September 01, 2020
Meanwhile, in Mozambique
The Islamic State (remember them?) has seized the Mozambiquean port of Mocimboa da Praia. This is significant for three reasons:
1: This is a major achievement for a defeated organization. (and I'm not being sarcastic, they were thoroughly trounced in Syria).
2: It is FAR outside the usual stomping grounds of The Islamic State and its affiliated groups. (West Africa, The Levant, North Africa, Afganistan and neighboring countries, and the Philippines)
3: The city in question is a particularly strategic node, being a deepwater port and also very close to natural gas fields.
4: The actual defeat of the army and seizure of the town took place 19 days ago. The Jihadists have HELD the city and are moving on the nearby gas fields.
The Islamic State had, at its height, expanded into or incorporated into itself, many similarly motivated organizations worldwide from Boko Haram to the Sultanate of Sulu. Many of these federal arrangements seem to have actually survived the collapse in Syria and to have given the organization redundancy and staying power. Moreover the Islamic State has a history of growing and moving very quickly. It is, after all a revolutionary religious movement and is quite charismatic in ideology to a certain segment of Dar al islam. The fact that they are this organized has implications going forward. While the IS is of little apparent direct threat, particularly at the ass end of the planet, they are an active and enthusiastic sponsor of terrorism. The organization has a history of financing themselves via creative smuggling of petrochemicals and have proved adept at bypassing blockades. If they secure the gas fields they may be able to turn that into financing to purchase weapons and support terrorists in the U.S., Europe and other places. The Islamic State and its confederated "Caliphates" are known to have close ties with certain Latin American drug cartels including technical assistance. The group can conceivably use their smuggling infrastructure to insert agents, and or weapons into the U.S., perhaps to contribute to our current domestic urban chaos. A safe haven for The Islamic State allowing them time to build infrastructure has other implications as well, though mainly in the longer term.
Sallying forth to slay dragons in some awful land war in Africa is a dubious and daunting prospect with no political support here. It also would take attention off the primary strategic goal of deterring China. Certainly the locals need to be given ample time to take care of the situation themselves, but this is a situation that should be watched carefully.
For one thing 1500 Civilians are dead and 250,000 are displaced. The last time The I.S. did this it caused a humanitarian crisis that had notable effects in Europe, Mozambique is more isolated, but the effect on such countries as Botswana, and South Africa, (the former one of the few stable Sub-Saharan states, the latter with its own problems) could be quite disruptive.
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August 30, 2020
The Difference
...between being red-pilled and black-pilled is wether one gives into despair.
Don't give in to despair.
Don't fly off half cocked.
Don't assume that the first reports have all context.
Be careful.
Stay safe.
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Oh Great. Another Isekai Show....wait....
Well, that's different.
It'll take longer to explain than it will to let you watch the first episode on You Tube. The rest are on Crunchyroll.
I guess someone saw Thermae Romae and decided to make a...weird, claymation, Greek version. I'm not sure it's good, but it made me laugh.
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August 27, 2020
Oh Dear Lord
It's hitting with 150 mile per hour winds, a 20 foot storm surge.
This excerpt from the NOAA Public Advisory is sobering.
Key Messages:
1. Unsurvivable storm surge with large and destructive waves will cause catastrophic damage from Sea Rim State Park, Texas, to Intracoastal City, Louisiana, including Calcasieu and Sabine Lakes.
This surge could penetrate up to 40 miles inland from the immediate coastline, and flood waters will not fully recede for several days after the storm.
2. Hurricane-force winds are expected tonight in portions of the hurricane warning area, with catastrophic wind damage expected where Laura's eyewall moves onshore. Hurricane-force winds and widespread damaging wind gusts will spread well inland into portions of extreme eastern Texas and western Louisiana early Thursday.
3. Widespread flash flooding along small streams, urban areas, and roadways is expected to begin overnight tonight into Thursday from far eastern Texas into Louisiana and Arkansas. This will also lead to minor to moderate freshwater river flooding. The heavy rainfall
threat and flash and urban flooding potential will spread
northeastward into the middle-Mississippi, lower Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys Friday night and Saturday.
I don't recall ever seeing the word "unsurvivable" in a forecast before.
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August 25, 2020
2020 Comes to Beaumont
Actually, I'm much more concerned about the inland path of this storm as it's following a path very similar to Camille. This is reportedly a wet storm and the potential for unpleasantness in Appalachia due to orographic precipitation is high.
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August 24, 2020
Calcium Phosphate, Lead, Brass, Bismuth, Batteries, Boxes, and Banking
Baleful banality bides below.
