March 03, 2022

Some Damn Fool Thing in The Black Sea

Moldovan Tanker MT Millennium Spirit ablaze in the Black Sea.

Russia has hit several civilian ships in the Black Sea. It should be noted that one of the damaged ships was Japanese. An Estonian vessel has exploded under suspicious circumstances and is believed to have hit a mine. Estonia is a NATO member. Numerous NATO members are trying to get people out of Odessa by sea since airliner traffic seems to be off the table. However, Russia has declared the Northern Black Sea to be a war zone, and warned all shipping to make for the Bosphorus. There is considerable coastal traffic in the area between Bulgaria, Romania, and, Turkey, all of which are NATO members. Their navies are presumably trying to protect their civilian shipping. If one of them gets hit, it technically could invoke Article 5.
Meanwhile Turkey has closed the Bosphorus, at least to warships. There are a number of Russian warships and transports trying to transit the waterway and now being denied. What's in the Baltic is what's going to be there for a while. Apparently there is a bit of a backlog of shipping in the Sea of Marmara.

For expert analysis, Brickmuppet Blog now turns to Admiral Painter to see what he thinks about all this. 

Posted by: The Brickmuppet at 03:56 PM | Comments (5) | Add Comment
Post contains 220 words, total size 2 kb.

1 ...And the collective Western leadership (Led Bidette.) is doing a wonderful job of stumbling towards war without bothering to prepare for one or trying to avoid one.*

*Except for Germany, who can't wait to help the Russians bury the Ukraine so they can continue doing business with Moscow.

Posted by: cxt217 at Thu Mar 3 21:28:38 2022 (MuaLM)

2 Not our circus, not our monkeys. So of course we'll be dragged into it. The Big Guy got his 10% and now it's time to pay the piper!

Posted by: jabrwok at Fri Mar 4 20:58:55 2022 (T4WaI)

3 I am not big on getting involved into the Ukraine, but aside the quote attributed to Trotsky, two reasons come to mind for the US directly giving the Russians a can of whop***:

1) We want to send a clear signal to everyone that wars of conquest and annexations are a really BAD idea and that you should not do that, even if you believe you have a right too.  Given how aggressive the PRC has become with Taiwan, reminding people of an actually enduring concept from WW2 would be called for....Before we have to face the issue over some place that is really vital.

2) Given that we are one of the guarantors of the Prague Agreement, I feel that if we can not properly denounce/withdraw from that (And I don't count Obama's 'Nah, we're good' over the Crimea/Donbass as a proper response to it.), it would behoove the US to at least make sure a security treaty we are a part of is not a mere scrap of paper.

Posted by: cxt217 at Sat Mar 5 23:15:56 2022 (MuaLM)

4 It's pretty real out there.
Three days ago, Ukrainians launched a missile at a bulk transport at anchor near Odessa, apparently mistaking it for a Russian BDK type ashore assault ship. The transport eventually sunk. I suspect the small crew could only do little to limit the water intake.

Yesterday, Russians sunk a U.S. supplied patrol boat of "Island" class (if such a thing exists). They weren't able to pick anyone and all 16 aboard are presumed dead.

Posted by: Pete Zaitcev at Sun Mar 6 14:53:40 2022 (LZ7Bg)

5 The Island class are 110 foot Coast Guard patrol boats that are being Phased out of Coast Guard service. They're old (were built in the 80s) but useful as SAR and border guard ships. In CG service they were built with the intention of fitting the Norwegian "Penguin" missiles which are simple but effective pieces of kit. They aren't (and never were) front line vessels at all. 

Posted by: The Brickmuppet at Sun Mar 6 18:38:02 2022 (5iiQK)

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