January 07, 2013
It's fairly well, known and its effects are described here and here.
The effect on the ground is described by one of the scientists who examined ground zero:
The ground surface of the island has been levelled, swept and licked so that it looks like a skating rink. The same goes for rocks. The snow has melted and their sides and edges are shiny. There is not a trace of unevenness in the ground... Everything in this area has been swept clean, scoured, melted and blown away.
This flat expanse of trinitite extended 25 kilometers from ground zero.
But as they say that was half the story, and half the yield. This test was of a half yield device. The ultimate in things designed and built to go BOOM was intended to have a third stage of Uranium. In the test device, this uranium jacket was replaced with lead, but was otherwise identical. The uranium jacket would have at least doubled the yield of the weapon. The reason for omitting it from the test was that the uranium would have also precipitated the formation of all sorts of radioactive nasties and would have made it an extraordinarily dirty weapon with tremendous amounts of radioactive fallout even from an air burst. The Soviets decided, understandably, that they did not want the full up weapon detonated in their hemisphere.
The FAS article strongly suggests that this device was never intended to be weaponized and the uranium jacket was designed for kicks. I've heard college professors suggest that this weapon was actually a noble exercise in showing the folly of nukes and was therefore actually a noble gesture of peace. Among the reasons for this is the fact that the bomber that carried it had to be massively modified and lost its internal fuel. Of course they built it with provision for a uranium jacket...
Well, I was not surprised that it was indeed intended to be a weapon, but I was surprised to discover that the weapon was not intended for delivery by plane or rocket, but by torpedo. Andre Sakharov mentioned this in passing and there is now some evidence that this superpowerful hell weapon was intended to take out US ports.
Sakharov's recollection may be off or he didn't originate the idea because the first Soviet nuclear submarines (Project 627) were initially designed around a Tsar Bomb Scale Torpedo...the T-15 and two normal sized torpedo tubes. (link in Russian)

The installation of the titanic torpedo of terror was pushed back while some technical issues were worked out. (I suspect the fact that a 50 NM range was not sufficient to keep from destroying the sub may have been one, though firing the weapon into a port on a timer and leaving would seem to be a viable tactic.)
Eventually most if not all of the Project 627 boats were completed with 8 conventionally sized torpedoes firing a mix of nuclear and conventional torpedoes. They were given the NATO code name November.
But...if the original design had been built and (God forbid) used...how would a full-up 100MT weapon have affected, say...New York? Let's see!
Using the Nukemap online nightmare facilitator we get this.

The nightmare facilitator helpfully color-codes the blast. Going outward from the hypocenter: the yellow in the center is a deep crater of fuzed glass. This is the extent of the fireball itself and EVERYTHING here is utterly gone. The green area has an instant death rate of 50-100 percent due to radiation. This is included in the simulator because it's important for smaller bombs but its really redundant here because the much larger red area overlaps it and experiences instant overpressures of 20PSI and above. Red is going to see the utter destruction of even many steel reinforced concrete buildings. The grey area, which will have overpressure down to 4,6 PSI will see most structures destroyed except for the very strongest steel and concrete structures, which will be damaged. The death rate in the red and grey zones is going to be close to 100% even if NO radiation was present. Overlapping all of these zones, and extending well beyond them the is orange area . Outside the grey area it will still experience some blast damage but the orange zone mainly experiences thermal effects. Any exposed skin gets 3rd degree burns and most everything flammable or combustible burst into flames. This will likely result in a firestorm stretching from Trenton NJ to Brentwood, to Fairfield CT and north almost to West Point. Note that this is a very simplistic map and takes into account dissipation of the blast and the curvature of the earth, but it does not take into account terrain or atmospheric conditions. For instance the facing slopes of hills might get higher level effects than their distance would indicate and info from the actual Tsar Bomba test indicates that scattered fires might be started in the Adirondacks
This blast does not have the vast range of the 1961 test because it is assumed to be a ground burst. Of course a ground burst is a VERY dirty explosion. The harbor is unusable for decades and very likely isn't a harbor any more.
Lets pull back a bit...