For those uninterested in such matters, here is Tsana in the rain...by Lansane. Support his work on Fanbox.
more...
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August 22, 2020
Two in as Many Days.. 2020 is Jumping the Sharks.....
...and the alligators, and the water moccasins which will probably be swimming in the streets of New Orleans next week. Steer clear of NOLA Tuesday and Wednesday.
...and the alligators, and the water moccasins which will probably be swimming in the streets of New Orleans next week. Steer clear of NOLA Tuesday and Wednesday.
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When You've Lost The Moral High Ground to 4Chan, It's Time to Reassess Your Premises
In general though, those that have never do.
...and that's all we're gonna say about "Cuties".
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August 16, 2020
Entertainment Bleg
The Last of Us 2 was dreadful.
The FF7 Remake was decent if tedious until the very ending when jumped the shark, lassoed it and rode it into a maelstrom of stupid.
I just watched the premiere of Star Trek Lower Decks.
Are there any good shows?
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The Latest Episode of 2020 Continues To Subvert Expectations
The National Weather Service has issued its first ever warning for fire tornadoes.
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August 15, 2020
First world Problems That May Presage Larger Issues
Today I ran some errands and took the opportunity to stop at a hot dog joint that has turned itself into a drive-in due to COVID. I actually ordered a cheeseburger, as this is easier to eat on the road, and the burgers at the place are excellent.
Except this wasn't. It was not terrible but something was...off. It took a minute but I figured out what the issue was. The cheeseburger was actually a cheesewhiz burger.
Such supply chain disruptions are only going to get worse are only going to get worse after the recent derecho wiped out 10 million acres of cropland. That storm may be far more consequential than most hurricanes, though it's getting diffident coverage, perhaps because most of those affected were not in 'relevant' zip codes. However, the knock-on effects need to be looked at. A lot of that grain goes to animal feed. Beef is already pricy, because of disruptions due to COVID, but, for instance, with regard to chicken farming the next brood of chicks may not have enough grain in the pipeline.
In addition to this oddball storm, there is believed to be a La Nina event developing, those tend to have deleterious effects on the grain crops of the U.S., as well as the big South American grain producers like Argentina and Paraguay.
At this point we do not recommend taking a long position in grains until after the US harvest. It is possible that a developing La Nina could mean higher grain prices later in 2020 or 2021 if South American grain production is hurt.
Furthermore, a good portion of this years crop has actually been promised to the Chinese, who, with their own food security issues, are depending on the large shipments of grain they signed the trade deal in exchange for.
It's unclear how big an issue the lost crops are going to be in the long run. The U.S. has a lot of reserve capacity after all. However the recent supply chain disruptions may be a compounding factor, and in any event have demonstrated that our food supply chain is more vulnerable to disruptions due to non-intuitive domino effects.
Stock up on food. This is likely to be a rough winter.
Or this all could just be a hysterical overreaction to a bad customer service experience.
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August 14, 2020
Nope. Didn't See THIS Coming.
France has deployed fighters, a Helicopter Carrier and a frigate to Cyprus in order to deter a feared Turkish invasion of Greece.
Turkey sent an oil exploration vessel into Greek territorial waters with a strong naval escort. The Greeks then sent a naval force to eject the trespassers whereupon hijinks ensued...exactly what sort of hijinks is unclear but it involved either an accidental collision or deliberate ramming between a Greek and a Turkish warship.
There's been weirdness going on on the Graeco-Turkish border for some time (not counting the fact that Greece fought many wars with Turkey from its independence 202 years ago to after WW1). As recently as May, Turkey invaded a 1.6 hectare piece of Greek marsh (yes, 4 acres). This was ostensibly in response to the meandering of the Evros river, which is on the border, but it raised tensions. The recent naval confrontations are not reducing those tensions, and given Turkish President Ergodan's expansionist rhetoric, the French have just put their foot down. This is a small force, little more than a tripwire, but it is good to see that the French at least are taking this situation seriously.
This is getting coverage, but it's very much back page coverage. I suppose that's to be expected. I mean really, who ever heard of some damned fool thing in the Balkans ever amounting to anything newsworthy?
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August 13, 2020
Amazon's Algorithms
....occasionally do make me smile.
BWAAAAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
BWAAAAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! I guess I'm just not their target audience any more.
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Andre Over At Midnight's Edge Simply Nails This Video.
Andre's a Norwegian. They know something about the habits of Quislings, and those who stand up to them.
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Oh No
Oh no no no no.
The issue of China's food security is a problem that's been simmering for some time. However, as we pointed out back in January, "What we can be reasonably confident of is that the Chinese Communist Party, being a totalitarian state, is going to try to cover-up or minimize the situation to the maximum extent possible and even rather beyond credulity."
