On the Current Unpleasantness in South Asia
Due to numerous obligations as well as exhaustion in the aftermath of my surgeries and my return to a job that 3 months of bedrest has not prepared me for, I've been rather silent on the intervention in Iran.
This is because, in addition to time and endurance deficits on my part, that prevent me from doing enough research to feel comfortable opining on the matter, the issue is rather more complex than seems to be appreciated by the majority of the commentariat.
Broadly, I am supportive of this action, though I am less sanguine about the likely outcome than I was in the first week.
Iran is a far greater threat to the US. and the world than seems to be appreciated. Governed by a fanatical, millennialist cult that seeks to bring about an apocalypse, in order to bring about the Islamic version of the rapture, the actual facts of the governing bodies' ideology comports so closely to many slanders against Protestants, that it may explain why so many do not take it seriously. It is however the ideology of "Twelverism" or "Mahdism" the cult that runs Iran now.
Full disclosure:
Islamic eschatology, especially Shia eschatology is waay outside my bailiwick, so I am hesitant to discuss this at length.
However, my understanding is that Twelverism is one of a few branches of Islam that reacted to the collapse of the Arab Empire (which was in many ways the most powerful and advanced civilization to that point in human history) by concluding that the empire had been too open minded, and free, and not sufficiently strict in their adherence to the Hadiths...thus collapsing from their own decadence rather than a combination of those Damn Mongols, Rabies, Black Death, climate induced famine and civil unrest.
This school of thought has persisted and spawned several times especially in the modern era since the Europeans, rather leapfrogged their Arab tormentors, both technologically and scientifically, closing, and then widening in reverse what had been an impossible gap before the fall of the Arab Empire.
The people who run the government of Iran, and adhere to its theology are nasty, dangerous, and fanatical. They run a repressive totalitarian state and are hell bent on supplying fanatics who share their ideology with aid , intelligence, and weapons. They see all those not comporting to their beliefs as affronts to reality that must be converted or killed.
Whatever one might think about the policies of Israel, the attack of October 7th was an atrocity that no civilized polity can abide. Whatever grievance one might have, mass rapes and wanton deliberate, sadistic slaughter of civilians is not a viable response. This is very different from a stray bomb, shell, or bullet, that hits an innocent. The results might be similar but those results were unintended. In fact, many of these instances, stemmed from the terrorists setting up military facilities in close proximity to their own civilians in order to cynically pump up collateral damage amongst their own people for propaganda gain. This reflection upon the recent past is not a distraction, or digression. Hamas, and Hezbollah are Iranian proxies, and indicative of the type of people this regime supports.
In contrast: The Iranian people are part of one of the oldest and most civilized polities on the planet. Held hostage by their murderous government, they have shown great courage in standing up to the IRGC (which amongst its many odious talents acts as a secret police).
In stark contrast to the governance of the Mullahs, the Iranian government under the Shah and his predecessors has been one of the most peaceful in human history, not fighting any wars from the 1700s untill the 1940s aside from fighting pirates, or responding to border incursions .
If the Mullahs were not a major force in the country, we would not care if Iran had nuclear weapons.
But the mullahs yet breathe and the barbaric depredations of their Palestinian proxies show what circumspection and good behavior can be expected if they ever get a bit of canned sun.
The recent uprisings by Iranian students discussed in this rather dated piece gave some hope that the despotic regime, might be ripe for toppling. if only support was given.
At the same time, Iran admitted, nay, boasted during negotiations that they already have enough enriched (60%) Uranium for 11 fission bombs. 60% EU is going to admittedly result in a very big and unwieldy bomb, but I not comforted very much by that.
Iran has a space program, so it is only a matter of time before they will miniaturize a bomb to fit on one of their satellite launchers. At that point they can hit any target on earth.
So yes. I think that the decision to attack Iran was defensible and likely the correct decision given the intel at the time. This does not seem to be a situation of an open ended war of choice built upon lies and kickbacks by defense contractors as the invasion of Iraq was.
