the inauguration, Information Dissemination points out some troubling developments in the vicinity of the 38th parallel.
In From the Cold has more here.
The Korea Herald reports that there have been Naval engagements...
...though is unclear if this is referring to recent events. There have been several clashes at sea between the two countries over the last few years.
Coming as it does during the potential disruption of the Presidential transition this is an even more worrisome development than it would normally be. This is most likely bluster by the Hermit Kingdom, but it certainly bears watching.
Note that the US and South Korea are still technically at war with the North. The armistice is still in effect but no peace treaty has ever been signed.
The Korea Herald reports that there have been Naval engagements...
Naval ships from the two Koreas have engaged in a number of bloody clashes in the West Sea on North Korean provocation.
...though is unclear if this is referring to recent events. There have been several clashes at sea between the two countries over the last few years.
Coming as it does during the potential disruption of the Presidential transition this is an even more worrisome development than it would normally be. This is most likely bluster by the Hermit Kingdom, but it certainly bears watching.
Note that the US and South Korea are still technically at war with the North. The armistice is still in effect but no peace treaty has ever been signed.
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The Reason for the 3 Day Weekend
In 15 or so hours Barak Obama will be sworn in as the 44th President of this republic. I did not vote for the guy and although he has pleasantly surprised me with some of his appointments as well as many of his statements I am very concerned about the direction he will take this nation.
That being said, he is going to be the president...our president...and it is our job as citizens to give him a chance and to give him support as he faces the crushing set of challenges and dreadful options that our chief executives are confronted with.
There will no doubt be all sorts of things to bang ones head against ones keyboard over and policies that those of us on the right will oppose on principle. However, whatever misgivings many of us may have, the fact that a person of color has achieved the highest elected office is surely a cause for celebration.
Today is more than an extra day off. It is a day to reflect upon how far we have come as a nation. Because today is not only the day before this inaguration. It is the day we celebrate one of the great civil rights leaders of this country.
more...
That being said, he is going to be the president...our president...and it is our job as citizens to give him a chance and to give him support as he faces the crushing set of challenges and dreadful options that our chief executives are confronted with.
There will no doubt be all sorts of things to bang ones head against ones keyboard over and policies that those of us on the right will oppose on principle. However, whatever misgivings many of us may have, the fact that a person of color has achieved the highest elected office is surely a cause for celebration.
Today is more than an extra day off. It is a day to reflect upon how far we have come as a nation. Because today is not only the day before this inaguration. It is the day we celebrate one of the great civil rights leaders of this country.
Dr. King's dream, far too long in coming, has finally been fuffilled.
He was a visionary who anticipated some of the best aspects of America today...but he did not live to see it....Hours after giving this speech he was assasinated.
He was a visionary who anticipated some of the best aspects of America today...but he did not live to see it....Hours after giving this speech he was assasinated.
I was born in 1970, so many of the injustices the civil rights movement was about are hard to comprehend. I encounter bigots of various flavors from time to time, but I frankly can't get my head around such absurd and alien
notions as segregated water fountains, toilets, and restaurants or anti miscegenation
laws...but for over a hundred fifty years, they were the reality. Dr.
King stood up to that awful reality, and he did so peacefully and with dignity.
Some perspective on that time can be gleaned from one of the more important documents of our nation, The Letter From a Birmingham Jail, which is quoted in its entirety below the fold.....
Some perspective on that time can be gleaned from one of the more important documents of our nation, The Letter From a Birmingham Jail, which is quoted in its entirety below the fold.....
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