July 31, 2022

Meanwhile: In the Taiwan Straits

The People's Republic of China is holding live fire drills with naval and costal artillery assets as the U.S. Navy sends a carrier strike group into the contested waters around the Republic of China on Taiwan. 

All this is because the U.S. Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, offhandedly mentioned that she was going to visit Taiwan as part of her visit to several east Asian countries.  The Chicoms reacted with the grace and dignity one has come to expect from them over the last few years, threatening President Biden in the course of an angry two hour phone call between him and Party Chairman Xi Xinping and publicly threatening to blow the U.S. congressional delegation's plane out of the sky if they actually look like they are going to land on Taiwan.  

My dislike of the current Speaker of the House is nothing short of Brobdingnagian, but I laud her for standing by an ally. I also think that she and the congressional delegation now HAVE to visit Taiwan as not doing so will send a message of weakness and acquiescence that will almost certainly come back to haunt us most calamitously in the near future. 

China, internally, is currently in far greater turmoil than is generally appreciated, (but that even commies are noting) and its leadership cadre are looking for a distraction that can shore up support amongst the people and assure the populace that the regime still has the "Mandate of Heaven", which, while not recognized by the politburo, is a deeply ingrained cultural tradition in China.

Things are sufficiently messed up in the Middle Kingdom right now that it is quite possible that Xi might roll the dice in hopes of a 'short victorious war'. 

Taiwan is where the vast majority of our semi-conductors are made, at least the ones not made with Chinese spyware. Taiwan is actually of such strategic importance that it's a place that most Democrats, Republicans, and even some Libertarians are willing to fight for for both moral, economic and strategic reasons. 

This could get very hot, very quick. 

Fill your tanks with gas tonight. 

Maybe buy some canned food. 

And save some bottle caps. 

Posted by: The Brickmuppet at 08:28 PM | Comments (5) | Add Comment
Post contains 368 words, total size 4 kb.

1 I have much skepticism that anything close to a majority or a plurality in the Democrat Party are willing to fight for Taiwan, especially given the comfortable and profitable relations said Democrats had with the PRC.  If anything, I am surprised that the Democrats have not given up Taiwan already to the PRC (Recall that during the Obama era, some Democrat brain-trust were writing opinion pieces in periodicals speculating on how much the PRC might be willing to pay the US if the US gave Taiwan to them Commies.).
While there are Republicans who are willing to enforce the terms of the Taiwan Relations Act (Adam Kinzinger, for all his despicable behavior, was originally a major supporter of Taiwan to the point of endorsing the US supplying nuclear weapons to the ROC.), there are precious few Democrats - and that is before getting to Biden and other Democrats finding joy in surrendering something important to the US to our enemies.

No, the Democrats are not supporters of Taiwan, either inherently or on a transactional basis - and it would be fooling oneself to believe the idea.

Posted by: cxt217 at Mon Aug 1 00:33:50 2022 (2tHvf)

2 Yeah, I'm shocked that Pelosi would do this; I thought she was firmly on the side of 'sell out everyone to the PRC'. 

Probably more Americans are boycotting goods made with Red China's slave labor.  Perhaps MOSS are no longer able to make their payments to the California faction of Democrats.

Posted by: Pat Buckman at Mon Aug 1 00:45:09 2022 (r9O5h)

3 I'm reminded that the Democrats were probably pushing war with Russia in the hope that it would be excuse to clamp down on internal dissent. 

So, this may be the same motivation as that absolutely insane gun control thing that the House just passed.

I don't think Pelosi is willing to sacrifice herself for the sake of their goal   But, if their motivations are purely domestic, they may be surprised at the PRC not playing along.

Posted by: Pat Buckman at Mon Aug 1 01:02:23 2022 (r9O5h)

4 Pelosi is a bid of an odd duck with regards to China. She takes her progressivism seriously, and has at least partially supported if not even pushed for most of our "security actions" that are nominally in support of defending oppressed peoples, eg our actions in Libya, Syria, etc. Many many years ago she visited the PRC, and was rather rudely chased away from Tiananmen Square, which she did not take kindly.  On the other hand, she's generally happy to take most anyone's donations and happily sits down at the table with just about anyone who mouths the right sayings, even when it turns out that they are members in good standing of the CCP.
If China goes after Taiwan, either via pure military force or just untenable diplomatic pressure, and we don't step in with a credible response, it will basically mark the end of the current era of international security arrangements. It will be every nation for themselves, take what you think you can grab and hold, and things will get very ugly, very quickly.

Posted by: David at Mon Aug 1 02:18:00 2022 (D6Mju)

5 If China goes after Taiwan, either via pure military force or just untenable diplomatic pressure, and we don't step in with a credible response, it will basically mark the end of the current era of international security arrangements.

Obama already killed that with both the nuclear deal with Iran and voiding Prague Agreement.  Given the Biden is even less willing to use force to back US interests or even support them, and it is amazing that PRC has not done more sooner.

Posted by: cxt217 at Mon Aug 1 11:48:05 2022 (2tHvf)

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