The major US harbors would have been destroyed and since the seismic effects would have been greater than 8.0, there would have been earthquake-like damage up and down the eastern seaboard, which transmits seismic waves very efficiently. Remember each 100 MT bomb is roughly half a Krakatoa. Worse, radioactive tsunamis might have done additional damage. The bomb itself, wouldn't cause a real tsunami, but the vertical shaking the concussion would have caused could have precipitated avalanches in the undersea canyons outside many east coast ports. This could conceivably trigger tsunamis.
Note that those 'splody circles are the actual blast fields...to scale.
DC, Philadelphia and Baltimore as torpedo targets are a bit far fetched. One would have to assume torpedoes powered by RTGs or something so the Sub doesn't have to enter the Chesapeake or Delaware Bays. Chicago and Sacramento are rather unlikely targets for a torpedo.
However, the above simulation was done with a slightly different scenario in mind.
The weapon, as big as it was, was not as big as one might think. If you removed the fins, it could fit in an ISO shipping container. It was also not all that advanced in reality. The Soviet engineers designed it very quickly and it was reportedly a straightforward and very conservative scale-up from the U.S.S.R.s early hydrogen weapons. The Soviet engineers did not seem to find it terribly challenging. This means that once anyone gets the ability to produce hydrogen bombs, something like this weapon is a straightforward development, probably only a decade or so down the road. (the Russians did it rather quicker in what by today's standards are primitive conditions, but they are very good at engineering)
Barring a catastrophic screw-up resulting in a nuclear exchange, the current nuclear threat is, at the very most, something along the scale of "Little Boy" (a firecracker by comparison). However, there is no more potent terror weapon than the 'King of Bombs' and the ability to do damage on that scale is demonstrably attainable. That such large weapons are wasteful and poisonous enough to cause massive contamination is of little deterrent to those who covet nukes for terror purposes. Fortunately, no one likely to try and sneak one of these things into the country will be able to develop or obtain them...for at least 10 or 12 years.
UPDATE: Edited for clarity.
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January 06, 2013
One of the Brickmuppets Crack Team of Science Babes has asked that we respond to mysterious commenter "JT" who seems to need information about Three Mile Island. Three Mile Island is a nuclear power plant in Pennsylvania that suffered a partial meltdown in one of its reactors in 1979 due to a confluence of failures, both human and mechanical.. Though widely touted as an unmitigated catastrophe, the areas radiation detectors detected very low levels of radiation released, about 1/1000th that needed to cause immediate heath effects. A subsequent Columbia university study was done in 1991 to measure long term effects. It measured the cancer frequency of the local population to the US as a whole over the 10 years since the accident and found a very small increase in some cancers (and a lower rate than the norm for Leukemia). Because the measured increases were so low (between 0.4 and 1.17%) and the distribution did not correlate to the actual contaminated area (as described by wind patterns and dosimeter reports) the Columbia study actually suggested that stress was as a possible cause of the increase...and with all the hype the people of the area had certainly been subjected to stress. A more recent study points out that the area along the Susquehanna river near Three Mile Island happens to have one of the highest radon levels in the USA. This might invalidate all attempts to tie cancers to the reactor accident. Not mentioned in either study is the likelihood that residents around Three Mile Island were screened for cancers at a higher rate than the average US population which likely further skewed the number of cancer discoveries and thus the overall numbers.
Thus it is pretty darned clear that, while initial concern regards the incident was good and proper the subsequent hype and hysteria was both irresponsible and grossly misleading. Furthermore, the effects of the breathless and sensational coverage included the virtual death of the nuclear plant construction in the USA, which was a far greater catastrophe for the nation than the accident itself.
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December 25, 2012
One of the Brickmuppet's crack team of science babes has just rolled in with some space related news, both historical and current. She looks quite...um...we're just going to go with 'pleased'.First comes some follow up on a previous post here, namely that the Horizons newsletter of AIAA Houston has completed the second and third installments of their fully restored (and annotated), high res reprints of the iconic Colliers series on space travel from the 1950's. The series, Man Will Conquer Space Soon was an extremely important work in that it brought to the public the realization that space travel was possible in the near term. The two most recent installments focus on lunar exploration and while they diverge greatly in both architecture and scale from the Apollo program, the expedition envisioned in the articles are still largely sound from an engineering standpoint (though the procedure for setting up the shelter is not entirely practical). Von Braun and Ley worked out their endeavor in minute detail and provided sufficient weight margins for incorporating additional equipment should they be deemed necessary by subsequent discoveries. The Horizons team has provided high resolution versions which is especially important given that the articles were illustrated by Fred Freeman and Chelsey Bonnestell.
To wit...

