March 17, 2019
Well THIS Has Slipped Under the Radar
While we weren't looking, Nebraska got wet.
Picture via AP
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November 11, 2018
100 Years Ago Today...
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All those who fought in that war are dead, as are most who remember as children seeing everywhere the maimed and blind the shells and gas had produced.
...the the carnage that broke the soul of the west ended. There was peace.
Yay.
The second, more well known world war that this miserable, pointless conflict gave birth to has likewise seen most of those who remember it firsthand pass on. A dwindling minority know what a real war, against a peer nation is. For all of the courage of the armed forces of the U.S. and our allies, we've been fighting foes that are clever, tenacious, and murderous, but nowhere near our peers.
The conflicts that threaten to visit us, whether our opponents be foreign, domestic or both are nothing like the War on Terror.
If these conflicts come to pass, they will find us on equal terms or starting at a disadvantage. This is an experience that few today can conceive of...which makes the actual war more likely as there is neither the institutional nor cultural reference for what a conflict between equals entails. We encounter no large groups of people with their eyes boiled out by Lewisite...
...or their limbs blown off by explosions. Even a later generation, with Keloids inflicted by a flash brighter than the sun has passed on, with their most poingniant testimonials having faded over time.
So there is, all around, much bravado born in the special courage that comes from ignorance.
Today is the 100th anniversary of an armistice that ended a terrible war. We would do well to remember not the victory parades, but why people had them and what they were celebrating the end of.
War is a dreadful thing.
Of course Auschwitz and Dachau stand in mute testimony to the fact that war is, sometimes, VERY necessary. But we should look honestly at how perfectly dreadful a war between peers is, lest we step into the breach unnecessarily as the west did 104 years ago.
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February 12, 2017
Yikes! (Multiple Updates)
It appears that the tallest dam in the United States is about to fail. Evacuations have been ordered for 60,000 people. The Weather Channel briefly interrupted its ZOMG! THERE'S A BLIZZARD IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. IN FEBRUARY!1!! coverage to mention that there is a major issue with the evacuation due to an issue with the roads, though it is unclear what this issue is. Aside from that brief mention, I see nothing on any of the cable news networks which are running perecorded talking heads shows, prison dramas, The Grammys or Anthony Bourdain.
This could be a true catastrophe. Thousands may be about to die, some because they were watching cable news instead of skimming news feeds before going to bed.
Why do we have these 24 hour cable new networks? This would seem to be news.
UPDATE 2: No dam break yet, and it is looking like if it happens it will not completely drain the lake! still this is a very dangerous situation. Sondra K's site was Instalanched into blogblivion earlier, but she is back up and running and the pictures she has of the dam are worth a look.
It looks like one of the big reasons for this debacle is that infrastructure maintenance is not sexy. Authorities were warned that there were issues with the spillway 12 years ago, but the state decided to spend money on other things (I'll assume it was hookers and blow.)
Of course, given the general unaccountability of government, it's unlikely we'll ever know any of the people personally responsible for nixing the needed repairs of the spillway...oh wait:
A filing on May 26, 2006, by Thomas Berliner, an attorney for the State Water Contractors, and Douglas Adamson, an attorney for the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California, discounted the risk. It urged FERC to reject the request to require that the emergency spillway be armored, a job that would have cost tens, if not hundreds, of millions of dollars.
In fairness to these two numbnuts, the many issues with infrastructure maintenance are not limited to unseriousness, corruption and the stupidity of bureaucracies...There's malice too!
For a bit over a decade there has been a movement amongst the environmentalists to remove dams note this article which celebrates the removal of dams throughout the U.S.. Remember, these are the same people who demand that we generate power without burning fossil fuels, so their hostility to the only reliable and scalable non combustible, non fissionable energy source indicates...something...(In fairness it could be madness, malice, a lack of reading comprehension or stupidity)
Note too that the recent drought in California was not helped by a lack of reservoirs.
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October 23, 2015
200 MPH Sustained
Holy Crap!