I supported that war when it happened. I believed the institutions and statements by our government at the time. One reason I believed the fiends who opened that abattoir is that I recognized that Iran was then, as it is now, a terrible threat. However, regards the idea that Iraq had WMDs, or that Iran's myriad threats rather than Raytheon's quarterly earnings were a concern to those who made those decisions, well, I was wrong. It was the biggest foreign policy mistake the U.S. has made in a century.
To the extent my naive online typing on the matter persuaded anyone at the time to enlist...I will never wash that blood from my hands.
So I do not take this position lightly.
I think Trump was correct to do what he did, given what was known at the time. The uprising in Iran indicated a very real possibility that the regime could be toppled if it were decapitated and the citizenry given some cover.
However:
I think that the build up took too long.
The logistics necessitated a positioning of assets that required a long enough lead time that the monsters who ran the country were able to kill most of the opposition leaders.
At least that is my assessment at the moment, given that all the Open Source Intel I've had time to peruse indicates that the Iranian people have not stepped up. The regime, gutted as it is, with its fleet at the bottom of the ocean and its air force swept from the skies still maintains a Gestapo that clings to power through terror.
This does not mean that this expenditure of blood and treasure will have availed us nothing. The gutting of Iran's military capability is a welcome development, and one can sincerely hope that we have knocked out their nuclear program for some years.
I actually think that Trump has made the world a safer place, at least for a time. However the resulting economic effects, particularly the current oil shock will likely have very bad results electorally.
I think this action was terrible, as war always is, but I think that it was ultimately the right thing to do. Whether it passes a cost benefit analysis will be unclear for some time.
That will come to pass only after we see what damage this decision will have done, long term, to the economy, and the politics of the U.S.
as well as how thoroughly the Iranian nuclear program has been hobbled.
So: My Monitor Died
I've been scrambling to get that replaced, and hooked up...and talking to my computer in such a fashion that I can stream. I did, but its stand is....it concerns me.
There was also and update of OBS (my streaming software) which reset my settings.
So After a ton of running around I FINALLY came back to the blog and with great trepidation dared to look at the Disquisition by Erik von Kuehnelt-Leddihn-With-An-Anime-Avatar on Frieren. Only to be completely perplexed. I was pleased at the lack of death threats...but confused.
THEN I realized that they were comments on this livestream, of the Artemis 2 launch.
Well:
Obviously somebody watches my streams.
While we are on the subject:
This is the Tentative Stream Schedule through the 17th of April.
There are a few down days as there is stuff both mundane and stream related that must get done and there are also some upcoming events like Genshin 6.5, ZZZ 2.7/2, and most notably, the farthest humans have ever been from Earth! Things that I will most certainly be streaming. Curiously, aside from those 3 items, the schedule is subject to change due to WEATHER of all things, since some of the mundanity involves yard work.
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Yeah, I haven't set up a Twitch account yet, I probably should. (I basically don't disagree on the Frieren video's point, but I tediously prefer my own formulations.) I'm more of a SpaceX enthusiast, but I enjoyed watching the Artemis II launch.
Posted by: PatBuckman at Fri Apr 3 18:14:01 2026 (s6adZ)
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GPS in space, it maybe depends. Would definitely be a receiver design problem, if you can get the signal strength. I'm at the 'solves for four distances using a kalman filter' level of understanding, and I am pretty sure it depends on distances and speeds. (I don't actually know what a Kalman filter is yet.)
Posted by: PatBuckman at Wed Apr 1 17:53:49 2026 (s6adZ)
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and I think these vehicles have been having helium leak issues at times, and there was some sensor malfunction discussions early on before they decided to go ahead with launch. Too soon to say anything.
Posted by: PatBuckman at Wed Apr 1 18:00:42 2026 (s6adZ)
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I think we might just be dealing with some very cautious people wanting to log every irregularity in the appropriate parts of the official record.
