August 04, 2015
How Much Will 150 Billion Dollars Buy?
Obviously, production and sales tax issues aside, one could purchase 150 billion of those sketchy Dollar Tree steaks. However, one would not be Iran, which is getting 150 billion in frozen assets freed up as part of the deal to...ummm....slow their acquisition of nukes.
Anyway, it is rumored that they have made some interesting purchases:
150 Chinese J-10 fighters (Guestimated at 5.625 billion)
250 Russian SU-30 Strike fighters (Guestimated at 9.375 billion)
100(!) Russian IL 78 refueling tankers (Guestimated at 3.5 billion)
That is a hell of a lot of planes. It's an especially large number of tankers, though if they are serious about power projection 4 fighters per tanker is not unrealistic...it just means the Iranians have given a lot of thought to logistics and other non-flashy assets an air-force needs.
The cost estimates come from Wikipedia and Global security and are WAGs only that don't take into account associated ordinance purchases, training or fuel costs. However, 18.5 billion leaves a lot of wiggle room for these and other pointy, sharp things before 150 billion is reached and its not like the 150 billion is their budget...it's extra.
A few things about this story.
Iran can't actually take delivery for a few years under the terms of the agreement and it's likely that most of the planes couldn't be built /delivered for some time anyway. However a chunk of the Chinese order (and possibly the Russian one as well) actually appears to be a preexisting order from 2007, which was frozen because of the sanctions, so its possible that some of the planes have been built and also conceivable that the ex-post facto nature of the arrangement could allow delivery sooner than normally allowed. That is unclear, but the deal is so full of unpleasantness that it is not beyond the realm of possibility.
This story itself is thinly sourced. It has popped up in a couple of places, but it seems to always refer back to the DEBKA story or a Wall Street Journal article currently behind a paywall. However, It is well within Iran's financial means and similar numbers of planes were being ordered in 2007 so it is very plausible.
This story also gives some idea of what a windfall Iran has gotten irrespective of the nuclear aspects of the deal by having its assets unfrozen. In adjusted dollars this is a slightly bigger infusion of cash than The Marshall Plan was for Europe.
Oy.
Dennis Prager has a good overview of the situation....
Posted by: The Brickmuppet at
08:08 PM
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Most international arms dealing country actually don't like dealing with Iran due to their propensity of not paying their bills (this is even without sanction). Don't read too much into it. Iran have the habit of making headline screaming deals and then the deal fall apart 2-3 years down the line when their counterpart realize that they're not getting paid.
Posted by: BigFire at Thu Aug 6 08:16:54 2015 (pNmmq)
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