This is the most powerful hurricane in history and is about to absolutely nail Manzanillo and Puerto Valarta as well as do a lot of damage to Guadalajara. Worse, the west coast of the USM rarely gets hit by hurricanes, so a lot of the people there have no appreciation for what these storms can do.
The flooding in Mexico is likely to be biblical when it hits the West Sierra Madre and again when it passes over the Eastern Sierra Madre but it will still be bad when it reaches Texas, where they are talking about 8-12 inches in Houston, which has already been hit by flooding this week and is thoroughly saturated.
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August 16, 2015
How Far Can He Go? How Long Will He Stay Free?
The videos of the massive explosion in Tianjin keep getting pulled from the internet. However, one brave reporter, a He Xiaoxin, DID get into the affected area and took some pictures. I don't expect this report to remain up much longer, but I'm linking to it. I'm also posting his pictures below the fold to save them from the inevitable purge. I don't normally nick more than one pic from a news article and clearly identify the source via hyperlink and I certainly don't make a habit of nicking all the picture from a photo essay because that is, frankly, WRONG.
However, the likelihood of his work being bering deemed triggering to the Chinese government and sent down the memory hole moves me to do this. Fortunately, He Xiaoxin has extensively watermarked his work. If one reposts any of these, PLEASE make sure to credit He Xiaoxin and The China Digital Times. Also do read his whole article, not only to give the paper hits but because his text provides valuable context.
more...
However, if the article is gone then click on "more" and behold...the effects of a quarter kiloton blast....
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August 12, 2015
The Sheer SCALE
of the blasts in Tianjin made clear by the buildings in these videos.
This looks to be at least as bad as Texas City or Black Tom.
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December 04, 2014
Oh No...
Ruby is a category 5 storm and is going to hit approximately where Haiyan did. Where there are 15,000 people still living in tents.
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October 29, 2014
Snowflakes Can Help Spread Ebola!?
Actually, they have to be precious, special ones.
The nurse who was quarantined after returning from treating Ebola patients in West Africa has given the State of Maine until Thursday to let her move freely, setting up what could be a test case of whether state quarantines are legal.
This is quite troubling. Ebola is not an unmanageable problem as Senegal and Nigeria have shown, but it is not to be trifled with.
It is said that doctors make the worst patients. Miss Hickox and her colleague in New York, (who lied to authorities about breaking quarantine ) are doing nothing to contradict that notion.
Ace has some thoughts on this that are worth reading.
The reason we have coercive, non-voluntary quarantines is that we have learned through 4,000 years of recorded human history that people will not voluntarily self-quarantine, and will in fact act irrationally as willing agents of plague.
It bears repeating that Ebola spread to Nigeria, and very nearly Minnesota because an American named Patrick Sawyer decided that quarantine ought not to apply to his own special self. One of the problems America faces is a class of people who believe that they are above the laws they set for others. In the case of these doctors such aristocratic self indulgence could make a manageable problem a catastrophe. This would not be the first time political pressure screwed up a public health response, but it is far less excusable since this disease is far easier to screen for.
The thing I like MOST about the United States is that the hypocrisy and sense of entitlement that some of its doctors have are almost indistinguishable from negligence and stupidity!
In other news: It appears that Ebola Tan's pet skull is named Wilhelm. How this information might be of use is unclear to me at this time.
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August 20, 2014
All Eyes Are Upon the Unrest in Ferguson
So it might behoove us to look at what is happening elsewhere.
IS (o ISIS or ISIL there is some disagreement on the proper acronym for these fiends) has beheaded an American journalist ( James Wright Foley) on video and placed another reporter, Time's Steven Sotloff next to Foley's corpse and threatened to behead him unless their demands are met.
Foley seems to have been quite highly regarded. A brief excerpt of a 2011 interview with him can be seen from 00:33 to 01:58 here.
It should be noted that the executioner has a British accent, which is not entirely surprising, but is worrisome. Likewise, the fact that Sotloff was taken prisoner in Libya and transported to Iraq indicates an impressive reach and logistical capability by ISIS.
