January 20, 2021

Honestly, I Really Thought He Would Last a Bit Longer in Office

Posted by: The Brickmuppet at 06:42 PM | Comments (7) | Add Comment
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1 Actually, I am going against the grain and say that the odds are that Kamala will get knifed in the back first in the internal wars before Joe does.

Posted by: cxt217 at Wed Jan 20 19:47:39 2021 (4i7w0)

2 Whichever of them gets kicked out first, it will be interesting to see who the next VP is. They can't pick someone from the Senate without at least briefly losing their majority, and the House is nearly as risky.

I still think Joe will go down first, so they can unlock the achievements.


Posted by: J Greely at Thu Jan 21 00:20:40 2021 (ZlYZd)

3 I have a hypothesis on why I believe Kamala is likely to go down first, followed by Joe (Yes, I am thinking it is possible that both of them get goned in the internal fights to follow.), and the person(s) that follow will depend entirely on which faction manage to carry out their plan.

If even a fraction of what I think is possible occurs, the resulting party civil war might dwarf anything that the GOP is going through.

Posted by: cxt217 at Thu Jan 21 00:45:03 2021 (4i7w0)

4 We eagerly await a disquisition on your hypothesis. 

Posted by: The Brickmuppet at Thu Jan 21 05:45:16 2021 (5iiQK)

5 The very short version $.02 version is that Kamala is, even more than Joe, a pawn in the power struggle by the factions vying for control of the Democrats.  From accounts, she was was pushed as veep by the Clinton faction.  However, even disregarding Joe, the administration is stacked with Obama faction loyalists.  Since even Democrats are pretty sure that Joe will not last a full term, the the situation leads to the following:

1) The Clintons want to be in the White House again, but a Kamala administration would not be a problem because Bill and Hillary have time to groom Chelsea for her run.  Yes, I know it sounds dumb, but look at how politics have shaped up in the last 30 years and then consider that DC is 100 square miles surrounded by reality.  They could have afford to have Joe and Kamala lose last November.  They could afford to wait a Joe/Kamala administration.  They can afford to wait;

2) The Obamas want Michelle to be president.  That goal takes a major hit if Kamala becomes president under any circumstances.  Michelle will not have nearly the amount of star power if she is trying to follow Kamala, than if it was nearly anything else.  They probably agreed to Kamala as the veep because at the time, they were expecting Joe to lose and taking Kamala down would have taken down a potential rival.  As it is right now, they do not want to see Kamala become the next president because that would cost star power AND time, which is not necessarily on their side;

3) Kamala herself draws most of her current power in the party from the fact she is the veep.  Outside of that, she has never been able to sustain double digit support in her own party.  The only way her aspirations for the top job will succeed is if she has the power of incumbency in her favor.  Without it, she is vulnerable to be primaried by people with far less favorable odds at the White House.  Unfortunately, everyone in the party knows this, which means they are definitely going to plan with that in mind;

4) Joe himself can not be written out.  We may laugh or cry about his mental state, but whatever else, he has a keen survival instinct.  He is not going to go down in a fight and whatever other weakness, his ability (When lucid.) for retail politics is not to be under-estimated.  Even if it means jettison everything else (Which would lead to letting whoever the other party will nominate in 2024 to win.), he is not going to go quietly from the White House because someone in a back room said he should.

Note I expect everything and anything to happen, up to and including the possibility of a depressed trajectory shot at DC, so everything might and probably will be wrong.  But depending on how the internal struggles will go will also decide on whether Joe or Kamala will go first.

Posted by: cxt217 at Thu Jan 21 22:21:37 2021 (4i7w0)

6 I don't think Obama wants Michelle to be president, even though it would be to his advantage. Nope, he theoretically wanted it; but when Michelle's book came out, he did his best to sink it and whine about it. 
Apparently he threatened to call off their wedding and honeymoon because he (allegedly) had a head cold, then (miraculously) recovered totally and had no signs of a head cold. Michelle will never be president if he has anything to sabotage about it. 

Posted by: Suburbanbanshee at Fri Jan 22 22:32:01 2021 (sF8WE)

7 He might not want it, but she definitely does.  Michelle is probably as ambitious as Hillary is, but she is much better at keeping herself from being grating.

It is anecdotal but Secret Service agents assigned to their protective details have recalled that she was always pressing him to be more aggressive and confrontational in politics, especially during the 2012 campaign.  So whatever reservations Barack has, well, I doubt he is the more aggressive one of the pair.

Also, the Obama faction definitely wants to keep control of the Democrat party.  That is not going to work if anyone else outside their group gets to be president.

Posted by: cxt217 at Sat Jan 23 00:19:52 2021 (4i7w0)

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