Posted by: PatBuckman at Wed Apr 1 18:03:40 2026 (s6adZ)
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Engine hasn't been burning the full time, those are CGI fuel rocket exhaust plumes I think.
Posted by: PatBuckman at Wed Apr 1 18:04:52 2026 (s6adZ)
Nick Frietas frequently leans a bit more into culture war stuff than I'd like, but he is a VERY smart guy. His military and legislative experience is both broad and deep, and he has a better understanding of the applicability of historical precedents than a lot of folks. I put a lot of stock in his analysis.
Malcom and Simone Collins are best known as pro-natalist influencers, but are more broadly a couple of epically crazy people who are rumored, by less epically crazy people to be vampires...no really.
I suspect that they are not.
They are highly autistic and rather more sanguine than I am about the likelihood of very good outcomes from A.G.I. They are also extremely smart, well informed, and entertaining. Their more worrisome, materialistic, almost Huxleyan views (which do not come out in this video) seems to be a product of their neurodivergence rather than malevolence and their analysis is quite analytical and thought provoking. I'm disturbed to agree with them more often than I don't and the worst people in the world seem to hate them, so at least give them a listen.
I got a call after Tuesday's stream that Mom was in the E.R. with a suspected heart attack. I went to work, asked to be off or at least be let go early. After about 4 seconds of contemplation, they gave me the week off.
I drove 300 miles Visited Mom in the E.R., she seemed better. Fun fact: Zolpidem has side effects that include, dizziness, and hallucinations, if taken with certain arthritis medications these can also include angina, shortness of breath, perceived tightness in the chest, disorientation, and extreme weakness. Mom got put through EVERY test, but is home now (with a new set of prescriptions) and doing fine. I got in last night after having been up for 41 hours and went to bed. I just woke up....There may be some further schedule adjustments.
Spoiler Alert:
There have been some further schedule adjustments.
The schedule has been tweaked and extended to 9 days out just to annoy those dastardly Hiatus Ninjas!
(All times EDT)
The Hiatus Ninjas MUST NOT WIN! Do your part to help the channel thwart these fiends by checking in at https://www.twitch.tv/brickmuppet
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Razorfist seems quite salty about this. I'd never heard the accusation before so I don't really have anything to say about it except I prefer B5 to DS9.
Posted by: Rick C at Thu Mar 19 18:49:23 2026 (1zWbY)
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I like what I remember of DS9, but bounced off B5 my first attempt.
I basically don't care about the IP/fandom wars at this point, but will be annoyed if the new Star Gate is below expectations.
I'm pretty much asking whether some specific fanfic is good, and otherwise ignoring the claims by official IP holders about the IP. Internet fights between alleged fans about whose oshi is better are may hard to sort from water armies.
DS9 and B5, each satisfy personal taste, and stand on their own, independently of what other people on the internet think.
I'm very likely to give B5 another try one of these days.
Posted by: PatBuckman at Sun Mar 22 17:29:17 2026 (s6adZ)
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I liked DS9, too, I just thought B5 was better.
I'm currently working my way through Amazon's adaptation of The Expanse, which is mostly pretty good, and has much better space battles than Star Trek-style stuff.
Posted by: Rick C at Mon Mar 23 07:09:31 2026 (1zWbY)
Stop by, Stay "Hi!" Tomorrow Night at 6pm EDT, 10pm UTC And watch me try to learn how to stream again over at https://www.twitch.tv/brickmuppet.
There is not actually going to be a hiatus between March 20 and April 1, it's just not scheduled beyond next week, except for the certainty that we WILL be covering the Artemis 2 launch, which will be the first manned circumlunar flight since 1972!
So. While I was away, did anything happen?
Oh dear.
The murderous, totalitarian regime that is, in addition to oppressing their citizenry to the tune of killing over 30,000 of that same citizenry, has unlocked the achievement worlds largest sponsor of terrorism and advocates for the annihilation of all Jews on the planet, the destruction of the United States...has over the last week, found themselves in a spot of bother.