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The situation in the Ukraine has taken a hopeful turn as Russian and Ukrainian leaders representatives are set to meet negotiations next week. This comes as Ukrainian forces seem to be getting the better of the secessionists. This is a conflict with some very nasty ethnic components, so a diplomatic solution would be most welcome.
In related news; Apparently there is a group of American volunteers/mercenaries fighting with the Ukrainians and one of them was just killed.
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In response to China's bellicose gestures, Japan is 'modifying' Article 9 of their constitution.
Meanwhile, China has sent two survey vessels to survey the Philippines for...future construction.
The PRC last week also tested a hypersonic (Mach 10) cruise missile. The week prior they tested what seems to have been MIRVed versions of their old DF5 and the new DF31 ICBMs. China also felt this an opertune time to mention that announcing that the long rumored DF-41 road mobile ICBM was in fact, operational. This was just after.a test of an anti-satellite weapon.
The People's Republic also snubbed a US proposal that countries not do things like build outposts in other countries territorial wasters.
Chinese troops have been moving into an area claimed by India and planting flags .
*************
On the Ebola front, the experimental drug tested on the three missionaries from the US and Spain looks promising. While the Spanish patient died, the two American aid workers seem to be recovering. The few remaining samples have been sent to Liberia, but the drug takes a long time to make, and there are regulatory hurdles. However, accelerated testing is being done of this and other vaccines.
In Africa however, the situation is still quite dire, with a raid by a mob on an Ebola treatment facility eliciting some concern. Reportedly, in addition to freeing all the patients under quarantine, they stole bloody sheets and other infected items, so it's going to get worse.
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While all this is going on the military is downsizing. That's not necessarily a dreadful mistake as there is a good bit of waste in the Pentagon. Particularly in the Army, after 10 years of war, one might well consider it good to weed out the people who in that time avoided combat and promote those who displayed out of the box thinking in time of war. One might especially want to retain those with awards for valor. Well, if one thinks that, then one is not in charge of the current downsizing process....
This is terrifying:
The derogatory information didn't have to be recent. Got a GOMOR as a 2nd Lieutenant for Dumb LT Tricks, eight years ago? Kiss your ass goodbye. Got an Article 15 as a private before soldiering your way back into the Army's good graces, and then getting a ROTC scholarship? You're gone.A non-GO Memorandum Of Reprimand was also a career killer, if you got it for something the Chief of Staff doesn't like - like carrying a personally owned weapon. That sent one combat-vet with a Purple Heart to the Dreaded Private Sector.
Being overweight, or looking overweight in your photo: killer.
A more trivial career killer, but one the board actually used: having your official DA photo in the old Army Green service uniform, not the new blue Army Service Uniform.
Purple hearts and bronze stars seem to have no effect on ones assessment. Having no combat experience is NOT a demerit. This is how you build an Army of bureaucratic wienies. It is how third world dictators set up their armies, with yes-men and those who fear above all taking a chance or trying new things.
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Just before the unpleasantness started in Ferguson, there were some really revolting anti-semitic incidents including a mob shouting "Jews go back to Birkenau!"...In Boston.
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As to Ferguson itself...it's probably good to withhold judgement until the facts of the shooting are made public later this week. Like so many recent news stories most of the initial reports were wrong, and that trend seems to continue nightly. The near nightly looting, is, of course, unacceptable and ( conversely) there are many concerns, not unfounded, regards the militarization of police forces. However, I urge you to read Tamara K's thoughts on the issue in full. It makes no judgments but provides important historical perspective.
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Finally, it should be mentioned that there is another demonstration taking place by individuals who are fed up and seek respect from the police. For some reason, despite being in the media mecca of New York, this is not garnering a lot of coverage...
Who would have thunk it?