As we observed at that time with Corona-Chan, the fact that this grave blunder was being acknowledged and the public was not only being informed but enlisted to help deal with an issue, is a leading indicator that the Chinese government is scared of said issue. That proved a prescient observation regarding the beer-bug. This is why Xi's exortation to not waste food is so concerning.
On the face of it, one's typical reaction to troubles for a brutal, totalitarian, genocidal state might seem to fall somewhere between, "So!? We've got other problems....mostly Chicom problems.", and "feel good story of the day".
However it should be remembered that the Politburo is not going to miss a meal. Over a billion people will suffer and many of them will die horrifically if this famine comes to pass. But there is more to ponder than that.
'Fear not the angry man nearly so much as the hungry man.'
That applies to people mobs and nations.The politburo will do anything stay in charge and protect itself, and will go to insane lengths to alleviate, or at least distract from its people's suffering. China is a nuclear power...in possession of most of our manufacturing capacity. A short sharp war to distract from famine of capture some crops might seem like a good idea to scared officials holding angry mobs at bay.
As Seneca said: "A hungry people listens not to reason, nor cares for justice, nor is bent by any prayers, or pleas for mercy."
Keep an eye on this situation. It may ultimately be the most consequential of this years curveballs. And keep a month of two's worth of food in your home at all times.
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August 07, 2020
Meanwhile On Bitchute
Nerdette finally snaps.
Watch on Bitchute
Nerdette's Newstand has been fairly solid in her reporting, but she's hardly a firebrand and I did not expect this.
The scary part of this video is the video she tacks onto the end. I think it is a Jon Birch film. But that's not why it's scary. It's scary because things have gone so very pear shaped that the Birchers were actually right and laid out everything that's happened.
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August 06, 2020
Recovery Proceeds Apace
Power was back on fairly soon after the storm and internet is no longer twitchy.
Isaias was a remarkably energetic event in contrast to what was expected.
Hampton Roads was on the eastern side of the thing as it ran north and its 20 to 35 mph forward speed was added to a wind speed of 60-70 mph when it arrived here. Add in a few tornadoes and the intense rain and the storm was able to make its passage known.
Pic via WAVY
I do have a bit of advice for Americans who live in disaster prone areas. The day to order your 95-150 pound generators is not right after the storm comes and cuts your power. Also try to not order those on the same day that 30,000 other people did. Your UPS driver will thank you and your order won't risk being delayed by choking the system with huge boxes that fill up all the trucks.
Note that my center did get all the packages out without rolling over or delaying anything, but it was a near run thing and, anyway, it's the thought that counts.
Just saying.
I'm going to ice my back now.
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August 03, 2020
Oh.
I'd heard he'd tweeted this set of words in this order, So I put on my hazmat suit and went to Twitter to check.
Sure enough.....
So it's not that they see 1984 as a 'how to' manual instead of a cautionary tale, it's that the reference is unknown to them.
Matt Taibbi is only 3 months younger than me, so it's not a generational thing.
Most people my age would assume 2+2=5 was a reference to Orwell (I think they would). In fairness however, this was not, strictly speaking a 1984 reference, at least not intentionally, but the actual reference is a stygian cesspit of foetidly, anfractous, terrifying stupidity that I'll not touch for now.
But 1984 wasn't even on his radar apparently.
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Whelp
Tomorrow will be moist.
This thing has stayed on track for almost a week. It's moved slightly west even. That is really unusual.
It's not a particularly bad storm, but it is looking to be rather wet, so while I'm not terribly concerned I expect problems with flooding. I'm actually more concerned about people in the Acela Corridor, Which this storm is straddling. It's going through areas with people who aren't familiar with how much flooding these things can cause.
Be safe everybody.
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In Today's Thrilling Episode of "2020"
Meanwhile, Scientists in Denmark have discovered an ancient ancestor to the bubonic plague that;
"Truly this is an example of a 2020 headline, but I'm even less concerned about this than the murder hornets."
Scientists in Japan have revived 100 million year old bacteria from Mesozoic mud deep the beneath the seafloor.
"Wait. I've...seen this movie."
1: was apparently not spread by fleas and...
2: is believed to have wiped out much of neolithic civilization in what may have been the first pandemic.
and
3: they've procured viable cultures from the teeth of victims, because, really, what could POSSIBLY go wrong?
"Are you frickking kidding me!?"
On the bright side, it appears that no one from the Wuhan Institute of Virology was involved in any way.
Art is by 23 who is currently pushing his doujin, titled, I think, "Battling Nazi Monsters"
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