There's a lot more in both issues ranging from a helicopter-space-capsule to a newly discovered, highly accessible Near Earth Asteroid.
One of the advisers on this project is Scott Lowther , who publishes Aerospace Projects Review, one of the best journals available dedicated to obscure, or poorly understood chapters in Aerospace engineering history. He also has a wide selection of interesting articles and documents for sale...go check it out.
The impressive architecture envisioned by the engineers who consulted for the Colliers symposium required the use of multi-stage reuseable rockets....
...which brings us to the current efforts by Space-X. That company, which has made great strides in low cost access to space, is now working on a reusable version of its Falcon launch vehicle. Rather than try for SSTO or recover stages in the ocean they plan on having the individual stages land vertically under power. This promises impressive cost savings with a more conservative design than most reusable rocket proposals if it can be made to work.
A test flight of their Grasshopper test rig with a Cowboy crash dummy on December 17 was completely successful.
'Science Babe' with inscrutable expression is actually Emi from KatawaShoujo.
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December 18, 2012

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October 14, 2012

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Felix Baumgartner broke the sound barrier after leaping from a balloon at an altitude of 24 miles. He achieved Mach 1.24!
Video of the press conference here.

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September 27, 2012
Nazi-Acquired Buddha Statue Came From Space

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September 03, 2012
report on an interesting project at the AIAA-Houston section newsletter which is undertaking a reprint and analysis of the famous series of articles published in 8 issues of Collier's Magazine in the 1950s titled Man Will Conquer Space Soon. The series laid out a very forward thinking vision of space exploration that included detailed plans for exploring both the Moon and Mars. The plan, developed largely by Wherner Von Braun and Wley Ley was, surprisingly sound technically (if not fiscally). Scott Lowther, who publishes the superb Aerospace Projects Review, is overseeing the republishing of the articles in high resolution which is particularly significant given the art by Fred Freeman and Chelsey Bonnestell. The ads have been replaces with short aerospace articles relating to the series that include some technical analysis of what they got right and wrong. Upcoming issues of AIAA-Houston will do the same for the remaining 8 installments of the old series.
Here's a sample:

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August 06, 2012
Curiosity has landed on Mars.

Oh and by landed...I mean not impacted...that's an important distinction.

Oh...well then...
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July 14, 2012

It must have had a very unusual origin and might even have formed in another solar system probably very different from our own.
Yes this comet may well have come from outside our solar system.
Via Spaceweather, there is an essay here on this comet and a few objects that may share the same origin.
As for looking at it, Pixy and his fellow antipodeans have a good view via telescope if they so choose.
For Northern hemisphere observers, the comet is unobservable before perihelion, but is viewable near the end of the month when it also appears low down in the evening sky. It remains observable although rapidly fading in brightness into August.

'Science Babe' is actually Shizune Hachimaki from Katawa Shoujo.
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July 08, 2012
...But in Japanese, vegetables are ao-mono, literally blue things. Green apples? They’re blue too. As are the first leaves of spring, if you go by their Japanese name. In English, the term green is sometimes used to describe a novice, someone inexperienced. In Japanese, they’re ao-kusai, literally they ‘smell of blue’...
You know...I really ought to have caught that.

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June 05, 2012

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March 27, 2012
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November 06, 2011
It is 56 degrees.
If you are a mosquito in the city of Portsmouth VA you are wrong.
There seems to be considerable confusion on this point.
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October 04, 2011

Space-X is looking at this from a business standpoint and they have been toying with recovery of some components using parachutes and water recovery. However, as New Scientist explains, that was a non-starter.
...The only problem was, it didn't work. At the Space Access conference in April, Gwynne Shotwell, SpaceX's president, admitted: "We have recovered pieces of the first stages." The first stages weren't even getting as far as deploying their parachutes – they were breaking up during atmospheric re-entry...
After that they went back to the drawing board. Now they have come up with a suborbital test rig called "Grasshopper". Although its flight frofile will be reminiscent of the old DC-X, its just a modified Falcon 9 first stage...which is rather the point of the tests. The hope to launch and land the thing 70 times in a year from their facility in McGregor Texas. If these are successful? Well then.....
Good Choice of BGM
...it looks reasonably practical, with a minimum of ridiculocity… no wings, scramjets or need for advanced materials. The basic concept is more than forty years old, going back to not only Phil Bono’s Saturn S-IVB stage recoverability concepts, but even further to Chrysler Mercury-Redstone recoverability concepts. Ditching parachutes entirely is a ballsy move, but if your rockets are sufficiently reliable – maybe Xcor rockets on the capsule – then chutes aren’t needed.
It is different. To my layman's eye the second stage recovery seems a bit more iffy simply because it will need a lot of heat shielding. OTOH it will be almost empty so perhaps its low sectional density will sufficiently assist. Even if that is a failure (and people with more Letters than me are signing off on this) economical reuseability of the first stage and the spacecraft itself is a very big deal.
In other space news China has launched its first space station successfully.
Strange choice of BGM
Dutch Formula One Tycoon Michiel Mol has teamed up with Dutch Airline KLM as well as XCOR Aerospace to put together a suborbital space tour operating out of the Dutch island of Curacao in the Caribbean. They will be using XCOR's Lynx spacecraft. Mol and KLM also have more ambitious suborbital plans.
Bummer...
OTOH it was humanities first step into space...so Yay! Sputnik!