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August 03, 2014
100 Years Ago Today
The whole situation in Europe had been deteriorating since the 28th, but there had been an ephemeral moment of hope on August first, whe King George V himself had intervened and was exchanging telegrams with his cousins the Kaiser and the Tsar. There appeared to be some conciliation possible but a report that Russian troops had crossed the Austrian frontier invoked a declaration of war by Germany, While all this was going on Belgium was being discretely asked if they would mind terribly if a million or so German troops were to just, kind of pass through their country...for some reason.
Over the next 24 hours, German troops entered Russia's Polish territory, a German cruiser squadron bombarded the baltic town of Libau and German troops just kind of showed up in Luxembourg Significantly, that night. there were reports of German troops as far as 10 miles inside France and French border guards being killed.
The next day, August 3rd, German aircraft bombed the French city of Lune'ville. Belgium responded to Germany's inquiries with an emphatic "NO!". They then invoked their treaty with the British Empire and requested that London help them preserve their sovereignty. The British responded with a n order for full mobilization.
Then as German and Russian troops engaged each other on the Polish/Prussian frontier Germany declared war upon France.
With that, Hell descended upon Europe, and a catastrophe that the world has never fully recovered from began in earnest, 100 years ago today.
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July 26, 2014
100 years Ago Today
In July of 1914, the British Royal Navy was conducting a reserve mobilization drill. This once in a decade endeavor involved calling up reservists and bringing old ships out of reserve, getting them seaworthy and conducting training maneuvers with the active navy which was largely recalled to home waters for the affair. This drill was scheduled to end on July 26th, however, First Lord of the Admiralty Winston Churchill, ordered all hands to stand fast and the fleet to not disperse as planned. From this moment the RN was on a full war footing, something that would normally have taken months to achieve.
Emperor Franz Joseph of the Austrio-Hungarian Empire was reasonably satisfied with the Serbian response to his governments demands and ordered the Serbian Chief of Staff to be released with apologies. On the same day and perhaps in response to this act, his Army Chief of Staff and Foreign Minister quietly exchanged letters
Berchtold: "We should like to deliver the declaration of war on Serbia as soon as possible so as to put an end to diverse influences. When do you want the declaration of war? Conrad: Only when we have progressed far enough for operations to begin immediately—on approximately August 12th. Berchtold: "The diplomatic situation will not hold as long as that.” [/quote]
(Quote via Wikipedia)
....Meanwhile, the diplomatic heads of both Austria and Russia rejected an offer by Sir Edward Grey (the British Foreign Minister) to mediate the dispute.
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July 25, 2014
100 Years Ago Today
Austria-Hungary turned down a Russian proposal to extend the deadline on the terms previously presented to Serbia. Serbia, to everyone's astonishment, agreed to nearly all the humiliating demands by 5:58pm on the 25th. However they did not accede to the demand that Austria-Hungary be given legal jurisdiction and arrest powers inside Serbia's border. Their response was otherwise humble to the point of groveling. At 6:30pm, the Austrio-Hungarian consulate evacuated their embassy in Belgrade. The Serbian Chief of staff General Putnik, on his way back from consultations in Russia was arrested that evening in Budapest. Taking the hint, the Serbs voted on, and their monarch signed orders for a full emergency mobilization. Most of their government then abandoned the capital and relocated to the more defensible city of Nish.
It should be noted that Germany's Kaiser was on vacation during this time, golfing cruising on his yacht and was only gradually beginning to understand the gravity of the situation. Likewise, Franz Joseph returned from his retreat where he had been since the funeral of his nephew. He was 84...in 1914. Though he was aware of the negotiations with Germany and the seriousness of the Russian assurances of their Serb allies, he was reportedly quite surprised at the harsh language of the ultimatum sent to Serbia by his ministers.
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March 14, 2014
A Few More Crimea Links
The BBC has a series of maps that touch on the political and ethnic history of the peninsula.
Businessweek has an interesting overview of the situation that mentions briefly the CO of the Ukranian naval base in Crimea. Massively outnumbered he was offered the option of a commission in the Russian Navy. He lives in Crimea,, speaks Russian, is an ethnic Russian but took an oath to defend Ukraine until his enlistment is up or he is defeated, so he's declined the offer and is preparing to defend the base (and I imagine get his flotilla ready to break for Odessa).