Possibly the stupidest outrage is that surrounding the sinking of the Iranian WARSHIP by a U.S. submarine. The warship, of a country, we are at war with was, being a warship, a legitimate military target, and was sunk (as is good and proper). It now turns out that warship of the murderous, totalitarian, theocratic nation was WARNED: TWICE which is not something that a submarine is required to do when attacking an antisubmarine escort.
Lawrence Pearson has a good overview of recent events, here.
There is cause for concern as Iran has a lot of terrorists embedded around the world. Recent events indicate that this a real threat....one that will not be averted until this regime is taken down.
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An interesting question is exactly what time pressures did Trump perceive for accelerating the schedule. Lots of possibilities. Lots that may become clear on waiting.
Posted by: PatBuckman at Tue Mar 10 19:52:58 2026 (rcPLc)
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In the same article: "The 30,000 figure is also far beyond tallies being compiled by activists methodically assigning names to the dead" but we'll run with it anyway because why not and who's going to object?
Posted by: Pete Zaitcev at Sat Mar 14 17:50:23 2026 (LZ7Bg)
A Matter of Extreme Importance That I Am Magnificently Unqualified to Opine On
This notion has been percolating for a few months. What I initially thought was silly clickbait looks more and more like it might be a real phenomenon.
This video gives a very good overview of the problem, which is akin to a king being surrounded by sycophantic courtiers...but, potentially applied to vast swaths of the general population.
(Thanks to OxArya for pointing this out in someone's Discord chat)
My concerns over the issue at hand were, as is my wont, somewhat off the mark, as those concerns really began to take hold when Google's Gemini generated racially diverse Nazis. While this was as amusing as it was offensive, it seems to have been a reflection of the mindset of the programmers. Many of these people, steeped in the oiokiphobic fever swamps of coastal Californian thought are reflexively, ideologically, leftist. I do nor mean liberal, I mean a tremendous number of these people are totalitarian in mindset and Jacobin in philosophy. This is reflected in their code it would seem. The reaction to this at the time may be telling.
This article gives a very good overview of the causes of the Black Nazi issue, but also devotes a whole section to calling concerns about the programmers biases paranoid white supremacy. Such dismissiveness of the obvious only radicalizes people who are already on edge because of reasonable concerns.
That issue leads down a whole different rabbit hole that ALSO emerges in Hell, but today we're focused on the hell of the machine overlords making folks crazy.
The problem seems to be akin to mass psychogenic illness, which we've seen throughout history, mostly (but by no means always) in isolated communities. Essentially people get into an intellectual echo chamber that turns into a self reinforcing feedback loop. This can result in a variety of dreadful outcomes ranging from dancing plagues to witch hunts or even homeowners associations. This is because the feedback loop short circuits the general tendency of groups to balance out and moderate viewpoints.
Now however this dynamic is reduced to the individual, being egged on by an A.I., that following its programming is sycophantically egging on and affirming the derp of the person. This is happening individually rather than in groups and it is potentially widespread.
It gets worse:
The history of organizations disrupting a market, dominating it with massive pro-consumer investment, then pulling the ladder up to defend themselves against further disruptions, from the Hanseatic League, to energy, to search results should be the default outcome we expect, because it is the most common outcome in history. The tool that certain tech types are using this time is not bribes or a monopoly on a critical logistics node. It's tool of unimaginable potential that they only incompletely understand but are eager to use. To be fair, they understand these programs about as well as they understand that Brave New World and That Hideous Strength are not 'how to' manuals.