Rand Simberg has thoughts and reflections.
Science 'Matango' is, of course, Ritzu from K-on!
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September 26, 2011
UPDATE: I'm not finding much in the way of debunkery of this story online. Car and Tech blogs seem to be pretty sanguine about lasering thorium to power cars and one site that focuses on rare metals seems to think the lasing thing makes sense with Thorium.
HOWEVER...
I found little about the Doctor Charles Stevens mentioned in the many articles I perused below. However, I went to the Laser Power Systems site, which is pretty spartan unless one registers...I mean spartan as in there is NOTHING there. Well, I registered hoping to find patent, tech or business info.
Boy Howdy.
After registering, if one clicks on "patents"one is taken to a page called the
Galactic Governments Patent Office
...which seems to be a separate website that is railing against new patent legislation....but has no patents. And there isn't much there. On the "News Feed"....I saw "Brickmuppet Registers" as the most recent news. The other site is LaserTurbinePower.com. Registering there takes one to a screen that is labeled Registered Users Area, but that's it...no links...nothing just a page that one has to register to access....with no info or business plan or catgirls or anything
I did track down this powerpoint online...which is an Laser Power Systems pitch from 2009 that contains a host of spelling errors and a working diagram that rivals the U.S. Department of Innovation's Logo for functionality.
One other thing (scarcely worth mentioning I'm sure).
Another Dr. Charles Stevens (who has the same contact phone number) is the founder of Helyxzion, LLC. This is claimed to be a genomics company and my undergraduate biology tells me that his biddness plan is...dubious. I also note that both of these Dr. Charles Stevenses (who share he same phone number) have been working in their respective fields since the mid-80's. I guess that apartment is just full of mad science...Wait...maybe its not an apartment...I'm now envisioning something along the lines of Conjectural Technologies.

Now can someone explain to me why no one from any of these rated sites did this cursory bit of research? It certainly doesn't excuse my screw up...but damn.
Of course it's not their fault I posted it. This screw up was in my post, on my blog and was my fault.
I apologize profusely to my readers for this post which I am now moving below the fold where it shall fester as a shameful reminder to all of my fallibility.

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September 14, 2011

It's...technical...
This is actually a big deal. These airships are much better able to handle winds than conventional airships and heavy lift requirements in remote locations would seem to play to their strengths.

The ships currently offered have lift capacities of up to 200 tons , but there are vehicles in development that have a 1000 ton payload.
Unlike normal airships these vehicles are generally trimmed to be slightly heavier than air, which makes them much better ships in a storm, they can still do vertical takeoffs and hovering via their thrust vectoring systems. For the vast Canadian Arctic these ships could indeed be a boon in opening up the wilderness.
If they work out there they could have any number of civilian and military applications., from container transport to passenger liner to Coast Guard cutter.
'Science Babe' is by Sakamoto Mineji
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I've long thought that Bachmann is vastly and disturbingly closer to the medias image of Palin than Palin herself is. I'd actually been meaning to write about why she bothered me...but I didn't and now there is no need as she seems to have self-immolated the other night.
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September 05, 2011
Hey kids, I have an idea, why don't you ask your professor about how Facebook and Twitter were used during the Cuban Missile Crisis. I mean they HAD to have had an impact right? You professor will be SO impressed with you.
Now go tweet someplace that is not on my lawn.
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August 10, 2011

Yes...boys and girls ...robot English teachers.
TIME magazine suggested the machines may threaten the jobs of some of the 20,000 to 30,000 foreign English teachers in Korea. It also named the robots one of the 50 best inventions of 2010.
BTW The existence of those two sentences in that order proves that TIME is staffed by dicks.
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