The Tartars suffered under Stalin nearly as much as the Ukrainians did and are not happy with the upcoming referendum.
A few days old, Cdr Salamander's analysis of some of the lessons from this mess still deserves a read.
Pete Zaitcev reports what he's hearing in Russian language circles in the comments of the previous Crimea thread , though no source is included.
Aw HELL no.
UPDATE: Or...what exactly?
The BBC has a series of maps that touch on the political and ethnic history of the peninsula.
Businessweek has an interesting overview of the situation that mentions briefly the CO of the Ukranian naval base in Crimea. Massively outnumbered he was offered the option of a commission in the Russian Navy. He lives in Crimea,, speaks Russian, is an ethnic Russian but took an oath to defend Ukraine until his enlistment is up or he is defeated, so he's declined the offer and is preparing to defend the base (and I imagine get his flotilla ready to break for Odessa).
The Tartars suffered under Stalin nearly as much as the Ukrainians did and are not happy with the upcoming referendum.
A few days old, Cdr Salamander's analysis of some of the lessons from this mess still deserves a read.
Pete Zaitcev reports what he's hearing in Russian language circles in the comments of the previous Crimea thread , though no source is included.
Aw HELL no.
UPDATE: Or...what exactly?
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March 03, 2014
On Crimea
Jerry Pournelle has thoughts.
He goes on from there. It's short but has a good deal of historical perspective so I urge you to read the whole thing.
Brian Wang has an nice collection of links giving a good overview of the problems the U.S. President faces in making good on his threats. One of the biggest seems to be that the sort of divestment and sanctions policy threatened by SecState Kerry is likely to clobber European banks. I particularly note that China is quite vocally supporting Russia. The fact that after making grand pronouncements of red lines and consequences the US did nothing is a precedent that China is no doubt very pleased with as it looks at the territorial disputes it has with its neighbors.
I don't for a minute think that getting involved in any way is a good or wise. I certainly don't think that there is anything the President could have done to stop this, nor was it in our interest to poke the bear over it. I do think that the loud and empty bluster was supremely ill advised.
The Ukrainians suffered greatly under Stalin to the point that they aligned themselves with Hitler against him. There are reportedly still elements amongst the revolutionaries who look fondly at those who did so, though how influential they actually are is unclear.
The Russians are securing Sevastopol, which, being their only warm water European port is as vital to their economy as the pipelines that cross the Ukraine. The Crimea and western Ukraine are ethnically Russian (60% or more) and so the Russian claims of protecting their own are not entirely fatuous.
This is a nasty business and it apalls me that we are involved on any policy level beyond sending some aid.
Then there is this piece that Ace linked to...which just seems rather....odd.
I know there are people who comment here who know a lot more about this than me...have at it in the comments.
The Wall Street Journal this morning in a lead editorial says flatly that the Russian de facto annexation of the Crimea cannot be allowed to stand. That is because they are crazy...
He goes on from there. It's short but has a good deal of historical perspective so I urge you to read the whole thing.
Brian Wang has an nice collection of links giving a good overview of the problems the U.S. President faces in making good on his threats. One of the biggest seems to be that the sort of divestment and sanctions policy threatened by SecState Kerry is likely to clobber European banks. I particularly note that China is quite vocally supporting Russia. The fact that after making grand pronouncements of red lines and consequences the US did nothing is a precedent that China is no doubt very pleased with as it looks at the territorial disputes it has with its neighbors.
I don't for a minute think that getting involved in any way is a good or wise. I certainly don't think that there is anything the President could have done to stop this, nor was it in our interest to poke the bear over it. I do think that the loud and empty bluster was supremely ill advised.
The Ukrainians suffered greatly under Stalin to the point that they aligned themselves with Hitler against him. There are reportedly still elements amongst the revolutionaries who look fondly at those who did so, though how influential they actually are is unclear.