While I an generally pro-progress, pro-tech, and something of a futurist, as a conservative I tend to be mindful of 'Chesterton's Fence' and the pitfalls of impulsively doing away with the cultural guardrails that, in todays society, do not seem, upon first glance, to be relevant, but were built up over millennia to deal with aspects of human nature that are not at all obvious to us and fiendishly difficult to self-reflect upon. Liberals are concerned about the opposite, rightly being wary of inflexibility and ossification stifling progress...both philosophies will lead to perdition if left unchecked, so the messy discourse between the two views, allows a balance and progress while avoiding complete anarchy and hedonism.
This process that leads to clanker craziness short circuits ALL of that.
I noted one manifestation of this issue in an earlier post when I pointed out that an A.I. generated you tube channel was targeting vulnerable, depressed men and potentially acting as a misogyny generator.
It is easy to see how this sort of thing might be leading to the very recent phenomenon of trans school shooters as well as some of the manifestations of 'Tuckertardation'. Of course that is WILD and unfounded speculation. It's also an example of finding simple explanations and scapegoats for complex problems and that's....wait...that itself is insanity.
"AAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!"
I have a degree in history and a bit of a background in oceanography. My skillset includes Hazmat response, merchant vessel inspections, a mild familiarity with OSHA regulations and a fair understanding of weebery. This, almost Lovecraftian issue, is so far out of my league it defies parody. However it is a real problem and it is a genuine concern.
I am not a Butlerian Jihadist, I have been pleasantly amazed at the strides A.I. has made in allowing people to overcome limits and pursue cultivation in many fields. I am cautiously hopeful for these tools to greatly facilitate human flourishing. However, the outlook of many of the developers of the tech, as well as the algorithms ability to write quite effective code for wetware as well as software does cause me a bit of concern. OK...dread.
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To some extent, the basic sanity problems were always there, and one of the things that exposed them was political processes over fifteen years.
The communist trans shooters are basically the entire point of the trans push, and related theory in academia.
The previous cohorts of communists pumped out by the public schools were not permanent enough in their communism, and too reluctant to kill. So they basically told all the mentally ill kids that communist activism would make them happy, and that mainstream reluctance was homicidal towards trans queer neurodivergents.
More to follow...
Posted by: PatBuckman at Tue Feb 24 12:40:25 2026 (rcPLc)
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Basic sanity problems I did not intend to refer only to the kids, or only to the spree shooters.
I think managers and technologists being unbalanced enough to buy into the energy transition, for one, is basically the same sort of ignorance that lead to the rosey assessments of AI ROI.
Hayek got the Nobel prize in /1974/, these are not particularly new ideas, or particularly obscure. Putting the pieces together is maybe some work, but we can put bounds on the idea that we can simply declare machines into existence, or declare that they must have such and such economic results. (I think that people in academia don't have these tools, because they don't want to have them.)
The hypothesis of huge economic gains from LLMs, programming aside, implied just as huge gains to be made from deregulating and cutting taxes, but potentially at lower costs in labor or energy. Considering programming alone, real gains would only be possible if management were cognizant of technical debt, and willing to try to minimize it.
Anyway, the actual scholarship and 'scholarship' on the mathematics and computer science is riddled with people out of their freaking minds, before the working LLMs came into play. Those people were some of the ones both going around trying to do the AGI, and the ones warning about it causing the extinction of humanity.
Yes, LLMs can be a bad combination with a lot of people, especially with schizo type problems. I avoid them myself, for various reasons.
Anyway, the spree shooters are basically downstream of the schools. The trans spree shooters are schools and Obamacare.
Candace Owens I suspect was already crazy in a compatible way, and was not equipped to navigate on her own when the Republican verbal services community split into enough pieces.
We definitely have rough seas for mental health. I think the AI may not be having a strong effect in making them worse. (It is not like I have information to estimate that AI effect well.)
Bunch of very complicated estimation problems, very interesting.
That dread from prediction via theoretical model is something I have to work at attempting to stop myself. My own peace of mind tends to require that I make some attempt to be careful about what I do not know, especially about the future.
