January 20, 2021
Posted by: cxt217 at Wed Jan 20 19:47:39 2021 (4i7w0)
I still think Joe will go down first, so they can unlock the achievements.
Posted by: J Greely at Thu Jan 21 00:20:40 2021 (ZlYZd)
If even a fraction of what I think is possible occurs, the resulting party civil war might dwarf anything that the GOP is going through.
Posted by: cxt217 at Thu Jan 21 00:45:03 2021 (4i7w0)
Posted by: The Brickmuppet at Thu Jan 21 05:45:16 2021 (5iiQK)
1) The Clintons want to be in the White House again, but a Kamala administration would not be a problem because Bill and Hillary have time to groom Chelsea for her run. Yes, I know it sounds dumb, but look at how politics have shaped up in the last 30 years and then consider that DC is 100 square miles surrounded by reality. They could have afford to have Joe and Kamala lose last November. They could afford to wait a Joe/Kamala administration. They can afford to wait;
2) The Obamas want Michelle to be president. That goal takes a major hit if Kamala becomes president under any circumstances. Michelle will not have nearly the amount of star power if she is trying to follow Kamala, than if it was nearly anything else. They probably agreed to Kamala as the veep because at the time, they were expecting Joe to lose and taking Kamala down would have taken down a potential rival. As it is right now, they do not want to see Kamala become the next president because that would cost star power AND time, which is not necessarily on their side;
3) Kamala herself draws most of her current power in the party from the fact she is the veep. Outside of that, she has never been able to sustain double digit support in her own party. The only way her aspirations for the top job will succeed is if she has the power of incumbency in her favor. Without it, she is vulnerable to be primaried by people with far less favorable odds at the White House. Unfortunately, everyone in the party knows this, which means they are definitely going to plan with that in mind;
4) Joe himself can not be written out. We may laugh or cry about his mental state, but whatever else, he has a keen survival instinct. He is not going to go down in a fight and whatever other weakness, his ability (When lucid.) for retail politics is not to be under-estimated. Even if it means jettison everything else (Which would lead to letting whoever the other party will nominate in 2024 to win.), he is not going to go quietly from the White House because someone in a back room said he should.
Note I expect everything and anything to happen, up to and including the possibility of a depressed trajectory shot at DC, so everything might and probably will be wrong. But depending on how the internal struggles will go will also decide on whether Joe or Kamala will go first.
Posted by: cxt217 at Thu Jan 21 22:21:37 2021 (4i7w0)
Apparently he threatened to call off their wedding and honeymoon because he (allegedly) had a head cold, then (miraculously) recovered totally and had no signs of a head cold. Michelle will never be president if he has anything to sabotage about it.
Posted by: Suburbanbanshee at Fri Jan 22 22:32:01 2021 (sF8WE)
It is anecdotal but Secret Service agents assigned to their protective details have recalled that she was always pressing him to be more aggressive and confrontational in politics, especially during the 2012 campaign. So whatever reservations Barack has, well, I doubt he is the more aggressive one of the pair.
Also, the Obama faction definitely wants to keep control of the Democrat party. That is not going to work if anyone else outside their group gets to be president.
Posted by: cxt217 at Sat Jan 23 00:19:52 2021 (4i7w0)
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