The Russians are securing Sevastopol, which, being their only warm water European port is as vital to their economy as the pipelines that cross the Ukraine. The Crimea and western Ukraine are ethnically Russian (60% or more) and so the Russian claims of protecting their own are not entirely fatuous.
This is a nasty business and it apalls me that we are involved on any policy level beyond sending some aid.
Then there is this piece that Ace linked to...which just seems rather....odd.
I know there are people who comment here who know a lot more about this than me...have at it in the comments.
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February 06, 2014
This Bodes Ill
Snowmelt from the Sierra Nevada mountans is where the water in southern California, Nevada and to an extent, Arizona comes from.
This is what snowfall in the Sierra Nevada looked like on January 18 of 2013, which was actually a very bad drought year.
This is what it looked like on the same date this year..
There is more here (via)
Forget the agricultural debacle for a moment...water for the cities is going to be a first order calamity. It's already pretty bad.
This is what snowfall in the Sierra Nevada looked like on January 18 of 2013, which was actually a very bad drought year.
This is what it looked like on the same date this year..
There is more here (via)
Forget the agricultural debacle for a moment...water for the cities is going to be a first order calamity. It's already pretty bad.
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February 04, 2014
Jasper Has Passed On
James Lileks bids farewell to his friend of 19 years.
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November 09, 2013
All Thouse Hurricanes We Didn't Get
....just hit the Philippines at once.
Haiyan hit the Philippines with sea-level winds of nearly 200 mph scoring a direct hit in Cebu.
All of the Philippine islands are pretty mountainous and with this much rain ( reports of at least ten inches in a few hours) means mudslides and inland flooding on top of a 20 foot storm surge.
Cyclones of this intensity are rare but not unheard of. However, they rarely hit land at anything like this strength. The last one to do so was Hurricane Camille which hit the southern US back in 1968 and there have been some slightly weaker storms that hit Asia.
The Phillipines gets hit with several typhoons a year, but this is in a category all its own. Worse, this storm comes on the heels of a major earthquake which softened up the infrastructure and meant many people were still in tents. This is looking to be an almost unreal calamity.
Indeed, things do not look good for Tacloban, the capital of Leyte.
UPDATE: At least 10,000 dead.
UPDATE 2: ...in Tacloban alone....
Haiyan hit the Philippines with sea-level winds of nearly 200 mph scoring a direct hit in Cebu.
All of the Philippine islands are pretty mountainous and with this much rain ( reports of at least ten inches in a few hours) means mudslides and inland flooding on top of a 20 foot storm surge.
Cyclones of this intensity are rare but not unheard of. However, they rarely hit land at anything like this strength. The last one to do so was Hurricane Camille which hit the southern US back in 1968 and there have been some slightly weaker storms that hit Asia.
The Phillipines gets hit with several typhoons a year, but this is in a category all its own. Worse, this storm comes on the heels of a major earthquake which softened up the infrastructure and meant many people were still in tents. This is looking to be an almost unreal calamity.
UPDATE: At least 10,000 dead.
UPDATE 2: ...in Tacloban alone....
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November 03, 2013
Central Texas
Wow , Austin got clobbered.
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October 20, 2013
The Root Cause of Our Problem
The Anchoress has found something deeply worrisome. It is all the more
so because, as someone who spends a fair amount of time on a college
campus, I find bonecrushing historical ignorance unnervingly unsurprising....and yet...
... even by the abysmal standards set by today's low expectations, a couple of the answers here are genuinely mortifying.
... even by the abysmal standards set by today's low expectations, a couple of the answers here are genuinely mortifying.
...For instance, while it would normally be somewhat heartening to hear a College Freshman know the name Franz Ferdinand, the context in which the name was invoked is rather dismaying.
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May 21, 2013
Footprints of a Monster
I got this grim but interesting image from The Daily Mail, which has some amazing and very sad pictures.of the tornado damage in Oklahoma and Kansas.
It's bad....and there are more storms on the way.
more...
It's bad....and there are more storms on the way.
more...
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