Posted by: PatBuckman at Tue Feb 24 18:58:12 2026 (rcPLc)
This week's abbreviated schedule is up. As Wednesday will be the last stream before my second, and hopefully final surgery on Friday, Tomorrow's stream will be the last one for between two and three weeks. Then it will be two to three weeks of silence as I recover, in a location with no internet Tonight we will derp around in Disgaea 2, marveling at the sheer wackiness and meta awareness of this early 2000s JRPG. Tomorrow, we'll chill in Genshin Impact, gathering resources and doing audience participation (if people want). The fun begins at 7: 30 pm EST / 11:30pm UTC at https://www.twitch.tv/brickmuppet .
Jesse Jackson Has Passed:
Jesse Jackson was a tremendously gifted and influential civil rights leader.
While I certainly had issues with some of his views and actions in later years, he was a tremendously powerful and generally positive influence on the nation on the 1970's and early '80s.
Today I happened across a quote from the late P.J. O’Rourke on Jackson's astounding oratory skills:
He is the only living American politician with a mastery of classical rhetoric. Assonance, alliteration, litotes, pleonasm, parallelism, exclamation, climax and epigram — to listen to Jesse Jackson is to hear everything mankind has learned about public speaking since Demosthenes. Thus Jackson, the advocate for people who believe themselves to be excluded from Western culture, was the only 1988 presidential candidate to exhibit any of it.
Streaming Schedule:
This week's streaming schedule is up on the Discord.
OH Look! It's here too! Imaging that.
Join us tonight at 9pm EST/ 1am UTC for a channel update and status report. We will also be exploring the new version of Zenless Zone Zero, which we were thwarted from doing on the last stream. This version seems to have massively revamped the interface and gameplay as well as FINALLY introduced the Angels of Delusion into the actual plot (as opposed to a side-quest mini-game). Stop by, say "Hi!" point, laugh, bully me in chat, and join us for all the fun over at https://www.twitch.tv/brickmuppet
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I did a wiki dive, and the adeptus look like they are basically Dao animals from Taoism, or from Chinese buddhism. (Journey to the west, for example.)
Some of the modern scholarly literature, say for Japanese Youkai, talks about witch-animals.
These are animals who practice Taoist immortality practices, and hit the magical level of obtaining human forms or seemings.
(The three deadly selves from last night's stream basically point back to that. These practices are commonly translated as cultivation in the modern webnovels translated to englsih. )
Posted by: PatBuckman at Sat Feb 21 15:04:14 2026 (rcPLc)
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More stuff where my web fiction tastes tell me something. Shaolin temple is Buddhist. The Buddhists and Taoists are both Orthodox factions in Murim/Wuxia fiction, but usually they are distinctly seperate on a school by school basis. Yunkui Summit might not be Buddhist if it is Taoist.
Posted by: PatBuckman at Sat Feb 21 22:30:15 2026 (rcPLc)
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Thanks for that Pat!
I don't think that Yunkui Summit is Buddhist given their focus on cultivation and the ubiquity of the Taoist symbolism in the temple and the higher ranked disciple's uniforms.
On the other hand, the Taijitu does find its way into Buddhist imagery, at least in China and Japan, and the Yunkui Summit school DOES seem to have some similarity to a Shaolin temple. However many of the ideas they throw about are Taoist and that seemed to have a large influence on Chinese Buddhism.
Most of the imagery in the game is just vibbing. They wanted to add a Kung-Fu movie aesthetic to their game (Ju-Fufu is canonically a rather intense fan of the genre) and the increasingly intrusive censorship may prevent them from conveying anything that might be interpreted as religious teachings, so we may just be getting an aesthetic mish-mash that's intentionally heretical to both.
All that being said, Wuxia literature is absolutely not my forte', What I know of it mostly comes from Japanese interpretations thereof, which in turn are heavily influenced by Buddhism. So thanks again for your input. It is greatly appreciated!
Posted by: The Brickmuppet at Sun Feb 22 14:17:31 2026 (dLZLE)
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