August 03, 2015
PESHAWAR, Pakistan—Six leading figures of the Pakistani Taliban pledged allegiance to the terror group ISIS, one of them claimed in an audio message released Tuesday.
It is part of a general pattern of deterioration of India/ Pakistan relations..
Conditions are ripe for a crisis in this strained environment, even more so if a terrorist attack on Indian soil—such as Monday’s—is traced back to extremist groups supported by Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). These rising tensions make crisis management more difficult and increase the risk of a conflict with nuclear dimensions.
Smoke emissions of 100 lowyield urban explosions in a regional nuclear conflict would generate substantial globalscale climate anomalies, although not as large as in previous "nuclear winter”scenarios for a full-scale war (11, 12). However, indirect effects on surface land temperatures, precipitation rates, and growing season lengths (see figure, page1225) would be likely to degrade agricultural productivity to an extent that historically has led to famines in Africa, India, and Japan after the 1783 1784 Laki eruption (13) or in the northeastern United States and Europe after the Tambora eruption of 1815
(Obviously better not to have that happen than have it happen, but it seems to me that the main effects of nuclear weapons that need to be worried about are very much in the target area. i.e. The world won't be turning into a cinder: The targets will be turning into a cinder, and we can't really expect western handwringing over the end of the world to deter other countries (much less crazy ones like NK or Pakistan.).)
Posted by: EccentricOrbit at Mon Aug 3 07:14:44 2015 (GtPd7)
Posted by: EccentricOrbit at Mon Aug 3 07:15:41 2015 (GtPd7)
Doesn't earth, in the daylight, get something on the order of 500-1000 W/m^2? (I know it's 1000 W/m^2 in orbit above the atmosphere) Would a 0.01 W/m^2 haze layer be noticeable without instruments?
I honestly don't know. I doubt that 0.01 would register against Chinese factory emissions, but I think 0.1 (which also appears in places on the.gif) might be relevant. The study has the exchange take place in late winter early spring, which is bad for the northern hemisphere since even a tiny reduction in wattage to the surface would reduce snowmelt and warming, so, the timing is probably worst case. There is some affect in the southern hemisphere as well. I suspect these nuclear winter scenarios are sexed up, a bit but the fact that the number of and yield of the bombs was so minimalist for a full war between the two countries. (I'd figure 150-200 detonations of 40-100 kilotons) that the low estimates might correct for any oversestimation in effects.
Posted by: The Brickmuppet at Mon Aug 3 07:39:32 2015 (1zM3A)
PS: Your CAPTCHA seems to be stuck on asking the same question over and over.
Pixy... One of my readers does not like apple pie.
Posted by: The Brickmuppet at Mon Aug 3 07:41:13 2015 (1zM3A)
Even if the captcha isn't cycling, for the time being it's still enough to exclude all the spambots.
Jim Dunnigan's "Quick and Dirty Guide to War" is excellent and has been updated several times since it came out. It makes for chilling reading.
When it was originally written (1990?) it said the most likely place for a nuclear exchange was between India and Pakistan, following this scenario:
A new serious border war breaks out between the two nations, and India's military prevails. Indian military units enter Pakistan and head for the major cities. Pakistan then uses nukes in its own territory to stop the Indian invasion.
India then bombs Pakistan in retaliation and it eventually escalates to a city-swapping duel.
I can't really argue with that scenario; it makes too much sense to me. And until Iran completes its arsenal and makes good on its threat to nuke Israel, this scenario still seems like the highest probability of nuclear war on the planet.
Posted by: Steven Den Beste at Mon Aug 3 10:52:29 2015 (+rSRq)
Posted by: Pete Zaitcev at Wed Aug 5 12:06:46 2015 (RqRa5)
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